2020 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 2020 · NRG Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

Houston Texans

BAL -7.5 ✓U 49.5 ✓DomeRavens closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Baltimore Ravens 33–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 5:26, BAL +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 5:26BAL — HOU HOU ball · 1st & 10BAL 87%

(5:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 16-K.Coutee to HOU 23 for 6 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), RECOVERED by BAL-58-L.Fort at HOU 22. 58-L.Fort pushed ob at HOU 1 for 21 yards (78-L.Tunsil). T

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 5:26BAL +9% win prob(5:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 16-K.Coutee to HOU 23 for 6 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), RECOVERED by BAL-58-L.Fort at HOU 22. 58-L.Fort pushed ob at HOU 1 for 21 yards (78-L.Tunsil). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 16-K.Coutee to HOU 23 for 6 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), RECOVERED by BAL-58-L.Fort at HOU 22. 58-L.Fort for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 6:57HOU +5% win prob(6:57) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 42 for 29 yards (32-L.Johnson).
Q2 · 7:11HOU +5% win prob(7:11) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 15-M.Brown to HOU 24 for 25 yards (23-E.Murray).
Q2 · 9:50HOU +4% win prob(9:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 87-D.Fells for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Texans
Offensive plays	62	56
Total yards	410 (edge)	304
Yards per play	6.6 (edge)	5.4
Expected points added / play	0.21 (edge)	-0.20
Success rate	45% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	50%	79%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.16 (edge)	-0.19
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.26 (edge)	-0.26
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	3/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	4	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

25/36, 275 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

0.7 expected points added · +6.5% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

18/24, 204 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.6 expected points added · +11.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Gus EdwardsRB

10 att, 73 yds, 0 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Mark IngramRB

9 att, 55 yds, 1 TD

4.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Brandin CooksWR

5/8 for 95 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Randall CobbWR

5/6 for 59 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 25	5	9	2:04	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 14	4	8	2:03	Punt
3	HOU	HOU 35	6	21	2:42	Punt
4	BAL	BAL 13	12	73	6:57	Turnover on downs
5	HOU	HOU 25	5	9	1:14	Turnover on downs
6	BAL	HOU 34	5	34	2:05	Touchdown
7	HOU	HOU 25	9	75	3:10	Touchdown
8	BAL	BAL 21	10	53	4:14	Turnover on downs
9	HOU	HOU 17	2	5	0:15	Defensive touchdown
10	HOU	HOU 25	7	23	2:55	Interception
11	BAL	BAL 44	5	4	1:15	Punt
12	HOU	HOU 11	7	58	1:06	Turnover on downs
13	BAL	BAL 11	15	55	8:36	Turnover on downs
14	HOU	HOU 25	15	58	6:37	Turnover on downs
15	BAL	BAL 25	8	75	2:49	Touchdown
16	HOU	HOU 25	11	49	3:45	Turnover on downs
17	BAL	BAL 27	14	64	4:29	Turnover on downs
18	HOU	HOU 25	5	-3	1:21	Punt
19	BAL	BAL 29	4	44	2:23	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 75 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	18/24	204	1	0	4	5.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Gus Edwards	10	73	7.3	0	2.2
Mark Ingram	9	55	6.1	1	4.2
Lamar Jackson	16	54	3.4	0	-3.0
J.K. Dobbins	2	48	24.0	0	1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquise Brown	5	6	42	0	26%	0.9
Miles Boykin	4	5	38	0	22%	2.6
Willie Snead	2	2	29	0	9%	1.7
Mark Andrews	1	3	29	0	13%	1.9
Mark Ingram	2	3	22	0	13%	-0.2
Devin Duvernay	1	1	19	0	4%	1.1
J.K. Dobbins	1	1	13	0	4%	2.3
Nick Boyle	1	1	11	0	4%	1.7
Patrick Ricard	1	1	1	1	4%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Patrick Queen	7	2	0.0	0	0
Marlon Humphrey	5	1	0.5	0	0
Chuck Clark	3	2	0.5	0	0
Anthony Averett	4	0	0.0	0	0
DeShon Elliott	4	0	1.0	0	0
Calais Campbell	1	3	1.0	0	0
Tyus Bowser	3	0	1.0	0	0
Jimmy Smith	3	0	0.0	0	0
Derek Wolfe	1	2	0.0	0	0
Marcus Peters	2	1	0.0	1	2

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	25/36	275	1	1	4	0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Johnson	11	34	3.1	-2.3
Deshaun Watson	5	17	3.4	-1.4
Will Fuller	1	0	0.0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandin Cooks	5	8	95	0	24%	1.5
Randall Cobb	5	6	59	0	18%	4.9
Jordan Akins	7	7	55	0	21%	1.4
Darren Fells	2	4	23	1	12%	-0.4
David Johnson	2	4	16	0	12%	-0.8
Kenny Stills	2	3	16	0	9%	-0.4
Keke Coutee	2	2	11	0	6%	-7.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Zach Cunningham	10	4	1.0	0
Justin Reid	8	2	0.0	0
Benardrick McKinney	3	7	0.0	1
Eric Murray	3	4	0.0	0
Brandon Dunn	2	2	0.0	0
P.J. Hall	1	2	0.0	0
Lonnie Johnson	3	0	0.0	0
Vernon Hargreaves	1	1	0.0	1
Jake Martin	2	0	0.0	0
A.J. Moore	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -7.5
Closing total: 49.5
BAL moneyline: -344
HOU moneyline: +292

Ravens closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 49 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: BAL 7 days · HOU 10 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Bill O'Brien