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Miami Dolphins 11 at New England Patriots 21. Final.
Patriots -7.5 ✓U 41.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 1
New England Patriots 21, Dolphins 11 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:37, 1st and 10, on Adrian Phillips — 9.3 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:37 · 1st and 10
Adrian Phillips
Patriots
(:37) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle intended for 84-I.Ford INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Phillips at NE 39. 21-A.Phillips to NE 44 for 5 yards (19-J.Grant).
Patriots closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 10.
New England Patriots 21–11. Biggest swing: Q2 0:37, Patriots +9.3% win probability on one snap.
9.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jordan HowardDolphinsQ4 10:35(10:35) 68-R.Hunt reported in as eligible. 34-J.Howard left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
5.6pts
Cam NewtonPatriotsQ4 6:08(6:08) (Shotgun) 71-M.Onwenu and 75-J.Herron reported in as eligible. 1-C.Newton left tackle to MIA 1 for 4 yards (55-J.Baker, 92-Z.Sieler). PENALTY on MIA-55-J.Baker, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 0 yards, enforced at MIA 1.
5.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 3 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.32 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.06 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.17 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 4 chunk plays.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Dolphins147 of 156 plays carry both curves
(:37) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle intended for 84-I.Ford INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Phillips at NE 39. 21-A.Phillips to NE 44 for 5 yards (19-J.Grant).
Swing +9.3 for PatriotsExpected points +3.14 for PatriotsThe model had Dolphins 11 points higher than the market did.play 71
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:37MIA +9% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle intended for 84-I.Ford INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Phillips at NE 39. 21-A.Phillips to NE 44 for 5 yards (19-J.Grant).
4th · 10:35NE +6% win prob(10:35) 68-R.Hunt reported in as eligible. 34-J.Howard left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 6:08NE +5% win prob(6:08) (Shotgun) 71-M.Onwenu and 75-J.Herron reported in as eligible. 1-C.Newton left tackle to MIA 1 for 4 yards (55-J.Baker, 92-Z.Sieler). PENALTY on MIA-55-J.Baker, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 0 yards, enforced at MIA 1.
4th · 10:31NE +5% win prob(10:31) 11-J.Edelman right end pushed ob at NE 48 for 23 yards (55-J.Baker). PENALTY on MIA-55-J.Baker, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NE 48.
1st · 5:11MIA +5% win prob(5:11) 34-J.Howard up the middle to MIA 42 for -3 yards (50-C.Winovich).
2nd · 0:11MIA +5% win prob(:11) (Shotgun) 34-R.Burkhead up the middle to MIA 27 for 6 yards (29-Br.Jones).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cam Newton's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 13:17 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd13:17Cam Newton·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd3:57Jason Sanders·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap B.Ferguson+33–7
Patriots ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.17Dolphins: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.16Patriots: +0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.25Dolphins: −0.25 expected points added per play
−0.12Patriots: −0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Dolphins: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.32Patriots: +0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 58 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Patriots’s 62 at 35%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 2, Patriots 4.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · −1.9 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Patriots14.7%
right on their number · +2.5 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -9.5 pts, 12.0 points below their season mean of 2.6 pts and 1.9 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
73Austin JacksonOT · Every snap100%62 snaps
66Solomon KindleyOG · Every snap100%62 snaps
75Ereck FlowersT · Every snap100%62 snaps
77Jesse DavisG · Every snap100%62 snaps
14Ryan FitzpatrickQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
67Ted KarrasC · Every snap100%62 snaps
18Preston WilliamsWR · Full-time90%56 snaps
84Isaiah FordWR · Heavy rotation74%46 snaps
88Mike GesickiTE · Heavy rotation73%45 snaps
37Myles GaskinRB · Heavy rotation63%39 snaps
19Jakeem GrantWR · Heavy rotation53%33 snaps
11DeVante ParkerWR · Rotational37%23 snaps
22Matt BreidaRB · Situational23%14 snaps
81Durham SmytheTE · Situational21%13 snaps
80Adam ShaheenTE · Situational19%12 snaps
27Chandler CoxFB · Situational18%11 snaps
34Jordan HowardRB · Situational15%9 snaps
32Patrick LairdRB · Situational6%4 snaps
86Mack HollinsWR · Situational5%3 snaps
68Robert HuntOT · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 5
Jason StrowbridgeDEClayton FejedelemFSAdam PankeyGMalcolm PerryRBLynn BowdenRB
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Fitzpatrick pass−12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:37) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle intended for 84-I.Ford INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Phillips at NE 39. 21-A.Phillips to NE 44 for 5 yards (19-J.Grant).
Q2 0:37 · Dolphins · 1st & 10 at NE 47 · gained nothing · -3.14 EP · −12.4% win probability
145 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 156 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 80 yards from the NE 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
156 of 156 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
156
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
51%
Yards
628
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.3067%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.0640%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20+0.3130%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.2043%
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR7-0.4829%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.4740%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter31 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 34
Drive ended2 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 27
Drive ended2 plays, from the Patriots 37 to the Patriots 42
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 46 to the Patriots 49
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 11 to the Dolphins 45
The period ended8 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Dolphins 29
2nd quarter51 plays
Dolphins0Patriots6
Dolphins0Patriots7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 24 to the Dolphins 4
Intercepted5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 39
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Dolphins 31
Dolphins3Patriots7
Field goal10 plays, from the Dolphins 13 to the Patriots 28
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Dolphins 8 to the Patriots 47
No good9 plays, from the Patriots 44 to the Dolphins 27
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter32 plays
Dolphins3Patriots13
Dolphins3Patriots14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Dolphins 11
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 30
Drive ended13 plays, from the Patriots 21 to the Dolphins 10
The period ended4 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Dolphins 39
4th quarter42 plays
Dolphins9Patriots14
Dolphins11Patriots14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 42 to the Patriots 1
Dolphins11Patriots20
Dolphins11Patriots21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Dolphins 1
Intercepted13 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Patriots 10
The period ended5 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 30
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -7.5
Closing total
41.5
Dolphins moneyline
+278
Patriots moneyline
-327
Patriots closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 32 — under by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 73°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the south; mainly clear.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Dolphins 7 days · Patriots 7 days
Coaches
Brian Flores vs Bill Belichick
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 1:03MIA +4% win prob(1:03) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 15-N.Harry to MIA 1 for 9 yards (55-J.Baker). FUMBLES (55-J.Baker), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback.
1st · 9:43MIA +4% win prob(9:43) 1-C.Newton sacked at NE 39 for -9 yards (55-J.Baker).
