For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Falcons199 of 209 plays carry both curves
(:04) 2-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
Swing +49.3 for CowboysExpected points +0.64 for CowboysThe model had Cowboys 2 points higher than the market did.play 208
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:04DAL +49% win prob(:04) 2-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
4th · 1:49ATL +28% win prob(Onside Kick formation) 2-G.Zuerlein kicks onside 11 yards from DAL 35 to DAL 46. RECOVERED by DAL-29-C.Goodwin.
4th · 1:43DAL +21% win prob(1:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to ATL 30 for 24 yards (27-D.Kazee).
1st · 11:13ATL +11% win prob(11:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 21 for -6 yards (sack split by 56-D.Fowler and 45-D.Jones). FUMBLES (56-D.Fowler), RECOVERED by ATL-50-J.Cominsky at DAL 22.
1st · 9:34ATL +10% win prob(9:34) 21-E.Elliott left tackle to ATL 42 for 4 yards (54-F.Oluokun). FUMBLES (54-F.Oluokun), touched at ATL 42, RECOVERED by ATL-97-G.Jarrett at ATL 45. 97-G.Jarrett to ATL 48 for 3 yards (78-T.Steele).
3rd · 6:30DAL +9% win prob(6:30) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 19-A.Cooper to ATL 17 for 58 yards (22-K.Neal) [55-S.Means].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Greg Zuerlein's 46-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:06Calvin Ridley·22-yd TD catch22-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+77–0
1st7:45Hayden Hurst·42-yd TD catch42-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+714–0
1st4:32Younghoe Koo·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+317–0
1st1:10Younghoe Koo·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+320–0
4th0:04Greg Zuerlein·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.LadouceurLead never changed again+339–40
15 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryCowboys
Falcons1–7Cowboys
380Total yards570
5.2Yards per play7.0
42%Success rate53%
47%Third-down rate62%
2Red-zone touchdowns5
6Explosive plays11
21First downs31
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers4
The read
Cowboys ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Falcons, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Falcons: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.07Cowboys: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.29Falcons: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.17Cowboys: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Falcons: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.10Cowboys: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 73 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 81 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 6, Cowboys 6.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's early-down pass rate turned over: 71.2% in week 1 against 47.2% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
ATL's sack or hit rate turned over: 23.1% in week 1 against 10.0% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.3 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Cowboys9.3%
right on their number · −3.6 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 47.2%, 11.7 points below their season mean of 58.8% and 1.5 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Greg Zuerlein+47% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) 2-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
Q4 0:04 · Cowboys · 4th & 8 at ATL 28 · gained nothing · +0.64 EP · +46.8% win probability
197 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 209 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 209 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
15 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 83 yards from the DAL 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
209 of 209 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
209
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
46%
Yards
950
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR68+0.0865%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.1756%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.0725%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.9750%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.2960%
Falcons2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
209 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
209 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter55 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 33
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Cowboys 29
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 28 to the Falcons 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Cowboys 27
Falcons6Cowboys0
Falcons7Cowboys0
Touchdown2 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Cowboys 13 to the Falcons 46
Falcons13Cowboys0
Falcons14Cowboys0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Falcons 48 to the Cowboys 42
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 13 to the Cowboys 29
Falcons17Cowboys0
Field goal4 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Cowboys 24
Fumble lost2 plays
Falcons20Cowboys0
Field goal8 plays, from the Cowboys 40 to the Cowboys 9
The period ended6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Falcons 44
2nd quarter51 plays
Falcons20Cowboys6
Falcons20Cowboys7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Falcons 1
Falcons26Cowboys7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Cowboys 1
Falcons26Cowboys10
Field goal16 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Falcons 15
Falcons29Cowboys10
Field goal10 plays, from the Falcons 21 to the Cowboys 23
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Falcons29Cowboys16
Falcons29Cowboys17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 26 to the Falcons 2
Punt12 plays, from the Falcons 26 to the Cowboys 41
Falcons29Cowboys23
Falcons29Cowboys24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 17 to the Falcons 1
The period ended11 plays, from the Falcons 26 to the Cowboys 21
4th quarter62 plays
Falcons35Cowboys24
Falcons36Cowboys24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cowboys 12 to the Cowboys 8
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Cowboys 40
Falcons39Cowboys24
Field goal11 plays, from the Cowboys 43 to the Cowboys 8
Falcons39Cowboys30
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Falcons 10
Punt9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 37
Falcons39Cowboys36
Falcons39Cowboys37
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Falcons 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Falcons39Cowboys40
Field goal7 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
