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Baltimore Ravens 33, Texans 16 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 5:26, 1st and 10, on Keke Coutee — 9.0 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 5:26 · 1st and 10
Keke Coutee
Ravens
(5:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 16-K.Coutee to HOU 23 for 6 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), RECOVERED by BAL-58-L.Fort at HOU 22. 58-L.Fort pushed ob at HOU 1 for 21 yards (78-L.Tunsil). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 16-K.Coutee to HOU 23 for 6 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), RECOVERED by BAL-58-L.Fort at HOU 22. 58-L.Fort for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Ravens closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Baltimore Ravens 33–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 5:26, Ravens +9.0% win probability on one snap.
9.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mark AndrewsRavensQ1 6:57(6:57) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 42 for 29 yards (32-L.Johnson).
5.5pts
Marquise BrownRavensQ2 7:11(7:11) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 15-M.Brown to HOU 24 for 25 yards (23-E.Murray).
5.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Texans at 3 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.26 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.26 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.20 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — no giveaways, against Texans at 2 giveaways.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Ravens157 of 169 plays carry both curves
(5:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 16-K.Coutee to HOU 23 for 6 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), RECOVERED by BAL-58-L.Fort at HOU 22. 58-L.Fort pushed ob at HOU 1 for 21 yards (78-L.Tunsil). T
Swing −9.0 for TexansExpected points −7.44 for TexansThe model had Texans 18 points higher than the market did.play 63
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 5:26BAL +9% win prob(5:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 16-K.Coutee to HOU 23 for 6 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), RECOVERED by BAL-58-L.Fort at HOU 22. 58-L.Fort pushed ob at HOU 1 for 21 yards (78-L.Tunsil). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 16-K.Coutee to HOU 23 for 6 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), RECOVERED by BAL-58-L.Fort at HOU 22. 58-L.Fort for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:57HOU +5% win prob(6:57) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 42 for 29 yards (32-L.Johnson).
2nd · 7:11HOU +5% win prob(7:11) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 15-M.Brown to HOU 24 for 25 yards (23-E.Murray).
2nd · 9:50HOU +4% win prob(9:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 87-D.Fells for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 12:04HOU +4% win prob(12:04) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 21-M.Ingram. 21-M.Ingram left end for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:02BAL +3% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Tucker's 32-yard field goal with 1:18 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:18Justin Tucker·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.CoxLead never changed again+33–0
4th8:17Ka'imi Fairbairn·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.Weeks+330–16
4th3:47Justin Tucker·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+333–16
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryTexans
Ravens7–0Texans
410Total yards304
6.6Yards per play5.4
45%Success rate41%
38%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
11Explosive plays3
22First downs17
4Sacks taken4
0Turnovers2
The read
Ravens ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.21Ravens: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.20Texans: −0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.16Ravens: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.19Texans: −0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.26Ravens: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.26Texans: −0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 62 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Texans’s 56 at 79%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 5, Texans 2.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · +7.4 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Texans16.1%
right on their number · +2.2 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 73.9%, 7.6 points above their season mean of 66.3% and 1.3 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Watson pass−17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(5:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 16-K.Coutee to HOU 23 for 6 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), RECOVERED by BAL-58-L.Fort at HOU 22. 58-L.Fort pushed ob at HOU 1 for 21 yards (78-L.Tunsil). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 16-K.Coutee to HOU 23 for 6 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), RECOVERED by BAL-58-L.Fort at HOU 22. 58-L.Fort for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 5:26 · Texans · 1st & 10 at HOU 17 · gained 5 · -7.44 EP · −16.9% win probability
155 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 75 yards from the HOU 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
41%
Yards
711
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.3276%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.2354%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1450%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14-0.2950%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR12+0.1417%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.1643%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 34
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 14 to the Ravens 22
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Ravens 44
Ravens3Texans0
Field goal12 plays, from the Ravens 13 to the Texans 14
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 34
2nd quarter53 plays
Ravens9Texans0
Ravens10Texans0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Texans 34 to the Texans 1
Ravens10Texans6
Ravens10Texans7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Ravens 10
Ravens13Texans7
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 21 to the Texans 21
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
Ravens19Texans7
Touchdown2 plays
Ravens20Texans7
Intercepted7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 48
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 44 to the Texans 44
Ravens20Texans10
Field goal9 plays, from the Texans 11 to the Ravens 26
3rd quarter31 plays
Ravens23Texans10
Field goal16 plays, from the Ravens 11 to the Texans 20
The period ended15 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Ravens 21
4th quarter50 plays
Ravens23Texans13
Field goal3 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Ravens 17
Ravens29Texans13
Ravens30Texans13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Texans 30
Ravens30Texans16
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Ravens 21
Ravens33Texans16
Field goal18 plays, from the Ravens 27 to the Texans 2
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 30
The period ended5 plays, from the Ravens 29 to the Texans 27
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -7.5
Closing total
49.5
Ravens moneyline
-344
Texans moneyline
+292
Ravens closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 49 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
Ravens 7 days · Texans 10 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Bill O'Brien
(:02) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 87-D.Fells [32-D.Elliott].
2nd · 2:32BAL +3% win prob(2:32) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left intended for 13-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 24-M.Peters at BAL 35. 24-M.Peters to BAL 44 for 9 yards (18-R.Cobb; 31-Da.Johnson).
3rd · 6:28HOU +3% win prob(6:28) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
