2020 Week 2 · Thu, Sep 17, 2020 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland BrownsWinner

CLE -6 no coverO 44.5 ✓Browns closed -6, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Cleveland Browns 35–30. Biggest swing: Q1 10:25, CLE +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:25CIN — CLE CIN ball · 4th & 4CLE 70%

(10:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at CLE 26 for 7 yards (20-T.Thomas).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:25CLE +10% win prob(10:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 83-T.Boyd pushed ob at CLE 26 for 7 yards (20-T.Thomas).
Q1 · 7:58CIN +6% win prob(7:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CLE 20 for -11 yards (94-A.Clayborn).
Q3 · 6:02CIN +6% win prob(6:02) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 4 for -8 yards (95-M.Garrett). FUMBLES (95-M.Garrett) [97-P.Gustin], RECOVERED by CLE-91-J.Jackson at CIN 1. 91-J.Jackson to CIN 1 for no gain (74-F.Johnson).
Q2 · 12:02CLE +6% win prob(12:02) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-O.Beckham for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Browns
Offensive plays	87	56
Total yards	353	437 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	7.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.07	0.34 (edge)
Success rate	46%	54% (edge)
Dropback rate	77%	43%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23	0.53 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.45	0.21 (edge)
Third downs	8/18	5/8 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	27 (edge)	23
Sacks taken	3	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs 0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

37/61, 316 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

11.1 expected points added · -0.6% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

16/23, 219 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

11.0 expected points added · +12.4% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

22 att, 124 yds, 2 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Kareem HuntRB

10 att, 86 yds, 1 TD

6.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Odell BeckhamWR

4/6 for 74 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Tyler BoydWR

7/8 for 72 yds, 1 TD

14% of team targets · 15.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 39	16	41	7:47	Turnover on downs
2	CLE	CLE 25	12	90	5:25	Touchdown
3	CIN	CIN 25	7	17	3:20	Punt
4	CLE	CLE 43	4	57	1:34	Touchdown
5	CIN	CIN 43	8	57	2:54	Touchdown
6	CLE	CLE 25	5	23	1:39	Punt
7	CIN	CIN 13	5	12	1:56	Punt
8	CLE	CLE 37	13	63	3:54	Touchdown
9	CIN	CIN 25	13	55	1:29	Turnover on downs
10	CLE	CLE 25	2	0	0:02	End of half
11	CLE	CLE 25	14	79	6:58	Turnover on downs
12	CIN	CIN 1	5	-5	2:09	Fumble
13	CLE	CIN 1	3	1	0:08	Touchdown
14	CIN	CIN 40	15	33	5:25	Turnover on downs
15	CLE	CLE 25	8	49	3:58	Interception
16	CIN	CIN 17	15	68	5:27	Touchdown
17	CLE	CLE 25	8	75	2:00	Touchdown
18	CIN	CIN 25	18	75	3:12	Touchdown
19	CLE	CIN 46	2	0	0:43	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 90 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	37/61	316	3	0	3	11.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	16	46	2.9	-5.9
Joe Burrow	7	19	2.7	0.3
Giovani Bernard	1	3	3.0	1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Boyd	7	8	72	1	14%	15.2
Drew Sample	7	9	45	0	15%	2.0
C.J. Uzomah	4	6	42	1	10%	2.7
Joe Mixon	4	4	40	0	7%	2.3
Tee Higgins	3	6	35	0	10%	0.5
Mike Thomas	4	4	31	1	7%	2.9
A.J. Green	3	13	29	0	22%	-3.7
Giovani Bernard	5	7	22	0	12%	-1.3
John Ross	0	2	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Jessie Bates	3	7	0	0
Vonn Bell	2	6	0	0
Josh Bynes	2	5	0	0
D.J. Reader	3	3	0	0
William Jackson	4	1	1	1
Mackensie Alexander	2	2	0	0
Sam Hubbard	1	2	0	0
Carlos Dunlap	1	2	0	0
Christian Covington	1	2	0	0
Darius Phillips	2	0	0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	16/23	219	2	1	0	11.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	22	124	5.6	2	-0.1
Kareem Hunt	10	86	8.6	1	6.8
Baker Mayfield	3	5	1.7	0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Odell Beckham	4	6	74	1	29%	2.4
Jarvis Landry	3	3	46	0	14%	5.5
KhaDarel Hodge	2	2	39	0	10%	2.6
Austin Hooper	2	4	22	0	19%	2.6
Kareem Hunt	2	2	15	1	10%	3.9
Harrison Bryant	1	2	14	0	10%	-3.0
Nick Chubb	1	1	9	0	5%	0.5
Andy Janovich	1	1	0	0	5%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Andrew Sendejo	7	3	0.0	0
Tavierre Thomas	9	0	0.0	0
Malcolm Smith	5	4	0.0	0
B.J. Goodson	6	1	0.0	1
Sione Takitaki	3	2	0.0	0
Sheldon Richardson	3	2	1.0	0
Karl Joseph	2	3	0.0	0
Porter Gustin	2	2	0.0	0
Myles Garrett	3	0	1.0	0
Denzel Ward	2	1	0.0	3

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -6
Closing total: 44.5
CIN moneyline: +213
CLE moneyline: -243

Browns closed -6, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 65 — over by 20.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 65°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: CIN 4 days · CLE 4 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Kevin Stefanski

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.