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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:16 AM ET · 16 to play
Denver Broncos 21 at Pittsburgh Steelers 26. Final.
Steelers -6 no coverO 41 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 2
Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Broncos 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:55, 4th and 2, on Jeff Driskel — 24.0 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:55 · 4th and 2
Jeff Driskel
Steelers
(1:55) (Shotgun) 9-J.Driskel sacked at PIT 26 for -11 yards (34-T.Edmunds).
Steelers closed -6, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Pittsburgh Steelers 26–21. Biggest swing: Q4 1:55, Steelers +24.0% win probability on one snap.
24.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Drew LockSteelersQ1 7:53(7:53) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock sacked at PIT 36 for -11 yards (48-B.Dupree). FUMBLES (48-B.Dupree) [48-B.Dupree], RECOVERED by PIT-28-M.Hilton at PIT 33. 28-M.Hilton to PIT 41 for 8 yards (72-G.Bolles).
11.7pts
Jeff DriskelBroncosQ4 3:19(3:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Driskel pass incomplete deep middle to 81-T.Patrick [94-T.Alualu]. PENALTY on PIT-34-T.Edmunds, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at DEN 38 - No Play.
12.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Steelers at 5 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — -0.10 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.39 expected points per carry.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Steelers at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 15 on third down, against Steelers at 2 of 11 on third down.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Broncos176 of 188 plays carry both curves
(1:55) (Shotgun) 9-J.Driskel sacked at PIT 26 for -11 yards (34-T.Edmunds).
Swing +24.0 for SteelersExpected points +3.61 for SteelersModel and market agree here.play 179
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:55DEN +24% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 9-J.Driskel sacked at PIT 26 for -11 yards (34-T.Edmunds).
4th · 3:19PIT +12% win prob(3:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Driskel pass incomplete deep middle to 81-T.Patrick [94-T.Alualu]. PENALTY on PIT-34-T.Edmunds, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at DEN 38 - No Play.
1st · 7:53DEN +12% win prob(7:53) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock sacked at PIT 36 for -11 yards (48-B.Dupree). FUMBLES (48-B.Dupree) [48-B.Dupree], RECOVERED by PIT-28-M.Hilton at PIT 33. 28-M.Hilton to PIT 41 for 8 yards (72-G.Bolles).
4th · 3:14PIT +11% win prob(3:14) (Shotgun) 9-J.Driskel pass deep left to 87-N.Fant ran ob at PIT 23 for 22 yards [91-S.Tuitt]. Pittsburgh challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
4th · 2:00DEN +11% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Driskel pass incomplete short middle to 13-K.Hamler (55-D.Bush).
2nd · 6:34PIT +10% win prob(6:34) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 11-C.Claypool for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-A.Johnson]. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
James Conner's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 4:27 left in the 1st put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:27James Conner·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd12:11Brandon McManus·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+33–7
2nd6:34Chase Claypool·84-yd TD catch84-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+73–14
2nd0:42Chris Boswell·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap K.Canaday+33–17
3rd8:03Brandon McManus·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+36–17
3rd1:11Noah Fant·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Jeff Driskelfrom Jeff Driskel · two-point good+814–17
4th11:34Diontae Johnson·28-yd TD catch28-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+714–24
4th10:07Derek Watt·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+214–26
4th7:50Melvin Gordon·16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Jeff Driskelfrom Jeff Driskel+721–26
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categorySteelers
Broncos3–5Steelers
321Total yards412
4.4Yards per play6.6
36%Success rate42%
33%Third-down rate18%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
9Explosive plays5
18First downs19
7Sacks taken1
2Turnovers2
The read
Steelers ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.19Broncos: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.11Steelers: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.23Broncos: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.03Steelers: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Broncos: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.39Steelers: −0.39 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 73 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Steelers’s 62 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 4, Steelers 6.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's sack or hit rate turned over: 16.7% in week 1 against 37.5% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37 pts to 34 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.8 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.19× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Steelers37.5%
leaned — got home · +14.4 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.88× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 37.5%, 14.4 points above their season mean of 23.1% and 1.9 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Driskel sacked−26% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:55) (Shotgun) 9-J.Driskel sacked at PIT 26 for -11 yards (34-T.Edmunds).
Q4 1:55 · Broncos · 4th & 2 at PIT 15 · lost 11 · -3.61 EP · −25.7% win probability
174 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 84 yards from the PIT 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
38%
Yards
731
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.1665%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.1874%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.1067%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.0189%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.7650%
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Steelers 49
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Steelers 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Broncos 33 to the Steelers 25
Broncos0Steelers6
Broncos0Steelers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Steelers 41 to the Broncos 2
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 20 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 17 to the Steelers 19
2nd quarter54 plays
Broncos3Steelers7
Field goal6 plays, from the Steelers 36 to the Steelers 17
Punt10 plays, from the Steelers 22 to the Broncos 46
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 11 to the Broncos 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Broncos3Steelers13
Broncos3Steelers14
Touchdown2 plays
No good7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Steelers 30
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 48 to the Broncos 49
Intercepted1 play
Broncos3Steelers17
Field goal6 plays, from the Broncos 11 to the Broncos 2
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 42
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Steelers 47 to the Broncos 42
Broncos6Steelers17
Field goal10 plays, from the Steelers 41 to the Steelers 4
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Broncos 35
Broncos12Steelers17
Broncos14Steelers17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Steelers 20
The period ended4 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 46
4th quarter50 plays
Broncos14Steelers23
Broncos14Steelers24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Steelers 49 to the Broncos 28
Broncos14Steelers26
Punt5 plays
Fumble lost2 plays
Broncos20Steelers26
Broncos21Steelers26
Touchdown8 plays, from the Broncos 46 to the Steelers 16
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Broncos 18 to the Steelers 15
The period ended9 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Broncos 6
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
