2020 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2020 · New Era Field

New York Jets

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -6.5 ✓O 39.5 ✓15 mph windBills closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Buffalo Bills 27–17. Biggest swing: Q1 11:42, NYJ +8% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 11:42NYJ — BUF BUF ball · 3rd & 1BUF 81%

(11:42) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen right tackle to NYJ 27 for 6 yards (20-M.Maye). FUMBLES (20-M.Maye), RECOVERED by NYJ-30-B.McDougald at NYJ 21. 30-B.McDougald to NYJ 19 for -2 yards (26-D.Singletary).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 11:42NYJ +8% win prob(11:42) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen right tackle to NYJ 27 for 6 yards (20-M.Maye). FUMBLES (20-M.Maye), RECOVERED by NYJ-30-B.McDougald at NYJ 21. 30-B.McDougald to NYJ 19 for -2 yards (26-D.Singletary).
Q4 · 14:34NYJ +5% win prob(14:34) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 89-C.Herndon to NYJ 41 for -5 yards (21-J.Poyer). FUMBLES (21-J.Poyer), RECOVERED by BUF-55-J.Hughes at NYJ 38. 55-J.Hughes to NYJ 38 for no gain (77-M.Becton). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q1 · 14:03NYJ +4% win prob(14:03) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short right to 82-J.Crowder.
Q3 · 1:37NYJ +4% win prob(1:37) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Bills
Offensive plays	51	79
Total yards	254	406 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	5.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.17	0.03 (edge)
Success rate	37%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	73%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24	0.31 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.51
Third downs	4/11	8/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	26 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	2	2

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

33/46, 312 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

13.8 expected points added · +6.9% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

21/35, 215 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-4.3 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

14 att, 57 yds, 1 TD

-6.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

9 att, 30 yds, 0 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Jamison CrowderWR

7/13 for 115 yds, 1 TD

39% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

8/9 for 86 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 9.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 9	5	3	1:16	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 46	6	27	2:11	Fumble
3	NYJ	NYJ 19	4	1	2:01	Punt
4	BUF	BUF 45	8	52	3:54	Touchdown
5	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	0	0:30	Punt
6	BUF	BUF 18	7	44	2:36	Touchdown
7	NYJ	NYJ 25	7	19	2:46	Punt
8	BUF	BUF 32	15	63	7:58	Touchdown
9	NYJ	NYJ 25	4	9	1:00	Interception
10	BUF	50	11	37	4:21	Fumble
11	NYJ	NYJ 12	10	70	1:27	Turnover on downs
12	BUF	BUF 25	5	0	1:20	Punt
13	NYJ	NYJ 22	7	13	3:34	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 36	7	42	4:08	Turnover on downs
15	NYJ	NYJ 28	4	72	0:48	Touchdown
16	BUF	BUF 32	9	37	3:37	Turnover on downs
17	NYJ	NYJ 24	4	-1	2:06	Fumble
18	BUF	NYJ 38	10	34	3:49	Turnover on downs
19	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	2	0:54	Punt
20	BUF	BUF 36	11	70	6:29	Turnover on downs
21	NYJ	NYJ 14	13	66	2:21	Touchdown
22	BUF	NYJ 47	3	0	0:54	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 72 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	21/35	215	1	1	3	-4.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Frank Gore	6	24	4.0	0	-0.4
Le'Veon Bell	6	14	2.3	0	-2.0
Josh Adams	2	8	4.0	1	2.3
Sam Darnold	1	6	6.0	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jamison Crowder	7	13	115	1	39%	3.2
Christopher Herndon	6	7	37	0	21%	-4.4
Le'Veon Bell	2	2	32	0	6%	0.7
Breshad Perriman	3	5	17	0	15%	-1.8
Josh Adams	2	2	14	0	6%	0.6
Chris Hogan	1	4	0	0	12%	-3.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Marcus Maye	7	3	2.0	2
Brian Poole	7	1	1.0	1
Neville Hewitt	3	5	0.0	1
Blessuan Austin	6	1	0.0	0
Bradley McDougald	5	2	0.0	1
Pierre Desir	4	2	0.0	0
Harvey Langi	4	1	0.0	1
Nate Hairston	4	1	0.0	0
Tarell Basham	4	0	0.0	0
Frankie Luvu	2	2	0.0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	33/46	312	2	0	3	13.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Allen	14	57	4.1	1	-6.0
Devin Singletary	9	30	3.3	0	-1.5
Zack Moss	9	11	1.2	0	-5.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	8	9	86	0	20%	9.0
John Brown	6	10	70	1	22%	5.2
Cole Beasley	4	7	58	0	16%	2.7
Dawson Knox	2	3	26	0	7%	2.0
Devin Singletary	5	7	23	0	16%	-2.2
Isaiah McKenzie	3	3	17	0	7%	1.2
Zack Moss	3	4	16	1	9%	-0.3
Gabe Davis	2	2	16	0	4%	0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
A.J. Klein	3	2	0.0	0	0
Justin Zimmer	2	2	0.0	0	0
Taron Johnson	3	1	0.0	0	1
Tyrel Dodson	1	3	1.0	0	0
Matt Milano	3	1	0.0	1	1
Micah Hyde	2	2	0.0	0	0
Jordan Poyer	4	0	0.0	0	0
Tremaine Edmunds	2	1	0.0	0	0
Levi Wallace	2	0	0.0	0	0
Jerry Hughes	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -6.5
Closing total: 39.5
NYJ moneyline: +242
BUF moneyline: -279

Bills closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 44 — over by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 67°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: NYJ 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Adam Gase vs Sean McDermott

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.