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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
Buffalo Bills 27, Jets 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 11:42, 3rd and 1, on Josh Allen — 8.3 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:42 · 3rd and 1
Josh Allen
Jets
(11:42) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen right tackle to NYJ 27 for 6 yards (20-M.Maye). FUMBLES (20-M.Maye), RECOVERED by NYJ-30-B.McDougald at NYJ 21. 30-B.McDougald to NYJ 19 for -2 yards (26-D.Singletary).
15.2 mph wind
Bills closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Buffalo Bills 27–17. Biggest swing: Q1 11:42, Jets +8.3% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.2 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
8.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Sam DarnoldBillsQ1 14:03(14:03) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 82-J.Crowder.
4.4pts
Christopher HerndonBillsQ4 14:34(14:34) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 89-C.Herndon to NYJ 41 for -5 yards (21-J.Poyer). FUMBLES (21-J.Poyer), RECOVERED by BUF-55-J.Hughes at NYJ 38. 55-J.Hughes to NYJ 38 for no gain (77-M.Becton). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4.8pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Jets owned this one and still lost it — -0.01 expected points per carry, against Bills at -0.51 expected points per carry.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.31 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.24 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bills won this one — 8 of 14 on third down, against Jets at 4 of 11 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Jets174 of 186 plays carry both curves
(11:42) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen right tackle to NYJ 27 for 6 yards (20-M.Maye). FUMBLES (20-M.Maye), RECOVERED by NYJ-30-B.McDougald at NYJ 21. 30-B.McDougald to NYJ 19 for -2 yards (26-D.Singletary).
Swing −8.3 for BillsExpected points −4.01 for BillsThe model had Jets 13 points higher than the market did.play 12
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:42NYJ +8% win prob(11:42) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen right tackle to NYJ 27 for 6 yards (20-M.Maye). FUMBLES (20-M.Maye), RECOVERED by NYJ-30-B.McDougald at NYJ 21. 30-B.McDougald to NYJ 19 for -2 yards (26-D.Singletary).
4th · 14:34NYJ +5% win prob(14:34) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 89-C.Herndon to NYJ 41 for -5 yards (21-J.Poyer). FUMBLES (21-J.Poyer), RECOVERED by BUF-55-J.Hughes at NYJ 38. 55-J.Hughes to NYJ 38 for no gain (77-M.Becton). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 14:03NYJ +4% win prob(14:03) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 82-J.Crowder.
3rd · 1:37NYJ +4% win prob(1:37) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
1st · 10:58NYJ +3% win prob(10:58) 26-L.Bell right tackle to NYJ 20 for -4 yards (61-J.Zimmer).
3rd · 5:23BUF +3% win prob(5:23) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 82-J.Crowder for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Allen's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 5:44 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:44Josh Allen·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
Bills ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.17Jets: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.03Bills: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.24Jets: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.31Bills: +0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Jets: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.51Bills: −0.51 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 51 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Bills’s 79 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, Bills 8.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 33 pts
right on their number · −3.5 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Bills13.5%
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 67.5%, 14.1 points above their season mean of 53.4% and 1.8 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen right−11% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:42) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen right tackle to NYJ 27 for 6 yards (20-M.Maye). FUMBLES (20-M.Maye), RECOVERED by NYJ-30-B.McDougald at NYJ 21. 30-B.McDougald to NYJ 19 for -2 yards (26-D.Singletary).
Q1 11:42 · Bills · 3rd & 1 at NYJ 33 · gained 6 · -4.01 EP · −10.5% win probability
172 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 86 yards from the NYJ 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
42%
Yards
658
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53+0.0862%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.1383%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR22+0.1668%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.6217%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 0 WR1——
Bills0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 9 to the Jets 12
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Bills 46 to the Jets 33
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 19 to the Jets 24
Jets0Bills6
Jets0Bills7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 45 to the Jets 2
Punt5 plays
Jets0Bills13
Jets0Bills14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 18 to the Jets 4
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 37
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt1 play
Jets0Bills20
Jets0Bills21
Touchdown16 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Jets 13
Intercepted5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 29
Fumble lost12 plays, from midfield to the Jets 13
Jets3Bills21
Field goal15 plays, from the Jets 12 to the Bills 13
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 28
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Jets 39
No good9 plays, from the Bills 36 to the Jets 17
Jets9Bills21
Jets10Bills21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Jets 31
No good9 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Jets 16
The period ended4 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Jets 36
4th quarter52 plays
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Jets 46
Jets10Bills24
Field goal11 plays, from the Jets 38 to the Jets 4
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 27
Jets10Bills27
Field goal14 plays, from the Bills 36 to the Jets 1
Jets16Bills27
Jets17Bills27
Touchdown15 plays, from the Jets 14 to the Bills 2
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -6.5
Closing total
39.5
Jets moneyline
+242
Bills moneyline
-279
Bills closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 44 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 69°F at kickoff; windy at 15 mph out of the south-west; 0.03 in of precipitation; moderate drizzle.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Jets 7 days · Bills 7 days
Coaches
Adam Gase vs Sean McDermott
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
NoteWind at 15.2 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
1st · 10:17NYJ +3% win prob(10:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 15-C.Hogan to NYJ 20 for no gain (49-T.Edmunds).
1st · 5:49BUF +3% win prob(5:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 15-J.Brown. PENALTY on NYJ-35-P.Desir, Defensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at NYJ 5 - No Play.
Jetscategory by categoryBills
Jets0
Bills6
