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Seattle Seahawks 38, Falcons 25 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 9:49, 4th and 5, on DK Metcalf — 15.4 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 9:49 · 4th and 5
DK Metcalf
Seahawks
(9:49) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Falcons closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Seattle Seahawks 38–25. Biggest swing: Q3 9:49, Seahawks +15.4% win probability on one snap.
15.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Russell WilsonSeahawksQ1 5:04(5:04) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 16-T.Lockett. PENALTY on ATL-37-R.Allen, Defensive Pass Interference, 41 yards, enforced at SEA 49 - No Play.
15.1pts
Matt RyanSeahawksQ1 2:14(2:14) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 21-T.Gurley (95-B.Mayowa).
13.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 2 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.32 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.01 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.33 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.49 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at +0.11 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Seahawks177 of 190 plays carry both curves
(9:49) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −15.4 for FalconsExpected points −6.73 for FalconsThe model had Falcons 5 points higher than the market did.play 108
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 9:49ATL +15% win prob(9:49) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:04ATL +15% win prob(5:04) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 16-T.Lockett. PENALTY on ATL-37-R.Allen, Defensive Pass Interference, 41 yards, enforced at SEA 49 - No Play.
1st · 2:14SEA +13% win prob(2:14) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 21-T.Gurley (95-B.Mayowa).
1st · 13:05ATL +9% win prob(13:05) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 18-C.Ridley ran ob at SEA 37 for 19 yards.
2nd · 0:17ATL +8% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 83-R.Gage to SEA 30 for 10 yards (33-J.Adams).
1st · 11:59SEA +8% win prob(11:59) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right [91-L.Collier]. PENALTY on ATL-2-M.Ryan, Intentional Grounding, 11 yards, enforced at SEA 32.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chris Carson's 3-yard touchdown catch with 4:48 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:17Younghoe Koo·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+30–3
1st4:48Chris Carson·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell WilsonLead never changed again+77–3
1st1:01Chris Carson·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+714–3
2nd11:30Todd Gurley·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+614–9
2nd0:02Younghoe Koo·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+314–12
3rd9:49DK Metcalf·38-yd TD catch38-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+721–12
3rd5:09Greg Olsen·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+728–12
4th11:24Jason Myers·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+331–12
4th9:42Calvin Ridley·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan · two-point no good+631–18
4th0:39Calvin Ridley·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+738–25
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryFalcons
Seahawks4–5Falcons
384Total yards506
6.7Yards per play6.5
47%Success rate46%
33%Third-down rate50%
4Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays8
21First downs29
3Sacks taken2
0Turnovers2
The read
Falcons ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Seahawks, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.49 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.32Seahawks: +0.32 expected points added per play
−0.01Falcons: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.49Seahawks: +0.49 expected points added per play
+0.11Falcons: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Seahawks: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.33Falcons: −0.33 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 57 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Falcons’s 78 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 5, Falcons 4.
NoteFalcons outgained Seahawks 506-384 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
SEA's pass rate over expected, +15.6 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 4.3 points clear of the next team along.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's early-down pass rate, 71.2%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 0.6 points clear of the next team along.
59 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Falcons23.1%
leaned — got home · +9.8 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+1.71× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.1%, 9.8 points above their season mean of 13.3% and 1.7 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass+18% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(9:49) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 9:49 · Seahawks · 4th & 5 at ATL 38 · gained 38 · +6.73 EP · +18.1% win probability
175 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 190 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 190 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 77 yards from the SEA 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
190 of 190 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
190
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
41%
Yards
889
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.1294%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.3375%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.3544%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.1255%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.6633%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
190 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
190 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Seahawks0Falcons3
Field goal10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Seahawks 31
Seahawks6Falcons3
Seahawks7Falcons3
Touchdown15 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to the Falcons 3
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Seahawks 38
Seahawks13Falcons3
Seahawks14Falcons3
Touchdown4 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Falcons 19
The period ended4 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 35
2nd quarter56 plays
Seahawks14Falcons9
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Seahawks 1
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 28
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 44
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to the Seahawks 45
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 11 to the Falcons 15
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Seahawks 45
Seahawks14Falcons12
Field goal15 plays, from the Falcons 9 to the Seahawks 30
3rd quarter36 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Seahawks20Falcons12
Seahawks21Falcons12
Touchdown13 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Falcons 36
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 33
Seahawks27Falcons12
Seahawks28Falcons12
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 36 to the Falcons 7
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Seahawks 11
The period ended3 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 36
4th quarter58 plays
Seahawks31Falcons12
Field goal9 plays, from the Falcons 44 to the Falcons 23
Seahawks31Falcons18
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Seahawks 18
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 29 to the Seahawks 30
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Seahawks 35
Seahawks37Falcons18
Seahawks38Falcons18
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Falcons 1
Drive ended8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Seahawks 21
The period ended1 play
Seahawks38Falcons24
Seahawks38Falcons25
Touchdown7 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 6
Intercepted3 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
