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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
2020 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
PanthersCarolina17
BY 14final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay31
Carolina Panthers 17 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31. Final.
Buccaneers -7.5 ✓O 47 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31, Panthers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 10:07, 1st and 10, on Jordan Whitehead — 13.1 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:07 · 1st and 10
Jordan Whitehead
Buccaneers
(10:07) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left intended for 22-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Whitehead at TB 22. 33-J.Whitehead to TB 22 for no gain (22-C.McCaffrey).
17.6 mph wind
Buccaneers closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31–17. Biggest swing: Q1 10:07, Buccaneers +13.1% win probability on one snap. Played in 17.6 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
13.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mike EvansBuccaneersQ1 7:40(7:40) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans to CAR 21 for 50 yards (33-T.Boston).
11.0pts
Teddy BridgewaterBuccaneersQ1 4:57(4:57) 5-T.Bridgewater sacked at CAR 25 for -3 yards (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield) [31-A.Winfield], RECOVERED by TB-90-J.Pierre-Paul at CAR 29. 90-J.Pierre-Paul to CAR 23 for 6 yards (22-C.McCaffrey; 28-M.Davis).
10.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — 2 giveaways, against Panthers at 4 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 11 on third down, against Buccaneers at 5 of 11 on third down.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.01 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.18 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Panthers165 of 177 plays carry both curves
(10:07) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left intended for 22-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Whitehead at TB 22. 33-J.Whitehead to TB 22 for no gain (22-C.McCaffrey).
Swing +13.1 for BuccaneersExpected points +5.43 for BuccaneersThe model had Panthers 22 points higher than the market did.play 13
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:07CAR +13% win prob(10:07) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left intended for 22-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Whitehead at TB 22. 33-J.Whitehead to TB 22 for no gain (22-C.McCaffrey).
1st · 7:40TB +11% win prob(7:40) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 13-M.Evans to CAR 21 for 50 yards (33-T.Boston).
1st · 4:57CAR +10% win prob(4:57) 5-T.Bridgewater sacked at CAR 25 for -3 yards (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield) [31-A.Winfield], RECOVERED by TB-90-J.Pierre-Paul at CAR 29. 90-J.Pierre-Paul to CAR 23 for 6 yards (22-C.McCaffrey; 28-M.Davis).
4th · 13:30TB +7% win prob(13:30) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:44TB +6% win prob(10:44) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep middle to 12-D.Moore to TB 22 for 19 yards (31-A.Winfield; 24-C.Davis).
1st · 11:59TB +6% win prob(11:59) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at TB 45 for 10 yards (58-S.Barrett) [45-D.White].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ronald Jones's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 5:47 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:47Ronald Jones·7-yd TD run7-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
1st4:45Mike Evans·23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+70–14
Panthers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Buccaneers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Panthers: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.02Buccaneers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.18Panthers: −0.18 expected points added per play
+0.01Buccaneers: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Panthers: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.07Buccaneers: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 71 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 57 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 4, Buccaneers 5.
NotePanthers outgained Buccaneers 427-339 but lost the turnover battle 4-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 29 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.6 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.77× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Buccaneers14.9%
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.9%, 10.6 points below their season mean of 13.4% and 1.8 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
75Michael SchofieldG · Every snap100%73 snaps
67John MillerG · Every snap100%73 snaps
72Taylor MotonT · Every snap100%73 snaps
5Teddy BridgewaterQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
61Matt ParadisC · Every snap100%73 snaps
76Russell OkungT · Every snap100%73 snaps
12D.J. MooreWR · Full-time89%65 snaps
11Robby AndersonWR · Heavy rotation74%54 snaps
10Curtis SamuelWR · Heavy rotation70%51 snaps
22Christian McCaffreyRB · Heavy rotation64%47 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Bridgewater pass−16% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:07) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left intended for 22-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Whitehead at TB 22. 33-J.Whitehead to TB 22 for no gain (22-C.McCaffrey).
Q1 10:07 · Panthers · 1st & 10 at TB 22 · gained nothing · -5.43 EP · −16.4% win probability
163 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 93 yards from the CAR 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
42%
Yards
766
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.1276%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.0667%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.1140%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.2882%
Panthers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR11-0.5555%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-1.0550%
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Panthers3 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Panthers 29 to the Buccaneers 22
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Panthers0Buccaneers6
Panthers0Buccaneers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 22 to the Panthers 7
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 28
Panthers0Buccaneers13
Panthers0Buccaneers14
Touchdown2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 41
The period ended3 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Buccaneers 17
2nd quarter47 plays
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Panthers 38
Punt10 plays, from the Panthers 41 to the Buccaneers 36
Panthers0Buccaneers20
Panthers0Buccaneers21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Panthers 1
Punt9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 45
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 31
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Fumble lost3 plays
Intercepted1 play
Panthers6Buccaneers21
Panthers7Buccaneers21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 47 to the Buccaneers 1
Punt13 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Panthers 36
The period ended10 plays, from the Panthers 7 to the Buccaneers 29
4th quarter52 plays
Panthers13Buccaneers21
Panthers14Buccaneers21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 15 to the Buccaneers 7
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 42
Intercepted4 plays, from the Panthers 12 to the Buccaneers 49
Panthers14Buccaneers24
Field goal8 plays, from the Buccaneers 40 to the Panthers 14
Panthers17Buccaneers24
Field goal11 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Buccaneers 5
Panthers17Buccaneers30
Panthers17Buccaneers31
Touchdown3 plays
The period ended12 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Buccaneers 18
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -7.5
Closing total
47
Panthers moneyline
+290
Buccaneers moneyline
-342
Buccaneers closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 47; the game landed 48 — over by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 83°F at kickoff; windy at 18 mph out of the north-east; 1.03 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Panthers 7 days · Buccaneers 7 days
Coaches
Matt Rhule vs Bruce Arians
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
NoteWind at 17.6 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
4th · 10:15CAR +5% win prob(10:15) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right intended for 12-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Davis [92-W.Gholston] at TB 38. 24-C.Davis to TB 40 for 2 yards (12-D.Moore).
1st · 6:15TB +5% win prob(6:15) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 25-L.McCoy to CAR 14 for 6 yards (57-A.Taylor). PENALTY on CAR-95-D.Brown, Unnecessary Roughness, 7 yards, enforced at CAR 14.
Pantherscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Panthers0
Buccaneers6
