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2020 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 2020 · Nissan Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

30

Tennessee TitansWinner

33

TEN -7 no coverO 44.5 ✓

Tennessee Titans 33–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:51, JAX +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TEN ↑JAX ↓
Q4 · 0:51JAX — TEN JAX ball · 2nd & 1TEN 80%

(:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short middle intended for 84-K.Cole INTERCEPTED by 58-H.Landry (98-J.Simmons) at JAX 39. 58-H.Landry to JAX 39 for no gain (74-C.Robinson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:51JAX +18% win prob(:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short middle intended for 84-K.Cole INTERCEPTED by 58-H.Landry (98-J.Simmons) at JAX 39. 58-H.Landry to JAX 39 for no gain (74-C.Robinson).
  2. Q4 · 7:29TEN +15% win prob(7:29) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 34-C.Thompson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q1 · 14:52TEN +11% win prob(14:52) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 81-J.Smith to JAX 14 for 63 yards (42-A.Wingard).
  4. Q1 · 7:51JAX +10% win prob(7:51) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right intended for 19-C.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Fulton at TEN 26. 26-K.Fulton to JAX 30 for 44 yards (60-A.Cann).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsTitans
Offensive plays7457
Total yards480 (edge)356
Yards per play6.5 (edge)6.2
Expected points added / play0.250.27 (edge)
Success rate55%56% (edge)
Dropback rate68%47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.290.71 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.17 (edge)-0.13
Third downs10/14 (edge)7/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps29 (edge)19
Sacks taken21 (edge)
Turnovers20 (edge)

Jaguars outgained Titans 480–356 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Gardner MinshewQB

30/45, 339 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

11.4 expected points added · +5.7% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

18/24, 239 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

18.0 expected points added · +8.7% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

16 att, 102 yds, 1 TD

3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

25 att, 84 yds, 0 TD

-4.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

D.J. CharkWR

4/4 for 84 yds, 0 TD

9% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Jonnu SmithTE

4/5 for 84 yds, 2 TD

21% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TENTEN 235771:38Touchdown
2JAXJAX 2513395:43Interception
3TENJAX 306301:56Touchdown
4JAXJAX 258752:00Touchdown
5TENTEN 2512455:44Punt
6JAXJAX 610395:22Punt
7TENTEN 1514635:50Touchdown
8JAXJAX 2511581:35Turnover on downs
9TENJAX 493160:12Turnover on downs
10JAXJAX 1116897:56Touchdown
11TENTEN 2511655:00Touchdown
12JAXJAX 259752:48Touchdown
13TENTEN 22571:49Punt
14JAXJAX 1410715:02Touchdown
15TENTEN 218321:49Punt
16JAXJAX 116142:07Punt
17TENTEN 408211:53Turnover on downs
18JAXJAX 254200:49Interception
19TENJAX 39200:47End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 89 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Gardner Minshew30/4533932211.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Robinson161026.413.1
Laviska Shenault Jr.5377.401.7
Gardner Minshew4194.802.4
Chris Thompson273.500.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
D.J. Chark448409%7.0
Keelan Cole6758116%4.4
Chris Conley4748016%2.2
James O'Shaughnessy444009%2.9
Tyler Eifert3636114%3.6
Laviska Shenault Jr.343509%2.0
Chris Thompson342019%2.1
James Robinson341809%0.4
Collin Johnson03007%-8.0
Bruce Miller01002%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Myles Jack460.001
Andrew Wingard720.000
Joe Schobert340.000
C.J. Henderson420.001
Adam Gotsis310.000
Josh Jones220.000
Cassius Marsh210.000
K'Lavon Chaisson111.000
Cam Robinson100.000
Dawuane Smoot100.000

Tennessee Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Ryan Tannehill18/2423940118.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Derrick Henry25843.40-4.8
Ryan Tannehill4123.00-0.4
Cameron Batson11111.000.8
Senorise Perry294.500.4
Jeremy McNichols273.50-0.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jonnu Smith4584221%7.5
Adam Humphries5648125%4.8
Anthony Firkser4445017%4.9
Corey Davis3536121%3.6
Cameron Batson222608%1.2
Derrick Henry02008%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Malcolm Butler830.002
Kenny Vaccaro911.002
Jayon Brown340.001
Rashaan Evans510.000
Chris Jackson330.000
Harold Landry230.012
Jeffery Simmons030.001
Johnathan Joseph120.001
Tye Smith110.000
Kevin Byard110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
TEN -7
Closing total
44.5
JAX moneyline
+254
TEN moneyline
-295

Titans closed -7, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 63 — over by 18.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
72°F, wind 5 mph
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
JAX 7 days · TEN 6 days
Coaches
Doug Marrone vs Mike Vrabel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.