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Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Eagles177 of 189 plays carry both curves
(7:26) 34-P.Barber right end to PHI 3 for 1 yard (31-N.Robey).
Swing +15.7 for CommandersExpected points +2.24 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 13 points higher than the market did.play 156
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:26WAS +16% win prob(7:26) 34-P.Barber right end to PHI 3 for 1 yard (31-N.Robey).
4th · 11:21WAS +11% win prob(11:21) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short left to 82-L.Thomas to PHI 38 for 8 yards (22-M.Epps).
4th · 4:35PHI +11% win prob(4:35) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short middle to 86-Z.Ertz.
3rd · 11:53PHI +9% win prob(11:53) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left intended for 82-J.Hightower INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Moreland at WAS 48. 20-J.Moreland to PHI 20 for 32 yards (10-D.Jackson).
3rd · 9:28WAS +8% win prob(9:28) (Shotgun) 34-P.Barber right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:25PHI +8% win prob(3:25) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at PHI 21 for -4 yards (sack split by 94-D.Payne and 99-C.Young). FUMBLES (94-D.Payne) [94-D.Payne], RECOVERED by WAS-91-R.Kerrigan at PHI 22. 91-R.Kerrigan to PHI 16 for 6 yards (30-C.Clement). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Peyton Barber's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 6:17 left in the 4th put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
4th14:18Dustin Hopkins·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+317–17
4th6:17Peyton Barber·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+717–24
4th3:29Dustin Hopkins·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+317–27
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryCommanders
Eagles5–3Commanders
265Total yards245
4.0Yards per play3.7
37%Success rate28%
36%Third-down rate29%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays3
16First downs16
8Sacks taken3
3Turnovers0
The read
Eagles ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.31Eagles: −0.31 expected points added per play
−0.16Commanders: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.39Eagles: −0.39 expected points added per play
−0.05Commanders: −0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Eagles: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.28Commanders: −0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 67 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Commanders’s 67 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 3, Commanders 5.
NoteEagles outgained Commanders 265-245 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
WAS's sack or hit rate, 26.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 2.9 points clear of the next team along.
50 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.4 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Commanders26.0%
leaned — got home · +10.3 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+1.22× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 9.9 pts, 9.3 points above their season mean of 0.5 pts and 1.9 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Wentz pass−20% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(11:53) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left intended for 82-J.Hightower INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Moreland at WAS 48. 20-J.Moreland to PHI 20 for 32 yards (10-D.Jackson).
Q3 11:53 · Eagles · 1st & 10 at PHI 45 · gained nothing · -7.11 EP · −19.8% win probability
175 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 76 yards from the PHI 4 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
-0.16
Success rate
36%
Yards
504
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR38-0.2068%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.0172%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.6883%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.0427%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.4043%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR5-0.780%
Eagles0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR4——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 27
Eagles6Commanders0
Eagles7Commanders0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Eagles 38 to the Commanders 5
Drive ended2 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Commanders 22
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 41 to the Commanders 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Eagles10Commanders0
Field goal12 plays, from the Eagles 4 to the Commanders 15
The period ended4 plays, from the Eagles 24 to the Eagles 26
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 37 to the Eagles 39
No good9 plays, from the Commanders 15 to the Eagles 30
Eagles16Commanders0
Eagles17Commanders0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Eagles 38 to the Commanders 34
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 45
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 18 to the Eagles 23
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Commanders 31
Intercepted1 play
Eagles17Commanders6
Eagles17Commanders7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Eagles 45 to the Eagles 6
Punt5 plays
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 33
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 16 to the Commanders 22
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Eagles17Commanders13
Eagles17Commanders14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 1
No good11 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Commanders 22
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSix
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Eagles 12 to the Commanders 45
The period ended3 plays, from the Eagles 46 to the Eagles 27
4th quarter53 plays
Eagles17Commanders17
Field goal3 plays, from the Eagles 23 to the Eagles 20
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Eagles17Commanders23
Eagles17Commanders24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Eagles 48 to the Eagles 3
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 42
Eagles17Commanders27
Field goal6 plays, from the Eagles 42 to the Eagles 22
Fumble lost2 plays
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Eagles 4
The period ended4 plays, from the Eagles 14 to the Eagles 29
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
