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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:34 AM ET · 16 to play
Cincinnati Bengals 30 at Cleveland Browns 35. Final.
Browns -6 no coverO 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 2
Cleveland Browns 35, Bengals 30 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 10:25, 4th and 4, on Tyler Boyd — 9.6 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:25 · 4th and 4
Tyler Boyd
Bengals
(10:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at CLE 26 for 7 yards (20-T.Thomas).
Browns closed -6, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Cleveland Browns 35–30. Biggest swing: Q1 10:25, Bengals +9.6% win probability on one snap.
9.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Joe BurrowBrownsQ1 7:58(7:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CLE 20 for -11 yards (94-A.Clayborn).
6.5pts
Joe BurrowBrownsQ3 6:02(6:02) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 4 for -8 yards (95-M.Garrett). FUMBLES (95-M.Garrett) [97-P.Gustin], RECOVERED by CLE-91-J.Jackson at CIN 1. 91-J.Jackson to CIN 1 for no gain (74-F.Johnson).
6.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Bengals at 1 chunk play.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Browns won this one — +0.21 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.45 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns won this one — +0.34 expected points per snap, against Bengals at +0.07 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Browns won this one — 5 of 8 on third down, against Bengals at 8 of 18 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Bengals181 of 193 plays carry both curves
(10:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at CLE 26 for 7 yards (20-T.Thomas).
Swing −9.6 for BrownsExpected points −2.95 for BrownsThe model had Bengals 14 points higher than the market did.play 11
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:25CLE +10% win prob(10:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at CLE 26 for 7 yards (20-T.Thomas).
1st · 7:58CIN +6% win prob(7:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CLE 20 for -11 yards (94-A.Clayborn).
3rd · 6:02CIN +6% win prob(6:02) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 4 for -8 yards (95-M.Garrett). FUMBLES (95-M.Garrett) [97-P.Gustin], RECOVERED by CLE-91-J.Jackson at CIN 1. 91-J.Jackson to CIN 1 for no gain (74-F.Johnson).
2nd · 12:02CLE +6% win prob(12:02) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-O.Beckham for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
2nd · 1:36CLE +6% win prob(1:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 27-K.Hunt for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:49CLE +5% win prob(14:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 83-T.Boyd to CIN 49 for 10 yards (23-A.Sendejo).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Chubb's 11-yard rushing touchdown with 1:55 left in the 1st put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:17Randy Bullock·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+33–0
1st1:55Nick Chubb·11-yd TD run11-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+73–7
4th0:48Tyler Boyd·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+730–35
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryBrowns
Bengals1–7Browns
353Total yards437
4.1Yards per play7.8
46%Success rate54%
44%Third-down rate63%
2Red-zone touchdowns4
1Explosive plays12
27First downs23
3Sacks taken0
1Turnovers1
The read
Browns ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Bengals: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.34Browns: +0.34 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Bengals: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.53Browns: +0.53 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.45Bengals: −0.45 expected points added per play
+0.21Browns: +0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 87 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Browns’s 56 at 43%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 5, Browns 6.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CIN's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 2.9 points clear of the next team along.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CIN's early-down pass rate, 76.6%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 2.6 points clear of the next team along.
64 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.2 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CLE's early-down pass rate, 34.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 3.0 points clear of the next team along.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 27 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.5 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.96× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Browns10.4%
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 67 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 12.5 points below their season mean of 12.5% and 2.0 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass+11% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at CLE 26 for 7 yards (20-T.Thomas).
Q1 10:25 · Bengals · 4th & 4 at CLE 33 · gained 7 · +2.95 EP · +11.1% win probability
179 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 193 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 193 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 83 yards from the CIN 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
193 of 193 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
193
EPA per play
+0.17
Success rate
48%
Yards
787
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR72+0.0375%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.8643%
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10+0.5110%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.5967%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.9833%
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.4167%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR4——
Bengals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Bengals0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
193 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
193 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Bengals3Browns0
Field goal16 plays, from the Bengals 39 to the Browns 9
Bengals3Browns6
Bengals3Browns7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bengals 11
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 38
2nd quarter60 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Bengals 42
Bengals3Browns13
Bengals3Browns14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Browns 43 to the Bengals 43
Bengals9Browns14
Bengals10Browns14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bengals 43 to the Browns 23
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 34
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 13 to the Bengals 18
Bengals10Browns20
Bengals10Browns21
Touchdown15 plays, from the Browns 37 to the Bengals 6
Bengals13Browns21
Field goal17 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Browns 25
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Turnover on downs16 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bengals 1
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Bengals 1 to the Bengals 12
Bengals13Browns27
Bengals13Browns28
Touchdown3 plays
Bengals16Browns28
Field goal16 plays, from the Bengals 40 to the Browns 1
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter55 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Bengals 26
Bengals22Browns28
Bengals23Browns28
Touchdown16 plays, from the Bengals 17 to the Browns 4
Bengals23Browns34
Bengals23Browns35
Touchdown11 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Bengals 1
Bengals29Browns35
Bengals30Browns35
Touchdown19 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Browns 9
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
