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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Titans170 of 180 plays carry both curves
(:02) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass incomplete short right.
Swing −24.1 for BroncosExpected points −0.17 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 9 points higher than the market did.play 178
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
4th0:20Stephen Gostkowski·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.BrinkleyLead never changed again+316–14
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryBroncos
Titans6–2Broncos
377Total yards323
4.8Yards per play5.5
53%Success rate41%
44%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays6
23First downs18
1Sacks taken0
0Turnovers1
The read
Titans ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Titans: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.08Broncos: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.24Titans: +0.24 expected points added per play
−0.18Broncos: −0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Titans: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.04Broncos: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 78 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Broncos’s 59 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Titans 3, Broncos 3.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Broncos15.6%
right on their number · +0.6 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -2.7 pts, 7.0 points above their season mean of -9.7 pts and 1.3 times their own 5.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Lock pass−33% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:02) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass incomplete short right.
Q4 0:02 · Broncos · 1st & 10 at DEN 43 · gained nothing · -0.17 EP · −33.3% win probability
168 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 83 yards from the TEN 10 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
45%
Yards
700
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.2360%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.0074%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.3224%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.3143%
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR6-0.12100%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.5050%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.4667%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.0440%
Broncos2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 48
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 11 to the Broncos 37
No good9 plays, from the Titans 13 to the Broncos 29
Titans0Broncos6
Titans0Broncos7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Broncos 37 to the Titans 9
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Titans 31
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Broncos 6 to the Broncos 21
Titans6Broncos7
Titans7Broncos7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Broncos 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Titans 1
No good15 plays, from the Titans 1 to the Broncos 24
The period ended4 plays, from the Broncos 34 to the Broncos 42
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 32
No good15 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Broncos 24
Punt4 plays
The period ended14 plays, from the Titans 18 to the Broncos 8
4th quarter56 plays
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs and two tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Titans13Broncos7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Broncos 6 to the Broncos 1
Titans13Broncos13
Titans13Broncos14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Titans 1
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 34
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 44
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 44 to the Titans 42
Titans16Broncos14
Field goal14 plays, from the Titans 10 to the Broncos 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linebackers and eight backsCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
The period ended7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
