2020 Week 1 · Mon, Sep 14, 2020 · Empower Field at Mile High

Tennessee TitansWinner

Denver Broncos

TEN -3 no coverU 41 ✓Titans closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Tennessee Titans 16–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:02, TEN +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:02TEN — DEN DEN ball · 1st & 10TEN 76%

(:02) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass incomplete short right.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:02TEN +24% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass incomplete short right.
Q4 · 9:12DEN +13% win prob(9:12) 25-M.Gordon left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 13:53DEN +12% win prob(13:53) 62-A.Brewer reported in as eligible. 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 81-J.Smith for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 7:23DEN +12% win prob(7:23) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right to 87-N.Fant to TEN 24 for 31 yards (31-K.Byard).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Broncos
Offensive plays	78	59
Total yards	377 (edge)	323
Yards per play	4.8	5.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.10 (edge)	-0.08
Success rate	53% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	58%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.24 (edge)	-0.18
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08	0.04 (edge)
Third downs	7/16 (edge)	3/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	1	0 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

29/43, 249 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.9 expected points added · +5.3% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Drew LockQB

22/33, 216 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-2.2 expected points added · +3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

31 att, 116 yds, 0 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Melvin GordonRB

15 att, 78 yds, 1 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

Corey DavisWR

7/8 for 101 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Noah FantTE

5/6 for 81 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 8.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 20	8	38	3:12	Punt
2	DEN	DEN 11	6	27	2:56	Punt
3	TEN	TEN 13	9	58	3:29	Turnover on downs
4	DEN	DEN 37	11	50	4:57	Touchdown
5	TEN	TEN 25	5	6	1:31	Punt
6	DEN	DEN 6	4	17	2:11	Fumble
7	TEN	DEN 23	6	19	2:23	Touchdown
8	DEN	DEN 25	13	74	6:04	Turnover on downs
9	TEN	TEN 1	12	73	3:09	Turnover on downs
10	DEN	DEN 34	2	33	0:08	End of half
11	DEN	DEN 25	5	7	1:01	Punt
12	TEN	TEN 21	14	40	6:31	Turnover on downs
13	DEN	DEN 32	4	-4	1:37	Punt
14	TEN	TEN 18	16	67	7:02	Touchdown
15	DEN	DEN 25	11	75	4:41	Touchdown
16	TEN	TEN 25	5	9	1:44	Punt
17	DEN	DEN 20	6	24	2:27	Punt
18	TEN	TEN 4	4	0	0:51	Punt
19	DEN	TEN 44	4	2	1:01	Punt
20	TEN	TEN 10	12	67	2:48	Turnover on downs
21	DEN	DEN 25	4	18	0:17	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	29/43	249	2	0	1	9.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	31	116	3.7	0	-1.5
Ryan Tannehill	3	14	4.7	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Corey Davis	7	8	101	0	20%	7.2
Adam Humphries	6	7	47	0	18%	2.3
A.J. Brown	5	8	39	0	20%	-0.9
Jonnu Smith	4	7	36	1	18%	3.3
Derrick Henry	3	3	15	0	8%	1.0
Anthony Firkser	2	2	5	0	5%	0.2
Khari Blasingame	1	1	5	0	3%	0.4
MyCole Pruitt	1	1	1	1	3%	0.9
Kalif Raymond	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.6
Jeremy McNichols	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Kevin Byard	8	1	1
Kenny Vaccaro	4	2	1
Jayon Brown	2	3	0
Harold Landry	4	0	0
Jeffery Simmons	3	1	0
Kristian Fulton	3	1	0
David Long Jr.	2	1	0
Will Compton	1	2	0
Malcolm Butler	3	0	0
Jadeveon Clowney	2	1	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Lock	22/33	216	1	0	0	-2.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Melvin Gordon	15	78	5.2	1	1.3
Phillip Lindsay	7	24	3.4	0	0.9
Drew Lock	3	5	1.7	0	-0.1
Royce Freeman	1	0	0.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Noah Fant	5	6	81	1	19%	8.4
Jerry Jeudy	4	8	56	0	25%	-3.8
Tim Patrick	4	5	29	0	16%	1.2
DaeSean Hamilton	1	3	18	0	9%	-3.1
Royce Freeman	1	1	12	0	3%	1.8
Phillip Lindsay	1	1	11	0	3%	1.3
Melvin Gordon	3	3	8	0	9%	-6.2
Tyrie Cleveland	1	1	7	0	3%	0.3
Jake Butt	1	2	0	0	6%	-4.8
Nick Vannett	1	2	-6	0	6%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Alexander Johnson	8	4	0.0	0
Bryce Callahan	6	2	0.0	0
Josey Jewell	5	3	0.0	0
Justin Simmons	4	2	0.0	0
Jurrell Casey	3	3	0.0	2
Kareem Jackson	5	1	0.0	1
Essang Bassey	5	0	0.0	0
Mike Purcell	4	1	0.0	0
Jeremiah Attaochu	3	1	1.0	0
Shelby Harris	3	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -3
Closing total: 41
TEN moneyline: -175
DEN moneyline: +157

Titans closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41; the game landed 30 — under by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 79°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: TEN 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Vic Fangio