2020 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New Orleans SaintsWinner

NO -4 ✓O 48.5 ✓DomeSaints closed -4 and covered, winning by 11.

New Orleans Saints 34–23. Biggest swing: Q2 11:47, NO +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 11:47TB — NO NO ball · 3rd & 10TB 56%

(11:47) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 41-A.Kamara for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -4, YAC 16

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 11:47NO +14% win prob(11:47) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 41-A.Kamara for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -4, YAC 16
Q2 · 10:18NO +11% win prob(10:18) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete deep middle to 17-E.Sanders (23-S.Murphy-Bunting). PENALTY on TB-33-J.Whitehead, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at TB 39 - No Play.
Q2 · 3:36TB +9% win prob(3:36) 3-R.Succop 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-M.Hunt), Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion, RECOVERED by NO-21-P.Robinson at NO 45.
Q2 · 11:06TB +7% win prob(11:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Williams at NO 48. 43-M.Williams to TB 35 for 17 yards (14-C.Godwin).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Saints
Offensive plays	66	65
Total yards	310 (edge)	272
Yards per play	4.7 (edge)	4.2
Expected points added / play	-0.16 (edge)	-0.22
Success rate	42% (edge)	31%
Dropback rate	62%	52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	-0.00 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01 (edge)	-0.46
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	5/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Buccaneers outgained Saints 310–272 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

23/36, 239 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-10.4 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

18/30, 160 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-2.9 expected points added · -9.1% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Ronald JonesRB

17 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Latavius MurrayRB

15 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Jared CookTE

5/7 for 80 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

6/7 for 79 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 7.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	6	21	2:40	Punt
2	TB	TB 15	10	57	4:53	Touchdown
3	NO	NO 25	7	18	2:55	Punt
4	TB	TB 12	4	9	2:15	Punt
5	NO	NO 36	12	64	5:38	Touchdown
6	TB	TB 25	3	1	0:43	Interception
7	NO	TB 35	4	2	0:47	Touchdown
8	TB	TB 25	13	24	6:42	Turnover on downs
9	NO	NO 45	10	34	2:43	Turnover on downs
10	TB	TB 25	6	16	0:35	Punt
11	NO	NO 37	1	0	0:09	End of half
12	TB	TB 25	6	22	1:47	Defensive touchdown
13	TB	TB 25	4	30	0:53	Touchdown
14	NO	NO 25	8	6	2:41	Punt
15	TB	TB 14	5	14	1:48	Punt
16	NO	TB 45	4	-5	1:35	Punt
17	TB	TB 11	8	41	3:54	Turnover on downs
18	NO	NO 25	5	3	2:15	Punt
19	TB	TB 22	4	-2	1:04	Punt
20	NO	NO 39	7	61	2:25	Touchdown
21	TB	TB 18	7	11	3:37	Turnover on downs
22	TB	TB 25	6	4	0:22	Punt
23	NO	NO 36	4	3	1:40	Punt
24	TB	TB 10	12	87	3:18	Touchdown
25	NO	NO 49	7	50	2:18	Turnover on downs
26	TB	TB 1	1	11	0:23	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 87 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	23/36	239	2	2	3	-10.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ronald Jones	17	66	3.9	0	-1.0
Tom Brady	3	9	3.0	1	1.5
Scott Miller	1	6	6.0	0	0.4
Leonard Fournette	5	5	1.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Godwin	6	7	79	0	21%	7.7
Scott Miller	5	6	73	0	18%	2.6
O.J. Howard	4	6	36	1	18%	0.2
Ronald Jones	2	3	16	0	9%	-1.0
Leonard Fournette	1	1	14	0	3%	2.0
Rob Gronkowski	2	3	11	0	9%	-0.6
Justin Watson	1	2	6	0	6%	-7.6
LeSean McCoy	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.5
Mike Evans	1	4	2	1	12%	-6.5
Cameron Brate	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Devin White	6	5	0.0	1
Lavonte David	6	4	0.0	0
Jamel Dean	7	0	0.0	0
William Gholston	3	4	0.0	0
Antoine Winfield	3	3	0.0	1
Jordan Whitehead	3	2	0.0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	4	1	0.0	0
Carlton Davis	4	0	0.0	0
Jason Pierre-Paul	2	1	1.0	0
Shaquil Barrett	3	0	0.0	1

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	18/30	160	2	0	1	-2.9
Taysom Hill	1/1	38	0	0	0	2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Latavius Murray	15	48	3.2	0	-1.9
Alvin Kamara	12	16	1.3	1	-8.7
Taysom Hill	3	13	4.3	0	-1.7
Deonte Harty	1	9	9.0	0	0.8
Drew Brees	2	0	0.0	0	-0.9
Ty Montgomery	1	-4	-4.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jared Cook	5	7	80	0	23%	2.7
Alvin Kamara	5	8	51	1	27%	1.1
Deonte Harty	1	1	17	0	3%	1.0
Michael Thomas	3	5	17	0	17%	-0.9
Emmanuel Sanders	3	5	15	1	17%	0.0
Taysom Hill	1	1	14	0	3%	0.8
Tre'Quan Smith	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.8
Latavius Murray	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8
Josh Hill	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	9	1	0.0	0	1
Janoris Jenkins	8	1	0.0	1	1
Demario Davis	5	1	1.0	0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	3	3	0.0	0	1
Alex Anzalone	1	3	0.0	0	0
Trey Hendrickson	4	0	1.0	0	0
D.J. Swearinger	3	1	0.0	0	0
Cameron Jordan	3	0	0.0	0	0
Marshon Lattimore	1	1	0.0	0	1
Carl Granderson	2	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -4
Closing total: 48.5
TB moneyline: +174
NO moneyline: -196

Saints closed -4 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 57 — over by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: TB 7 days · NO 7 days
Coaches: Bruce Arians vs Sean Payton

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.