2020 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 2020 · Lambeau Field

Detroit Lions

Green Bay PackersWinner

GB -7 ✓O 51 ✓Packers closed -7 and covered, winning by 21.

Green Bay Packers 42–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 0:19, GB +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:19DET — GB GB ball · 2nd & 10GB 61%

(:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 85-R.Tonyan for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-29-D.Roberts, Defensive Holding, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:19GB +17% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 85-R.Tonyan for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-29-D.Roberts, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q2 · 1:08GB +13% win prob(1:08) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to GB 38, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.
Q2 · 0:03DET +10% win prob(:03) 5-M.Prater 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q3 · 15:00GB +10% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Packers
Offensive plays	58	65
Total yards	307	491 (edge)
Yards per play	5.3	7.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.04	0.41 (edge)
Success rate	47%	52% (edge)
Dropback rate	66%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13	0.46 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15	0.35 (edge)
Third downs	6/12	6/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs -0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

20/33, 244 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-6.0 expected points added · -0.6% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

18/30, 240 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

14.8 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

18 att, 168 yds, 2 TD

8.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Jamaal WilliamsRB

8 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Aaron JonesRB

4/8 for 68 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR

3/7 for 64 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DET	DET 25	10	60	4:27	Touchdown
2	GB	GB 25	13	50	4:51	Turnover on downs
3	DET	DET 25	15	75	5:38	Touchdown
4	GB	GB 25	11	70	4:55	Touchdown
5	DET	DET 25	11	35	4:02	Punt
6	GB	GB 10	8	53	4:22	Punt
7	DET	DET 7	4	-2	0:45	Punt
8	GB	GB 38	5	32	0:46	Touchdown
9	DET	DET 25	4	31	0:14	Turnover on downs
10	GB	GB 25	3	75	0:12	Touchdown
11	DET	DET 25	5	4	1:39	Punt
12	GB	GB 21	9	55	4:32	Punt
13	DET	DET 5	1	0	0:05	Defensive touchdown
14	DET	DET 25	5	9	0:59	Punt
15	GB	GB 14	12	64	6:01	Turnover on downs
16	DET	DET 25	10	75	3:32	Touchdown
17	GB	GB 26	9	81	5:01	Touchdown
18	DET	DET 23	5	-10	1:45	Punt
19	GB	GB 36	4	0	1:53	Punt
20	DET	DET 10	5	30	2:08	Turnover on downs
21	GB	DET 40	5	11	2:13	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 81 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	20/33	244	2	1	4	-6.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Adrian Peterson	7	41	5.9	0	1.9
Kerryon Johnson	8	32	4.0	1	2.3
D'Andre Swift	5	12	2.4	0	-1.2
Matthew Stafford	1	4	4.0	0	1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
T.J. Hockenson	4	4	62	0	13%	2.2
D'Andre Swift	5	5	60	0	17%	3.6
Quintez Cephus	3	3	54	0	10%	3.6
Marvin Hall	1	2	24	1	7%	2.0
Marvin Jones	4	6	23	1	20%	2.9
Danny Amendola	2	7	21	0	23%	-8.5
Kerryon Johnson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
Jamal Agnew	1	1	0	0	3%	-2.1
Ty Johnson	0	1	0	0	3%	-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jeff Okudah	6	0	0.0	0
Jarrad Davis	3	2	0.0	0
Jahlani Tavai	2	3	0.0	0
Will Harris	4	1	0.0	0
Jamie Collins	4	1	1.0	0
Danny Shelton	2	3	0.0	0
Kevin Strong	2	2	0.0	0
Christian Jones	3	1	0.0	1
Amani Oruwariye	3	0	0.0	0
Duron Harmon	2	1	0.0	1

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	18/30	240	2	0	1	14.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	18	168	9.3	2	8.1
Jamaal Williams	8	63	7.9	0	3.5
A.J. Dillon	5	17	3.4	0	-0.4
Aaron Rodgers	2	12	6.0	0	0.5
Tim Boyle	2	-1	-0.5	0	-3.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Aaron Jones	4	8	68	1	27%	4.4
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	3	7	64	0	23%	2.7
Allen Lazard	3	5	45	0	17%	5.6
Davante Adams	3	3	36	0	10%	3.6
Robert Tonyan	2	3	25	1	10%	2.9
Tyler Ervin	1	1	4	0	3%	0.0
Marcedes Lewis	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.2
Jace Sternberger	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9
Aaron Rodgers	1	1	-6	0	3%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Christian Kirksey	8	3	0.0
Jaire Alexander	3	2	0.0
Kevin King	3	1	0.0
Za'Darius Smith	3	1	1.0
Darnell Savage	2	2	0.0
Preston Smith	2	1	0.5
Rashan Gary	1	2	1.5
Krys Barnes	1	2	0.0
Vernon Scott	3	0	1.0
Adrian Amos	1	1	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -7
Closing total: 51
DET moneyline: +245
GB moneyline: -284

Packers closed -7 and covered, winning by 21.

Total closed 51; the game landed 63 — over by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 66°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: DET 7 days · GB 7 days
Coaches: Matt Patricia vs Matt LaFleur

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.