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Kansas City Chiefs 23 at Los Angeles Chargers 20. Final.
Chiefs -8.5 no coverU 47 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 2
Kansas City Chiefs 23, Chargers 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 2:00, 4th and 6, on Harrison Butker — 40.8 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 2:00 · 4th and 6
Harrison Butker
Chiefs
(2:00) 7-H.Butker 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Dome
Chiefs closed -8.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 2:00, Chiefs +40.8% win probability on one snap.
40.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Patrick MahomesChiefsQ4 0:54(:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle to LAC 24 for 21 yards (24-N.Adderley).
28.0pts
Darwin ThompsonChiefsOT 4:06(4:06) 75-M.Remmers reported in as eligible. 34-D.Thompson right guard to LAC 44 for 2 yards (52-D.Perryman; 56-K.Murray Jr.).
23.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Chiefs at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — no giveaways, against Chargers at 1 giveaway.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Chargers at 7 chunk plays.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 21.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Chiefs193 of 206 plays carry both curves
(2:00) 7-H.Butker 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Swing −40.8 for ChargersExpected points −2.00 for ChargersModel and market agree here.play 205
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 2:00LAC +41% win prob(2:00) 7-H.Butker 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
4th · 0:54LAC +28% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle to LAC 24 for 21 yards (24-N.Adderley).
Overtime · 4:06LAC +24% win prob(4:06) 75-M.Remmers reported in as eligible. 34-D.Thompson right guard to LAC 44 for 2 yards (52-D.Perryman; 56-K.Murray Jr.).
4th · 12:58LAC +21% win prob(12:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 0:25KC +21% win prob(:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end ran ob at LAC 12 for 5 yards. PENALTY on KC-70-K.Osemele, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 17 - No Play.
4th · 0:03KC +20% win prob(:03) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Harrison Butker's 58-yard field goal with 2:00 left in overtime put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
3rd8:11Michael Badgley·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap C.Mazza+36–17
3rd3:17Harrison Butker·58-yd field goal58-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+39–17
4th12:58Tyreek Hill·54-yd TD catch54-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes · two-point good+817–17
4th2:31Michael Badgley·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap C.Mazza+317–20
4th0:03Harrison Butker·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+320–20
Overtime2:00Harrison Butker·58-yd field goal58-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+323–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryChargers
Chiefs4–5Chargers
416Total yards479
5.9Yards per play6.1
42%Success rate49%
47%Third-down rate46%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays7
24First downs27
1Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Chargers ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Chiefs: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.04Chargers: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.17Chiefs: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.07Chargers: +0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Chiefs: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.02Chargers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 71 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Chargers’s 78 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 3, Chargers 3.
NoteChargers outgained Chiefs 479-416 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's early-down pass rate turned over: 45.3% in week 1 against 72.2% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 29 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.3 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Chargers14.5%
right on their number · +0.3 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 39.7%, 15.9 points below their season mean of 55.6% and 1.6 times their own 9.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
53 dressed · 8 never used
77Andrew WylieOT · Every snap100%77 snaps
62Austin ReiterC · Every snap100%77 snaps
72Eric FisherT · Every snap100%77 snaps
70Kelechi OsemeleG · Every snap100%77 snaps
71Mitchell SchwartzT · Every snap100%77 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%77 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time96%74 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Full-time90%69 snaps
17Mecole HardmanWR · Heavy rotation65%50 snaps
11Demarcus RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation62%48 snaps
25Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Heavy rotation62%48 snaps
14Sammy WatkinsWR · Heavy rotation58%45 snaps
34Darwin ThompsonRB · Situational19%15 snaps
48Nick KeizerTE · Situational14%11 snaps
31Darrel WilliamsRB · Situational13%10 snaps
42Anthony ShermanFB · Situational9%7 snaps
13Byron PringleWR · Situational9%7 snaps
75Mike RemmersT · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Daniel KilgoreCCharvarius WardCBDemone HarrisDEAlex OkaforDEYasir DurantOTChad HenneQBRicky Seals-JonesTEDeon YelderTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
Harrison Butker+41% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:00) 7-H.Butker 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
OT 2:00 · Chiefs · 4th & 6 at LAC 40 · gained nothing · +2.00 EP · +40.8% win probability
191 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 206 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 206 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 95 yards from the KC 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
206 of 206 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
206
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
41%
Yards
895
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60+0.0475%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.0257%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.296%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.2455%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.5650%
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
206 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
206 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Chiefs0Chargers6
Chiefs0Chargers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Chiefs 4
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 47
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 15 to midfield
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 11 to the Chiefs 24
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Chargers 37 to the Chiefs 34
Punt5 plays
2nd quarter54 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 34 to the Chargers 42
Chiefs6Chargers7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the Chargers 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Chiefs6Chargers13
Chiefs6Chargers14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chargers 29 to the Chiefs 10
Punt11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 44
The period ended13 plays, from the Chargers 7 to the Chiefs 47
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 46
Chiefs6Chargers17
Field goal12 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chiefs 23
Chiefs9Chargers17
Field goal11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chargers 32
Intercepted7 plays, from the Chargers 16 to the Chiefs 39
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter46 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Chiefs15Chargers17
Chiefs17Chargers17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 6 to the Chiefs 46
Chiefs17Chargers20
Field goal20 plays, from the Chargers 13 to the Chiefs 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFive
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Chiefs20Chargers20
Field goal18 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chargers 12
Overtime23 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Chiefs23Chargers20
Field goal17 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Chargers 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -8.5
Closing total
47
Chiefs moneyline
-370
Chargers moneyline
+311
Chiefs closed -8.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 47; the game landed 43 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Chiefs 10 days · Chargers 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Anthony Lynn
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 1:14KC +13% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire to LAC 10 for 25 yards (24-N.Adderley). PENALTY on KC-77-A.Wylie, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 35 - No Play.
4th · 0:19LAC +13% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 11-D.Robinson to LAC 13 for 14 yards (26-C.Hayward Jr.).
