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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 at New Orleans Saints 34. Final.
Saints -4 ✓O 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 1
New Orleans Saints 34, Buccaneers 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 11:47, 3rd and 10, on Alvin Kamara — 14.0 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:47 · 3rd and 10
Alvin Kamara
Saints
(11:47) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 41-A.Kamara for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -4, YAC 16
Dome
Saints closed -4 and covered, winning by 11.
New Orleans Saints 34–23. Biggest swing: Q2 11:47, Saints +14.0% win probability on one snap.
14.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Drew BreesSaintsQ2 10:18(10:18) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete deep middle to 17-E.Sanders (23-S.Murphy-Bunting). PENALTY on TB-33-J.Whitehead, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at TB 39 - No Play.
10.7pts
Ryan SuccopSaintsQ2 3:36(3:36) 3-R.Succop 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-M.Hunt), Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by NO-21-P.Robinson at NO 45.
8.9pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — +0.01 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.46 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Saints won this one — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 2 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Saints at 3 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Buccaneers177 of 189 plays carry both curves
(11:47) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 41-A.Kamara for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -4, YAC 16
Swing +14.0 for SaintsExpected points +3.04 for SaintsThe model had Buccaneers 6 points higher than the market did.play 42
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 11:47NO +14% win prob(11:47) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 41-A.Kamara for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -4, YAC 16
2nd · 10:18NO +11% win prob(10:18) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete deep middle to 17-E.Sanders (23-S.Murphy-Bunting). PENALTY on TB-33-J.Whitehead, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at TB 39 - No Play.
2nd · 3:36TB +9% win prob(3:36) 3-R.Succop 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-M.Hunt), Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by NO-21-P.Robinson at NO 45.
2nd · 11:06TB +7% win prob(11:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Williams at NO 48. 43-M.Williams to TB 35 for 17 yards (14-C.Godwin).
2nd · 12:26TB +7% win prob(12:26) (Shotgun) 88-T.Montgomery right guard to TB 12 for -4 yards (92-W.Gholston).
3rd · 13:22TB +7% win prob(13:22) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right intended for 17-J.Watson INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Jenkins at TB 36. 20-J.Jenkins for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Alvin Kamara's 6-yard rushing touchdown with 10:12 left in the 2nd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
4th8:05Wil Lutz·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+317–34
4th2:46Mike Evans·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady · two-point no good+623–34
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categorySaints
Buccaneers6–2Saints
310Total yards272
4.7Yards per play4.2
42%Success rate31%
38%Third-down rate33%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays3
18First downs15
3Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
Buccaneers ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Saints, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.16Buccaneers: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.22Saints: −0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.26Buccaneers: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.00Saints: −0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Buccaneers: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.46Saints: −0.46 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 66 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Saints’s 65 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 4, Saints 7.
NoteBuccaneers outgained Saints 310-272 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 29 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.2 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−1.05× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Saints17.1%
right on their number · +0.0 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -4.9 pts, 11.0 points below their season mean of 6.1 pts and 1.2 times their own 8.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Brees pass+13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(10:18) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete deep middle to 17-E.Sanders (23-S.Murphy-Bunting). PENALTY on TB-33-J.Whitehead, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at TB 39 - No Play.
Q2 10:18 · Saints · 3rd & 14 at TB 39 · gained nothing · +4.20 EP · +13.3% win probability
175 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 90 yards from the TB 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
36%
Yards
581
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.3172%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.2375%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.2431%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11-0.4327%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.1229%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Saints3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 46
Buccaneers6Saints0
Buccaneers7Saints0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Saints 2
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 43
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 12 to the Buccaneers 21
The period ended5 plays, from the Saints 36 to the Buccaneers 44
2nd quarter53 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Buccaneers7Saints6
Buccaneers7Saints7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 42 to the Buccaneers 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 26
Buccaneers7Saints13
Buccaneers7Saints14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Buccaneers 6
No good13 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Saints 27
Buccaneers7Saints17
Field goal14 plays, from the Saints 45 to the Buccaneers 11
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 35
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter49 plays
Buccaneers7Saints23
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 37
Buccaneers7Saints24
Buccaneers13Saints24
Buccaneers14Saints24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Saints 9
Punt10 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Buccaneers 45
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 14 to the Buccaneers 28
Punt4 plays
Buccaneers17Saints24
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 11 to the Saints 20
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 33
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter52 plays
Punt3 plays
Buccaneers17Saints30
Buccaneers17Saints31
Touchdown7 plays, from the Saints 39 to the Buccaneers 5
Buccaneers17Saints34
Field goal6 plays, from the Buccaneers 14 to the Buccaneers 3
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 36 to the Saints 39
Buccaneers23Saints34
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Saints 2
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Saints 49 to the Buccaneers 2
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
