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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
Pittsburgh Steelers 26 at New York Giants 16. Final.
Steelers -6 ✓U 44 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 1
Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Giants 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 11:40, 4th and 6 — 18.3 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:40 · 4th and 6
Unnamed on the sheet
Giants
(11:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to PIT 12, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-D.Johnson MUFFS catch, touched at PIT 10, RECOVERED by NYG-52-D.Downs at PIT 3.
Steelers closed -6 and covered, winning by 10.
Pittsburgh Steelers 26–16. Biggest swing: Q1 11:40, Giants +18.3% win probability on one snap.
18.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.J. WattSteelersQ2 12:40(12:40) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 88-E.Engram INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at NYG 36. 90-T.Watt to NYG 36 for no gain (75-C.Fleming).
12.4pts
Cameron HeywardSteelersQ3 3:25(3:25) (No Huddle) 8-D.Jones pass short left intended for 86-D.Slayton INTERCEPTED by 97-C.Heyward (48-B.Dupree) [48-B.Dupree] at PIT 0. Touchback.
14.2pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — -0.13 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.63 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Steelers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Giants at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 2 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Steelers won this one — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.14 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Steelers164 of 174 plays carry both curves
(11:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to PIT 12, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-D.Johnson MUFFS catch, touched at PIT 10, RECOVERED by NYG-52-D.Downs at PIT 3.
Swing +18.3 for GiantsExpected points +5.86 for GiantsThe model had Giants 25 points higher than the market did.play 11
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:40NYG +18% win prob(11:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to PIT 12, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-D.Johnson MUFFS catch, touched at PIT 10, RECOVERED by NYG-52-D.Downs at PIT 3.
3rd · 3:25PIT +14% win prob(3:25) (No Huddle) 8-D.Jones pass short left intended for 86-D.Slayton INTERCEPTED by 97-C.Heyward (48-B.Dupree) [48-B.Dupree] at PIT 0. Touchback.
2nd · 12:40PIT +12% win prob(12:40) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 88-E.Engram INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at NYG 36. 90-T.Watt to NYG 36 for no gain (75-C.Fleming).
2nd · 13:54NYG +10% win prob(13:54) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle to 86-D.Slayton for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:14NYG +8% win prob(:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 13-J.Washington for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:09PIT +8% win prob(13:09) (No Huddle) 26-S.Barkley right tackle to PIT 47 for -5 yards (92-O.Adeniyi).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
James Washington's 13-yard touchdown catch with 0:14 left in the 2nd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:37Graham Gano·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+30–3
1st0:54Chris Boswell·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap K.Canaday+33–3
2nd13:54Darius Slayton·41-yd TD catch41-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones+73–10
2nd9:07JuJu Smith-Schuster·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger · kick no good, hit right upright+69–10
2nd0:14James Washington·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben RoethlisbergerLead never changed again+716–10
4th14:24Chris Boswell·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap K.Canaday+319–10
4th5:28JuJu Smith-Schuster·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+726–10
4th1:56Darius Slayton·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jonesfrom Daniel Jones · two-point no good+626–16
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryGiants
Steelers7–0Giants
351Total yards292
5.6Yards per play4.6
40%Success rate39%
53%Third-down rate53%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays3
19First downs19
2Sacks taken3
0Turnovers2
The read
Steelers ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.63 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Steelers: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.14Giants: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.44Steelers: +0.44 expected points added per play
+0.02Giants: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Steelers: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.63Giants: −0.63 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 63 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Giants’s 64 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 4, Giants 4.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 33 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Giants14.3%
right on their number · −1.5 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -7.3 pts, 13.8 points below their season mean of 6.5 pts and 1.3 times their own 10.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
47 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%64 snaps
71Matt FeilerT · Every snap100%64 snaps
7Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
53Maurkice PounceyC · Every snap100%64 snaps
72Zach BannerT · Full-time92%59 snaps
61Stefen WisniewskiG · Full-time91%58 snaps
18Diontae JohnsonWR · Full-time86%55 snaps
19JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Full-time86%55 snaps
85Eric EbronTE · Heavy rotation63%40 snaps
89Vance McDonaldTE · Heavy rotation59%38 snaps
13James WashingtonWR · Heavy rotation58%37 snaps
24Benny SnellRB · Rotational45%29 snaps
38Jaylen SamuelsRB · Rotational31%20 snaps
11Chase ClaypoolWR · Rotational30%19 snaps
30James ConnerRB · Situational23%15 snaps
76Chukwuma OkoraforT · Situational14%9 snaps
44Derek WattFB · Situational13%8 snaps
69Kevin DotsonOG · Situational9%6 snaps
Inactive · 6
Carlos DavisDTDavid DeCastroGUlysees GilbertLBJoshua DobbsQBAnthony McFarlandRBZach GentryTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Jones pass−23% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(3:25) (No Huddle) 8-D.Jones pass short left intended for 86-D.Slayton INTERCEPTED by 97-C.Heyward (48-B.Dupree) [48-B.Dupree] at PIT 0. Touchback.
Q3 3:25 · Giants · 2nd & 3 at PIT 4 · gained nothing · -6.20 EP · −23.2% win probability
162 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 87 yards from the NYG 9 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
37%
Yards
640
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.2062%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.1283%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR20-0.6345%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.4960%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.2071%
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Steelers 40
Steelers0Giants3
Field goal4 plays, from the Steelers 3 to the Steelers 2
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 30
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Steelers3Giants3
Field goal13 plays, from the Steelers 18 to the Giants 23
The period ended4 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 36
2nd quarter53 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Steelers3Giants9
Steelers3Giants10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Giants 37 to the Steelers 41
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 26
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted1 play
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Steelers9Giants10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Giants 36 to the Giants 10
Punt9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Steelers 44
Punt4 plays
Punt6 plays
Steelers15Giants10
Steelers16Giants10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Steelers 22 to the Giants 13
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 34 to the Giants 44
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.3 seconds
Intercepted19 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Steelers 4
The period ended8 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Giants 18
4th quarter46 plays
Steelers19Giants10
Field goal2 plays, from the Giants 29 to the Giants 18
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 40 to the Giants 44
Steelers25Giants10
Steelers26Giants10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Giants 8
Steelers26Giants16
Touchdown16 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Steelers 7
The period ended10 plays, from the Giants 46 to the Giants 29
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Steelers -6
Closing total
44
Steelers moneyline
-253
Giants moneyline
+221
Steelers closed -6 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 44; the game landed 42 — under by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 69°F at kickoff; breezy at 10 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Steelers 7 days · Giants 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Joe Judge
2nd · 13:59
NYG +8% win prob
(13:59) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 88-E.Engram (23-J.Haden). PENALTY on PIT-23-J.Haden, Defensive Pass Interference, 12 yards, enforced at NYG 47 - No Play.
2nd · 8:04NYG +8% win prob(8:04) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 26-S.Barkley to PIT 44 for 38 yards (23-J.Haden) [90-T.Watt].
