2020 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 2020 · Hard Rock Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

Miami Dolphins

BUF -5.5 no coverO 42.5 ✓90°FBills closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Buffalo Bills 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 8:13, MIA +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 8:13BUF — MIA BUF ball · 2nd & 24MIA 54%

(8:13) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 11-C.Beasley to MIA 18 for 24 yards (55-J.Baker; 25-X.Howard).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 8:13MIA +17% win prob(8:13) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 11-C.Beasley to MIA 18 for 24 yards (55-J.Baker; 25-X.Howard).
Q4 · 10:15MIA +14% win prob(10:15) 68-R.Hunt reported in as eligible. 34-J.Howard right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 6:03MIA +13% win prob(6:03) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 13-G.Davis for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 3:17MIA +13% win prob(3:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 15-J.Brown for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Dolphins
Offensive plays	57	72
Total yards	524 (edge)	412
Yards per play	9.2 (edge)	5.7
Expected points added / play	0.39 (edge)	0.16
Success rate	49%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.62 (edge)	0.15
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02	0.18 (edge)
Third downs	5/10 (edge)	5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	14 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	23	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs 0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

24/35, 415 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

28.7 expected points added · +6.3% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Ryan FitzpatrickQB

31/47, 328 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.4 expected points added · +0.6% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

10 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

-0.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Myles GaskinRB

7 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

8/13 for 153 yds, 1 TD

37% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Mike GesickiTE

8/11 for 130 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 9.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 25	6	22	1:57	Punt
2	MIA	MIA 14	6	20	2:49	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 3	12	97	5:19	Touchdown
4	MIA	MIA 25	12	75	4:17	Touchdown
5	BUF	BUF 25	2	36	0:15	Fumble
6	MIA	MIA 37	4	4	0:45	Punt
7	BUF	BUF 16	6	84	2:58	Touchdown
8	MIA	MIA 25	8	18	2:57	Punt
9	BUF	BUF 6	13	83	6:13	Turnover on downs
10	MIA	MIA 25	5	-1	0:45	Punt
11	BUF	BUF 19	5	18	1:12	Punt
12	MIA	MIA 25	5	41	0:31	Turnover on downs
13	BUF	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
14	MIA	MIA 25	9	58	3:42	Turnover on downs
15	BUF	BUF 25	7	20	2:59	Punt
16	MIA	MIA 14	12	70	6:17	Turnover on downs
17	BUF	BUF 1	4	8	1:38	Punt
18	MIA	BUF 44	11	44	5:13	Touchdown
19	BUF	BUF 25	9	85	4:16	Touchdown
20	MIA	MIA 25	5	1	1:29	Punt
21	BUF	BUF 29	6	71	1:17	Touchdown
22	MIA	MIA 25	11	82	2:20	Touchdown
23	BUF	50	3	0	0:49	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 97 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	24/35	415	4	0	1	28.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Devin Singletary	10	56	5.6	-0.0
Zack Moss	8	37	4.6	-0.9
Josh Allen	4	19	4.8	-0.8
Gabe Davis	1	0	0.0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	8	13	153	1	37%	6.0
John Brown	4	6	82	1	17%	8.3
Cole Beasley	5	6	70	0	17%	6.9
Isaiah McKenzie	2	2	47	0	6%	2.4
Dawson Knox	1	3	36	0	9%	-3.7
Devin Singletary	2	3	20	0	9%	0.8
Gabe Davis	1	1	6	1	3%	3.1
Reggie Gilliam	1	1	1	1	3%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Micah Hyde	6	3	0.0	1
Levi Wallace	6	3	0.0	1
Jordan Poyer	4	4	1.0	0
Tyrel Dodson	4	2	0.0	2
Taron Johnson	3	2	0.0	0
A.J. Klein	4	1	0.0	0
Vernon Butler	2	2	0.0	0
Tre'Davious White	3	0	0.0	2
Mario Addison	2	1	1.0	0
Ed Oliver	3	0	1.0	1

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Fitzpatrick	31/47	328	2	0	3	7.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Myles Gaskin	7	46	6.6	0	1.3
Matt Breida	7	37	5.3	0	1.3
Ryan Fitzpatrick	3	12	4.0	0	-0.0
Jordan Howard	5	4	0.8	1	1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Gesicki	8	11	130	1	24%	9.5
Isaiah Ford	7	9	76	0	20%	5.5
DeVante Parker	5	8	53	1	17%	2.8
Myles Gaskin	6	7	36	0	15%	0.2
Preston Williams	1	5	26	0	11%	-3.5
Adam Shaheen	1	2	4	0	4%	-0.5
Matt Breida	1	2	2	0	4%	-1.0
Jakeem Grant	1	1	2	0	2%	-0.5
Lynn Bowden	1	1	-1	0	2%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nik Needham	4	6	0.0	0
Jerome Baker	1	5	0.0	0
Davon Godchaux	2	3	0.0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	1	3	0.5	0
Noah Igbinoghene	4	0	0.0	0
Kyle Van Noy	3	0	0.0	1
Bobby McCain	2	1	0.0	0
Raekwon Davis	1	1	0.0	0
Eric Rowe	1	1	0.0	1
Kamu Grugier-Hill	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -5.5
Closing total: 42.5
BUF moneyline: -244
MIA moneyline: +214

Bills closed -5.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 59 — over by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 90°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: BUF 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Brian Flores

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.