2020 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2020 · Gillette Stadium

Miami Dolphins

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -7.5 ✓U 41.5 ✓Patriots closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 10.

New England Patriots 21–11. Biggest swing: Q2 0:37, MIA +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:37MIA — NE MIA ball · 1st & 10NE 76%

(:37) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle intended for 84-I.Ford INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Phillips at NE 39. 21-A.Phillips to NE 44 for 5 yards (19-J.Grant).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:37MIA +9% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle intended for 84-I.Ford INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Phillips at NE 39. 21-A.Phillips to NE 44 for 5 yards (19-J.Grant).
Q4 · 10:35NE +6% win prob(10:35) 68-R.Hunt reported in as eligible. 34-J.Howard left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 6:08NE +5% win prob(6:08) (Shotgun) 71-M.Onwenu and 75-J.Herron reported in as eligible. 1-C.Newton left tackle to MIA 1 for 4 yards (55-J.Baker, 92-Z.Sieler). PENALTY on MIA-55-J.Baker, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 0 yards, enforced at MIA 1.
Q4 · 10:31NE +5% win prob(10:31) 11-J.Edelman right end pushed ob at NE 48 for 23 yards (55-J.Baker). PENALTY on MIA-55-J.Baker, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NE 48.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Patriots
Offensive plays	58	62
Total yards	272	358 (edge)
Yards per play	4.7	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.17	0.16 (edge)
Success rate	50%	61% (edge)
Dropback rate	59%	35%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	-0.12 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06	0.32 (edge)
Third downs	5/12	5/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	26 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Ryan FitzpatrickQB

20/30, 191 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-8.4 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Cam NewtonQB

15/19, 155 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

3.4 expected points added · +4.3% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Cam NewtonQB

15 att, 75 yds, 2 TD

6.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Myles GaskinRB

9 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Julian EdelmanWR

5/7 for 57 yds, 0 TD

37% of team targets · 2.6 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

DeVante ParkerWR

4/4 for 47 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 1.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 25	5	9	2:05	Punt
2	NE	NE 20	7	20	4:48	Punt
3	NE	MIA 11	10	40	3:44	Punt
4	NE	NE 20	12	80	6:11	Touchdown
5	MIA	MIA 25	5	13	1:33	Interception
6	NE	MIA 35	4	-2	2:30	Punt
7	MIA	MIA 13	10	59	5:16	Turnover on downs
8	NE	NE 25	5	9	1:40	Punt
9	MIA	MIA 8	9	55	1:42	Interception
10	NE	NE 44	6	29	0:30	Turnover on downs
11	MIA	MIA 35	1	0	0:01	End of half
12	NE	NE 25	10	75	4:46	Touchdown
13	MIA	MIA 25	5	5	1:32	Punt
14	NE	NE 21	12	68	7:48	Turnover on downs
15	MIA	MIA 20	12	54	5:23	Touchdown
16	NE	NE 25	12	60	5:08	Touchdown
17	MIA	MIA 25	12	46	3:55	Interception
18	NE	NE 20	3	10	1:28	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Fitzpatrick	20/30	191	0	3	1	-8.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Myles Gaskin	9	40	4.4	0	-1.0
Matt Breida	5	22	4.4	0	-0.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick	5	18	3.6	0	1.5
Jordan Howard	8	7	0.9	1	-2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
DeVante Parker	4	4	47	13%	1.8
Preston Williams	2	7	41	23%	-3.4
Mike Gesicki	3	5	30	17%	-4.8
Myles Gaskin	4	4	26	13%	1.5
Jakeem Grant	3	3	25	10%	2.0
Isaiah Ford	2	5	13	17%	-4.2
Patrick Laird	2	2	9	7%	-0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jerome Baker	10	4	1.0	0
Brandon Jones	5	2	0.0	0
Kyle Van Noy	5	0	1.0	0
Eric Rowe	2	2	0.0	0
Elandon Roberts	2	1	0.0	0
Jamal Perry	2	1	0.0	0
Bobby McCain	3	0	0.0	1
Byron Jones	1	2	0.0	0
Christian Wilkins	2	0	0.0	2
Emmanuel Ogbah	2	0	0.0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	15/19	155	0	0	2	3.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Cam Newton	15	75	5.0	2	6.8
Sony Michel	10	37	3.7	1	1.7
Rex Burkhead	7	32	4.6	0	1.4
J.J. Taylor	4	28	7.0	0	1.8
Julian Edelman	1	23	23.0	0	2.2
James White	5	22	4.4	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Julian Edelman	5	7	57	37%	2.6
N'Keal Harry	5	6	39	32%	-3.3
James White	3	3	30	16%	0.4
Ryan Izzo	1	2	25	11%	1.3
J.J. Taylor	1	1	4	5%	-0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Adrian Phillips	6	1	1	1
Devin McCourty	3	2	0	0
Stephon Gilmore	3	1	1	1
Brandon Copeland	1	3	0	0
Adam Butler	2	1	0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	1	2	0	0
Chase Winovich	2	1	0	0
Lawrence Guy	1	1	0	0
Jonathan Jones	2	0	0	0
J.C. Jackson	2	0	1	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -7.5
Closing total: 41.5
MIA moneyline: +278
NE moneyline: -327

Patriots closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 32 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 70°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: MIA 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Brian Flores vs Bill Belichick

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.