2020 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2020 · FedExField

Philadelphia Eagles

Washington CommandersWinner

PHI -5.5 upsetO 41.5 ✓Eagles closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Washington Commanders 27–17. Biggest swing: Q4 7:26, WAS +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 7:26PHI — WAS WAS ball · 4th & 1WAS 54%

(7:26) 34-P.Barber right end to PHI 3 for 1 yard (31-N.Robey).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 7:26WAS +16% win prob(7:26) 34-P.Barber right end to PHI 3 for 1 yard (31-N.Robey).
Q4 · 11:21WAS +11% win prob(11:21) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short left to 82-L.Thomas to PHI 38 for 8 yards (22-M.Epps).
Q4 · 4:35PHI +11% win prob(4:35) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short middle to 86-Z.Ertz.
Q3 · 11:53PHI +9% win prob(11:53) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left intended for 82-J.Hightower INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Moreland at WAS 48. 20-J.Moreland to PHI 20 for 32 yards (10-D.Jackson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Commanders
Offensive plays	67	67
Total yards	265 (edge)	245
Yards per play	4.0 (edge)	3.7
Expected points added / play	-0.31	-0.16 (edge)
Success rate	37% (edge)	28%
Dropback rate	75%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.39	-0.05 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05 (edge)	-0.28
Third downs	5/14 (edge)	5/17
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	16	16
Sacks taken	8	3 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Eagles outgained Commanders 265–245 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Carson WentzQB

24/42, 270 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-19.6 expected points added · -6.4% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Dwayne HaskinsQB

17/31, 178 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-3.5 expected points added · -6.6% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Antonio GibsonRB

9 att, 36 yds, 0 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Boston ScottRB

9 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

Dallas GoedertTE

8/9 for 101 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

5/7 for 61 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 25	5	-1	1:19	Punt
2	PHI	PHI 38	7	57	2:27	Touchdown
3	WAS	WAS 25	6	24	2:16	Punt
4	PHI	PHI 4	11	56	6:45	Turnover on downs
5	WAS	WAS 25	5	0	0:21	Punt
6	PHI	PHI 24	7	10	3:34	Punt
7	WAS	WAS 15	9	50	3:54	Turnover on downs
8	PHI	PHI 38	7	47	2:30	Touchdown
9	WAS	WAS 25	6	17	1:39	Punt
10	PHI	PHI 18	4	5	2:15	Punt
11	WAS	WAS 27	4	2	1:16	Punt
12	PHI	PHI 28	1	0	0:07	Interception
13	WAS	PHI 45	6	45	0:57	Touchdown
14	PHI	PHI 25	5	0	0:33	Punt
15	WAS	WAS 16	1	0	0:07	End of half
16	PHI	PHI 25	5	8	1:36	Punt
17	WAS	WAS 16	4	-8	1:31	Punt
18	PHI	PHI 45	1	0	0:09	Interception
19	WAS	PHI 20	6	20	2:19	Touchdown
20	PHI	PHI 25	10	40	3:50	Turnover on downs
21	WAS	WAS 43	4	-5	1:38	Punt
22	PHI	PHI 12	8	29	2:44	Turnover on downs
23	WAS	PHI 46	5	26	1:58	Turnover on downs
24	PHI	PHI 25	5	-16	1:48	Punt
25	WAS	PHI 48	14	48	6:14	Touchdown
26	PHI	PHI 25	6	17	1:42	Turnover on downs
27	WAS	PHI 42	5	20	1:06	Turnover on downs
28	PHI	PHI 25	2	-3	0:10	Fumble
29	WAS	PHI 16	7	7	2:46	Turnover on downs
30	PHI	PHI 14	3	15	0:29	End of game

0 of 30 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 57 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	24/42	270	2	2	8	-19.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Boston Scott	9	35	3.9	-1.6
Corey Clement	6	19	3.2	-1.1
Carson Wentz	1	2	2.0	0.8
Jason Huntley	1	1	1.0	1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dallas Goedert	8	9	101	1	21%	6.7
Jalen Reagor	1	4	55	0	10%	1.7
DeSean Jackson	2	7	46	0	17%	0.3
Greg Ward	5	7	31	0	17%	1.1
Boston Scott	2	2	19	0	5%	-0.5
Zach Ertz	3	7	18	1	17%	-1.5
Corey Clement	2	2	2	0	5%	-1.3
John Hightower	1	4	-2	0	10%	-7.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nathan Gerry	5	5	0.0	0
Rodney McLeod	6	2	0.0	2
Duke Riley	3	3	0.5	0
Jalen Mills	4	1	0.0	0
Hassan Ridgeway	3	1	0.0	0
Avonte Maddox	4	0	0.0	1
Rudy Ford	3	0	0.0	0
Vinny Curry	1	2	0.5	0
Josh Sweat	2	1	1.0	0
Darius Slay	2	1	0.0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dwayne Haskins	17/31	178	1	0	3	-3.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Antonio Gibson	9	36	4.0	0	-2.4
Peyton Barber	17	29	1.7	2	-3.3
Dwayne Haskins	7	17	2.4	0	-2.3
J.D. McKissic	3	-2	-0.7	0	-2.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	5	7	61	0	23%	1.5
Steven Sims	3	3	50	0	10%	4.3
Logan Thomas	4	8	37	1	27%	2.4
Dontrelle Inman	2	5	21	0	17%	-0.4
Antonio Gibson	2	2	8	0	7%	-0.6
J.D. McKissic	1	5	1	0	17%	-5.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Troy Apke	4	3	0.0	0	0
Jon Bostic	5	2	1.0	0	0
Jimmy Moreland	5	1	0.0	1	1
Landon Collins	4	1	0.0	0	0
Matt Ioannidis	2	2	1.5	0	0
Chase Young	2	2	1.5	0	0
Kevin Pierre-Louis	3	1	0.0	0	0
Ronald Darby	2	2	0.0	0	1
Jonathan Allen	1	2	0.5	0	0
Kamren Curl	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -5.5
Closing total: 41.5
PHI moneyline: -227
WAS moneyline: +200

Eagles closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 44 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 76°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: PHI 7 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Doug Pederson vs Ron Rivera

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.