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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
2020 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2020 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
RaidersLas Vegas34
BY 4final margin
PanthersCarolina30
Las Vegas Raiders 34 at Carolina Panthers 30. Final.
Raiders -3 ✓O 48 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 1
Las Vegas Raiders 34, Panthers 30 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 8:41, 2nd and 8, on Robbie Chosen — 32.2 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:41 · 2nd and 8
Robbie Chosen
Panthers
(8:41) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right to 11-R.Anderson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-20-D.Arnette, Defensive Holding, declined.
Raiders closed -3 and covered, winning by 4.
Las Vegas Raiders 34–30. Biggest swing: Q4 8:41, Panthers +32.2% win probability on one snap.
32.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Derek CarrRaidersQ4 5:06(5:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 13-H.Renfrow (24-R.Douglas). PENALTY on CAR-52-T.Whitehead, Defensive Pass Interference, 18 yards, enforced at CAR 35 - No Play.
13.4pts
Alex ArmahRaidersQ4 1:23(1:23) 40-A.Armah up the middle to LV 46 for no gain (96-C.Ferrell; 42-C.Littleton).
18.8pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Raiders won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Raiders won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Panthers at 4 chunk plays.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Raiders won this one — +0.36 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at +0.17 expected points per dropback.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Raiders won this one — +0.25 expected points per snap, against Panthers at +0.12 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Raiders162 of 175 plays carry both curves
(8:41) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right to 11-R.Anderson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-20-D.Arnette, Defensive Holding, declined.
Swing +32.2 for PanthersExpected points +6.40 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 3 points higher than the market did.play 145
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 8:41CAR +32% win prob(8:41) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right to 11-R.Anderson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-20-D.Arnette, Defensive Holding, declined.
4th · 1:23LV +19% win prob(1:23) 40-A.Armah up the middle to LV 46 for no gain (96-C.Ferrell; 42-C.Littleton).
4th · 5:06CAR +13% win prob(5:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 13-H.Renfrow (24-R.Douglas). PENALTY on CAR-52-T.Whitehead, Defensive Pass Interference, 18 yards, enforced at CAR 35 - No Play.
1st · 6:30CAR +13% win prob(6:30) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 11-H.Ruggs pushed ob at CAR 1 for 45 yards (33-T.Boston).
4th · 4:14CAR +13% win prob(4:14) 28-J.Jacobs right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:09CAR +10% win prob(13:09) 28-J.Jacobs right end to CAR 32 for 14 yards (97-Y.Gross-Matos; 54-S.Thompson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Jacobs's 6-yard rushing touchdown with 4:14 left in the 4th put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:07Joey Slye·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder J.Charlton · snap J.Jansen+30–3
4th4:14Josh Jacobs·6-yd TD run6-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+734–30
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Raiderscategory by categoryPanthers
Raiders6–2Panthers
372Total yards390
6.1Yards per play5.9
56%Success rate45%
55%Third-down rate54%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays4
21First downs22
0Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Raiders ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.25Raiders: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.12Panthers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.36Raiders: +0.36 expected points added per play
+0.17Panthers: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Raiders: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.04Panthers: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 61 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Panthers’s 66 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 5, Panthers 4.
NoteRaiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CAR's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 4.5 points clear of the next team along.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Panthers0.0%
off script — stayed blocked · −13.4 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−2.25× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 13.4 points below their season mean of 13.4% and 2.3 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q1Q3Q4
T.Bridgewater pass+36% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(8:41) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right to 11-R.Anderson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-20-D.Arnette, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q4 8:41 · Panthers · 2nd & 8 at CAR 25 · gained 75 · +6.40 EP · +36.0% win probability
160 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 77 yards from the CAR 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
46%
Yards
762
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.3063%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.4464%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.3136%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.3425%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11+0.0127%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.1767%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Panthers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 30
Raiders0Panthers3
Field goal6 plays, from the Panthers 37 to the Raiders 29
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Raiders6Panthers3
Raiders7Panthers3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Panthers 1
Raiders7Panthers9
Touchdown12 plays, from the Panthers 37 to the Raiders 6
Drive ended3 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 29
2nd quarter2 plays
Drive ended2 plays, from the Raiders 33 to the Raiders 41
1st quarter3 plays
Drive ended3 plays, from the Raiders 48 to the Panthers 46
2nd quarter1 plays
1st quarter2 plays
Drive ended2 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the Panthers 27
2nd quarter3 plays
Drive ended3 plays, from the Panthers 27 to the Panthers 6
1st quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
2nd quarter39 plays
Raiders10Panthers9
Field goal3 plays, from the Panthers 7 to the Panthers 2
Raiders10Panthers12
Field goal9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Raiders 28
Raiders16Panthers12
Raiders17Panthers12
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Panthers 23
Raiders17Panthers15
Field goal16 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Raiders 13
3rd quarter1 plays
1st quarter2 plays
Drive ended2 plays, from the Panthers 47 to midfield
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 11 to the Panthers 18
Raiders20Panthers15
Field goal7 plays, from the Raiders 49 to the Panthers 36
Punt5 plays
Raiders26Panthers15
Raiders27Panthers15
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 49 to the Panthers 7
Drive ended10 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Raiders 26
The period ended1 play
4th quarter47 plays
Raiders27Panthers21
Raiders27Panthers22
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 29 to the Raiders 3
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Raiders27Panthers28
Raiders27Panthers30
Touchdown3 plays, from the Panthers 23 to the Panthers 25
Raiders33Panthers30
Raiders34Panthers30
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Panthers 6
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Raiders 46
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 46 to the Panthers 46
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
