2020 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium

Carolina Panthers

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

TB -7.5 ✓O 47 ✓17 mph windBuccaneers closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31–17. Biggest swing: Q1 10:07, CAR +13% win probability on one snap. Played in 17 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:07CAR — TB CAR ball · 1st & 10TB 60%

(10:07) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left intended for 22-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Whitehead at TB 22. 33-J.Whitehead to TB 22 for no gain (22-C.McCaffrey).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:07CAR +13% win prob(10:07) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left intended for 22-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Whitehead at TB 22. 33-J.Whitehead to TB 22 for no gain (22-C.McCaffrey).
Q1 · 7:40TB +11% win prob(7:40) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans to CAR 21 for 50 yards (33-T.Boston).
Q1 · 4:57CAR +10% win prob(4:57) 5-T.Bridgewater sacked at CAR 25 for -3 yards (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield) [31-A.Winfield], RECOVERED by TB-90-J.Pierre-Paul at CAR 29. 90-J.Pierre-Paul to CAR 23 for 6 yards (22-C.McCaffrey; 28-M.Davis).
Q4 · 13:30TB +7% win prob(13:30) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	71	57
Total yards	427 (edge)	339
Yards per play	6.0 (edge)	5.9
Expected points added / play	-0.14	-0.02 (edge)
Success rate	46% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	66%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18	0.01 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09	-0.07 (edge)
Third downs	6/11 (edge)	5/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	5	0 (edge)
Turnovers	4	2 (edge)

Panthers outgained Buccaneers 427–339 but lost the turnover battle 4–2. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Teddy BridgewaterQB

33/42, 367 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-4.2 expected points added · +13.3% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

23/35, 217 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

0.5 expected points added · -1.6% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Leonard FournetteRB

12 att, 103 yds, 2 TD

5.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Christian McCaffreyRB

18 att, 59 yds, 2 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

8/13 for 120 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Robbie ChosenWR

9/10 for 109 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 2.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	5	6	1:11	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 29	7	49	3:50	Interception
3	TB	TB 22	11	81	4:17	Touchdown
4	CAR	CAR 25	3	3	0:57	Fumble
5	TB	CAR 23	2	23	0:07	Touchdown
6	CAR	CAR 25	8	16	3:30	Punt
7	TB	TB 15	12	47	6:02	Fumble
8	CAR	CAR 41	7	24	4:03	Turnover on downs
9	TB	TB 35	8	65	3:02	Touchdown
10	CAR	CAR 25	6	23	1:16	Punt
11	TB	TB 20	5	8	1:05	Punt
12	CAR	CAR 24	2	-6	0:40	End of half
13	CAR	CAR 25	3	2	0:46	Fumble
14	TB	CAR 27	1	0	0:13	Interception
15	CAR	TB 47	9	45	5:25	Touchdown
16	TB	TB 25	9	11	3:52	Punt
17	CAR	CAR 7	14	88	6:19	Touchdown
18	TB	TB 25	6	7	1:33	Punt
19	CAR	CAR 12	3	32	1:42	Interception
20	TB	TB 40	8	45	3:57	Turnover on downs
21	CAR	CAR 25	11	80	4:16	Turnover on downs
22	TB	CAR 46	3	46	0:09	Touchdown
23	CAR	CAR 25	9	71	1:48	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 88 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	33/42	367	0	2	5	-4.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	18	59	3.3	2	0.9
Curtis Samuel	4	26	6.5	0	1.1
Mike Davis	1	1	1.0	0	-1.2
Jeremy Chinn	1	1	1.0	0	-2.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	8	13	120	33%	4.6
Robbie Chosen	9	10	109	25%	2.8
Mike Davis	8	8	74	20%	1.8
Christian McCaffrey	4	5	29	13%	-4.2
Alex Armah	1	1	14	3%	-2.7
Curtis Samuel	2	2	13	5%	1.6
Chris Manhertz	1	1	8	3%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Jeremy Chinn	1	6	0	0
Rasul Douglas	7	0	0	0
Tahir Whitehead	4	2	0	0
Tre Boston	3	2	0	0
Brian Burns	4	0	0	0
Corn Elder	1	2	0	1
Donte Jackson	1	2	1	1
Christian McCaffrey	1	1	0	0
Stephen Weatherly	2	0	0	0
Adarius Taylor	1	1	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	23/35	217	1	1	0	0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Leonard Fournette	12	103	8.6	2	5.7
Ronald Jones	7	23	3.3	1	-0.6
Scott Miller	1	1	1.0	0	-0.7
Tom Brady	1	0	0.0	0	-5.5
LeSean McCoy	1	-5	-5.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	7	10	104	1	29%	6.8
Justin Watson	2	3	48	0	9%	2.4
LeSean McCoy	5	7	26	0	20%	3.4
Leonard Fournette	4	5	13	0	14%	-1.4
Scott Miller	2	3	11	0	9%	-0.6
O.J. Howard	1	3	11	0	9%	-1.1
Ronald Jones	2	2	4	0	6%	-0.7
Cyril Grayson	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.0
Rob Gronkowski	0	1	0	0	3%	-7.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Devin White	8	4	0.0	0	1
Antoine Winfield	8	3	1.0	0	0
Lavonte David	7	2	0.0	0	0
Jamel Dean	5	1	0.0	0	1
Shaquil Barrett	3	2	0.0	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	4	1	0.0	1	1
Ndamukong Suh	4	1	2.0	0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	3	1	0.0	0	0
Carlton Davis	1	2	0.0	1	2
Jason Pierre-Paul	2	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -7.5
Closing total: 47
CAR moneyline: +290
TB moneyline: -342

Buccaneers closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 47; the game landed 48 — over by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 85°F, wind 17 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: CAR 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Matt Rhule vs Bruce Arians

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 17 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.