For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:16 AM ET · 16 to play
Jacksonville Jaguars 30 at Tennessee Titans 33. Final.
Titans -7 no coverO 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 2
Tennessee Titans 33, Jaguars 30 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:51, 2nd and 1, on Harold Landry — 18.3 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:51 · 2nd and 1
Harold Landry
Titans
(:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short middle intended for 84-K.Cole INTERCEPTED by 58-H.Landry (98-J.Simmons) at JAX 39. 58-H.Landry to JAX 39 for no gain (74-C.Robinson).
Titans closed -7, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Tennessee Titans 33–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:51, Titans +18.3% win probability on one snap.
18.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jonnu SmithTitansQ1 14:52(14:52) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 81-J.Smith to JAX 14 for 63 yards (42-A.Wingard).
11.5pts
Chris ThompsonJaguarsQ4 7:29(7:29) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 34-C.Thompson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Titans won this one — no giveaways, against Jaguars at 2 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Titans at 4 chunk plays.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.13 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Titans won this one — +0.71 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at +0.29 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Jaguars174 of 185 plays carry both curves
(:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short middle intended for 84-K.Cole INTERCEPTED by 58-H.Landry (98-J.Simmons) at JAX 39. 58-H.Landry to JAX 39 for no gain (74-C.Robinson).
Swing +18.3 for TitansExpected points +2.70 for TitansThe model had Jaguars 11 points higher than the market did.play 182
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:51JAX +18% win prob(:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short middle intended for 84-K.Cole INTERCEPTED by 58-H.Landry (98-J.Simmons) at JAX 39. 58-H.Landry to JAX 39 for no gain (74-C.Robinson).
4th · 7:29TEN +15% win prob(7:29) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 34-C.Thompson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:52TEN +11% win prob(14:52) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 81-J.Smith to JAX 14 for 63 yards (42-A.Wingard).
1st · 7:51JAX +10% win prob(7:51) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right intended for 19-C.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Fulton at TEN 26. 26-K.Fulton to JAX 30 for 44 yards (60-A.Cann).
4th · 1:57TEN +8% win prob(1:57) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short left to 86-A.Firkser (44-M.Jack). PENALTY on JAX-44-M.Jack, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at JAX 44 - No Play.
4th · 2:37TEN +7% win prob(2:37) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 10-A.Humphries to JAX 44 for 5 yards (37-T.Herndon, 47-J.Schobert).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Stephen Gostkowski's 49-yard field goal with 1:41 left in the 4th put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st13:28Jonnu Smith·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+70–7
1st5:48Corey Davis·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+70–14
4th1:41Stephen Gostkowski·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.BrinkleyLead never changed again+330–33
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryTitans
Jaguars5–3Titans
480Total yards356
6.5Yards per play6.2
55%Success rate56%
71%Third-down rate64%
4Red-zone touchdowns4
8Explosive plays4
29First downs19
2Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
Jaguars ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Titans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.71 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.25Jaguars: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.27Titans: +0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.29Jaguars: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.71Titans: +0.71 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.17Jaguars: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.13Titans: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 74 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Titans’s 57 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 5, Titans 4.
NoteJaguars outgained Titans 480-356 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's pass rate over expected turned over: −2.7 pts in week 1 against −13.6 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · +1.6 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Titans10.0%
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was TEN's pass rate over expected, -13.6 pts against a season mean of -9.7 pts — and TEN swings 5.4 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
68Andrew NorwellG · Every snap100%76 snaps
74Cam RobinsonT · Every snap100%76 snaps
60A.J. CannG · Every snap100%76 snaps
75Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%76 snaps
15Gardner MinshewQB · Every snap99%75 snaps
17D.J. CharkWR · Heavy rotation78%59 snaps
84Keelan ColeWR · Heavy rotation67%51 snaps
88Tyler EifertTE · Heavy rotation59%45 snaps
10Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Heavy rotation57%43 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Minshew pass−28% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short middle intended for 84-K.Cole INTERCEPTED by 58-H.Landry (98-J.Simmons) at JAX 39. 58-H.Landry to JAX 39 for no gain (74-C.Robinson).
Q4 0:51 · Jaguars · 2nd & 1 at JAX 45 · gained nothing · -2.70 EP · −27.5% win probability
172 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 185 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 89 yards from the JAX 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
+0.20
Success rate
50%
Yards
834
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.5873%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.5159%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.1823%
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12-0.5367%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.4129%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.60100%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.2020%
Jaguars0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR4——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Jaguars0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.3 seconds
Jaguars0Titans6
Jaguars0Titans7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Titans 23 to the Jaguars 13
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted13 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Titans 36
Jaguars0Titans13
Jaguars0Titans14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 9
Jaguars6Titans14
Jaguars7Titans14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Titans 19
The period ended13 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Jaguars 43
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 33 to the Jaguars 32
Punt11 plays, from the Jaguars 6 to the Titans 49
Jaguars7Titans20
Jaguars7Titans21
Touchdown17 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Jaguars 4
Jaguars10Titans21
Field goal13 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Titans 17
Jaguars10Titans24
Field goal4 plays, from the Jaguars 49 to the Jaguars 33
3rd quarter36 plays
Jaguars16Titans24
Jaguars17Titans24
Touchdown17 plays, from the Jaguars 11 to the Titans 17
Jaguars17Titans30
Touchdown13 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Jaguars 18
The period ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Titans 20
4th quarter53 plays
Jaguars23Titans30
Touchdown4 plays, from the Titans 8 to the Titans 2
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 22 to the Titans 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
Jaguars29Titans30
Jaguars30Titans30
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jaguars 14 to the Titans 14
Punt9 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Jaguars 42
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 11 to the Jaguars 25
Jaguars30Titans33
Field goal11 plays, from the Titans 40 to the Jaguars 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 45
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Jaguarscategory by categoryTitans
Jaguars0
Titans6
