2020 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Seattle SeahawksWinner

Atlanta Falcons

ATL -1 upsetO 49.5 ✓DomeFalcons closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Seattle Seahawks 38–25. Biggest swing: Q3 9:49, ATL +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 9:49SEA — ATL SEA ball · 4th & 5SEA 63%

(9:49) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 9:49ATL +15% win prob(9:49) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 5:04ATL +15% win prob(5:04) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 16-T.Lockett. PENALTY on ATL-37-R.Allen, Defensive Pass Interference, 41 yards, enforced at SEA 49 - No Play.
Q1 · 2:14SEA +13% win prob(2:14) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 21-T.Gurley (95-B.Mayowa).
Q1 · 13:05ATL +9% win prob(13:05) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 18-C.Ridley ran ob at SEA 37 for 19 yards.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Falcons
Offensive plays	57	78
Total yards	384	506 (edge)
Yards per play	6.7 (edge)	6.5
Expected points added / play	0.32 (edge)	-0.01
Success rate	47% (edge)	46%
Dropback rate	68%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.49 (edge)	0.11
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.33
Third downs	3/9	7/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21	29 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Falcons outgained Seahawks 506–384 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

37/54, 450 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

6.1 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

31/35, 322 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

19.6 expected points added · +19.8% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Todd GurleyRB

14 att, 56 yds, 1 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Carlos HydeRB

7 att, 23 yds, 1 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Julio JonesWR

9/12 for 157 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Calvin RidleyWR

9/12 for 130 yds, 2 TD

23% of team targets · 9.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	10	55	3:54	Turnover on downs
2	SEA	SEA 23	13	46	6:23	Touchdown
3	ATL	ATL 25	6	35	2:33	Turnover on downs
4	SEA	SEA 40	4	60	1:17	Touchdown
5	ATL	ATL 25	11	75	4:28	Touchdown
6	SEA	SEA 25	5	-3	1:44	Punt
7	ATL	ATL 25	7	12	2:50	Punt
8	SEA	SEA 23	6	22	2:51	Punt
9	ATL	ATL 11	4	9	1:34	Punt
10	SEA	SEA 40	4	10	0:49	Punt
11	ATL	ATL 9	11	54	1:37	Turnover on downs
12	SEA	SEA 25	12	70	5:19	Touchdown
13	ATL	ATL 25	5	10	1:48	Fumble
14	SEA	ATL 36	6	36	2:48	Touchdown
15	ATL	ATL 25	8	55	3:56	Turnover on downs
16	SEA	SEA 20	8	77	4:50	Turnover on downs
17	ATL	ATL 25	7	75	1:44	Touchdown
18	SEA	SEA 29	5	1	1:46	Punt
19	ATL	ATL 30	6	35	1:34	Turnover on downs
20	SEA	SEA 35	8	65	2:30	Touchdown
21	ATL	ATL 25	14	75	3:12	Touchdown
22	SEA	ATL 46	3	16	0:14	Interception
23	SEA	SEA 20	1	0	0:19	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 77 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	31/35	322	4	0	3	19.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Russell Wilson	3	29	9.7	0	1.3
Carlos Hyde	7	23	3.3	1	0.5
Chris Carson	6	21	3.5	0	-1.2
David Moore	1	12	12.0	0	1.3
Travis Homer	3	-1	-0.3	0	-3.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DK Metcalf	4	8	95	1	23%	8.4
Tyler Lockett	8	8	92	0	23%	5.8
Chris Carson	6	6	45	2	17%	4.5
David Moore	3	3	28	0	9%	3.1
Greg Olsen	4	4	24	1	11%	2.8
Freddie Swain	1	1	17	0	3%	1.2
Jacob Hollister	1	1	9	0	3%	1.0
Will Dissly	2	2	8	0	6%	-0.7
Travis Homer	2	2	4	0	6%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jamal Adams	8	4	1.0	0	0
Shaquill Griffin	4	3	0.0	0	1
Marquise Blair	4	3	0.0	0	0
Bobby Wagner	1	5	0.0	0	2
Quinton Dunbar	4	1	0.0	0	1
Delano Hill	5	0	0.0	0	0
Quandre Diggs	3	1	0.0	1	2
Bruce Irvin	2	1	0.0	0	0
K.J. Wright	1	2	0.0	0	0
Poona Ford	2	1	0.0	0	0

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	37/54	450	2	1	2	6.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Todd Gurley	14	56	4.0	1	-0.7
Brian Hill	3	12	4.0	0	-2.2
Ito Smith	1	4	4.0	0	0.0
Sharrod Neasman	1	2	2.0	0	-3.1
Matt Ryan	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.1
Calvin Ridley	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Julio Jones	9	12	157	0	23%	6.9
Calvin Ridley	9	12	130	2	23%	9.6
Russell Gage	9	12	114	0	23%	8.1
Hayden Hurst	3	5	38	0	10%	-1.2
Brian Hill	2	2	8	0	4%	-0.4
Ito Smith	3	3	2	0	6%	-1.7
Todd Gurley	2	5	1	0	10%	-4.3
Luke Stocker	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Deion Jones	5	3	0.0	0
Isaiah Oliver	2	5	0.0	0
Keanu Neal	2	4	0.0	0
Foyesade Oluokun	4	2	0.0	0
A.J. Terrell	5	1	0.0	0
Grady Jarrett	2	3	1.5	0
Damontae Kazee	4	0	0.0	0
Takk McKinley	2	2	1.0	1
Dante Fowler	1	3	0.5	0
Mykal Walker	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -1
Closing total: 49.5
SEA moneyline: +102
ATL moneyline: -112

Falcons closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 63 — over by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: SEA 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Dan Quinn