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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:37 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Lions167 of 179 plays carry both curves
(:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 85-R.Tonyan for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-29-D.Roberts, Defensive Holding, declined.
Swing +16.8 for PackersExpected points +3.37 for PackersThe model had Lions 10 points higher than the market did.play 86
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:19GB +17% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 85-R.Tonyan for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-29-D.Roberts, Defensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 1:08GB +13% win prob(1:08) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to GB 38, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.
2nd · 0:03DET +10% win prob(:03) 5-M.Prater 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-3-J.Fox.
3rd · 15:00GB +10% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:39GB +10% win prob(2:39) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 32-D.Swift to GB 35 for 14 yards (58-C.Kirksey).
2nd · 0:54GB +7% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to DET 39 for 8 yards (25-W.Harris). PENALTY on DET-25-W.Harris, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at DET 39.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Robert Tonyan's 11-yard touchdown catch with 0:19 left in the 2nd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Packers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Lions: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.41Packers: +0.41 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.13Lions: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.46Packers: +0.46 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.15Lions: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.35Packers: +0.35 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 58 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Packers’s 65 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Lions 3, Packers 5.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's pass rate over expected, +9.7 pts, sat 10.4 points above their season number of −0.7 pts — they threw more than the situation asked by 2.1 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
GB's pass rate over expected turned over: +8.0 pts in week 1 against −8.7 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 9.7%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Packers15.8%
inside their normal wobble · +2.9 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDET's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 9.7 pts, 10.4 points above their season mean of -0.7 pts and 2.1 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass+16% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 85-R.Tonyan for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-29-D.Roberts, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q2 0:19 · Packers · 2nd & 10 at DET 11 · gained 11 · +3.37 EP · +15.8% win probability
165 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 75 yards from the DET 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
46%
Yards
797
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.1273%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR23+0.4057%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.4024%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18+0.3761%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.0657%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.1160%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Packers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Lions6Packers0
Lions7Packers0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Packers 1
Lions7Packers3
Field goal14 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Lions 25
Lions13Packers3
Lions14Packers3
Touchdown15 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Packers 4
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Lions14Packers9
Lions14Packers10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 29 to the Lions 7
Punt11 plays, from the Lions 25 to midfield
Punt11 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Lions 47
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 7 to the Lions 11
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Lions14Packers16
Lions14Packers17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Packers 38 to the Lions 11
No good7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Packers 39
3rd quarter46 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Lions14Packers23
Lions14Packers24
Touchdown3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 29
Punt11 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Lions 18
Lions14Packers30
Touchdown1 play
Lions14Packers31
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 34
Lions14Packers34
Field goal14 plays, from the Packers 14 to the Lions 17
The period ended6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 44
4th quarter38 plays
Lions20Packers34
Lions21Packers34
Touchdown5 plays, from the Packers 39 to the Packers 24
Lions21Packers40
Lions21Packers42
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Lions 14
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 36 to the Packers 42
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Lions 10 to the Lions 46
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 40 to the Lions 29
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
