2020 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 2020 · SoFi Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Los Angeles Chargers

KC -8.5 no coverU 47 ✓DomeChiefs closed -8.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 2:00, LAC +41% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 2:00KC — LAC KC ball · 4th & 6KC 59%

(2:00) 7-H.Butker 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 2:00LAC +41% win prob(2:00) 7-H.Butker 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Q4 · 0:54LAC +28% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle to LAC 24 for 21 yards (24-N.Adderley).
OT · 4:06LAC +24% win prob(4:06) 75-M.Remmers reported in as eligible. 34-D.Thompson right guard to LAC 44 for 2 yards (52-D.Perryman; 56-K.Murray Jr.).
Q4 · 12:58LAC +21% win prob(12:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Chargers
Offensive plays	71	78
Total yards	416	479 (edge)
Yards per play	5.9	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.12 (edge)	0.04
Success rate	42%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	77%	47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.17 (edge)	0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05	0.02 (edge)
Third downs	7/15 (edge)	6/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	24	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Chargers outgained Chiefs 479–416 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

22/33, 311 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.7 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

27/47, 302 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.7 expected points added · -9.3% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

16 att, 93 yds, 0 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Joshua KelleyRB

23 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

-2.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Tyreek HillWR

5/11 for 99 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

7/10 for 96 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · -1.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 21	10	79	3:37	Touchdown
2	KC	KC 25	6	22	1:33	Punt
3	LAC	LAC 15	7	35	3:26	Punt
4	KC	KC 11	5	13	1:35	Punt
5	LAC	LAC 37	8	24	3:21	Turnover on downs
6	KC	KC 34	5	10	1:28	Punt
7	LAC	LAC 34	4	8	1:33	Punt
8	KC	KC 27	11	73	4:36	Touchdown
9	LAC	LAC 29	13	81	6:21	Touchdown
10	KC	KC 25	8	19	1:37	Punt
11	LAC	LAC 7	7	74	0:53	End of half
12	KC	KC 25	7	20	2:03	Punt
13	LAC	LAC 20	12	57	4:50	Turnover on downs
14	KC	KC 25	10	40	4:56	Turnover on downs
15	LAC	LAC 16	7	45	2:52	Interception
16	KC	KC 5	7	92	2:31	Touchdown
17	LAC	LAC 13	18	67	10:21	Turnover on downs
18	KC	KC 25	13	88	2:27	Turnover on downs
19	LAC	LAC 25	5	9	2:13	Punt
20	KC	KC 21	13	39	5:52	Turnover on downs

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 92 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	27/47	302	2	0	1	3.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	6	54	9.0	5.5
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	10	38	3.8	-2.9
Darwin Thompson	4	21	5.3	2.4
Tyreek Hill	1	9	9.0	-0.2
Mecole Hardman	1	3	3.0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	5	11	99	1	24%	2.9
Travis Kelce	9	14	90	1	31%	3.5
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	6	8	32	0	18%	-1.9
Mecole Hardman	2	3	30	0	7%	2.4
Demarcus Robinson	3	4	28	0	9%	0.5
Darrel Williams	1	1	12	0	2%	0.7
Sammy Watkins	1	3	11	0	7%	0.4
Darwin Thompson	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Damien Wilson	6	4	0	0
Ben Niemann	5	4	0	0
Derrick Nnadi	2	7	0	0
Anthony Hitchens	7	2	0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	6	1	1	1
Tyrann Mathieu	1	4	0	1
Tanoh Kpassagnon	3	1	0	1
Juan Thornhill	1	3	0	0
Tershawn Wharton	3	1	0	0
Tedric Thompson	2	1	0	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	22/33	311	1	1	2	2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Austin Ekeler	16	93	5.8	0	1.8
Joshua Kelley	23	64	2.8	0	-2.9
Justin Herbert	4	18	4.5	1	1.2
Joe Reed	1	8	8.0	0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	7	10	96	0	33%	-1.4
Hunter Henry	6	8	83	0	27%	1.0
Austin Ekeler	4	4	55	0	13%	4.6
Joshua Kelley	2	2	49	0	7%	2.8
Mike Williams	2	4	14	0	13%	-1.5
Jalen Guyton	1	2	14	1	7%	3.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kenneth Murray	5	4	0.0	1
Chris Harris	4	4	0.0	1
Kyzir White	5	2	0.0	0
Michael Davis	4	2	0.0	2
Joey Bosa	2	2	1.0	0
Desmond King	4	0	0.0	0
Nasir Adderley	3	1	0.0	0
Rayshawn Jenkins	1	2	0.0	0
Linval Joseph	2	1	0.0	0
Casey Hayward	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -8.5
Closing total: 47
KC moneyline: -370
LAC moneyline: +311

Chiefs closed -8.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 47; the game landed 43 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: KC 10 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Anthony Lynn

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.