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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:37 AM ET · 16 to play
2020 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 2020 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
RamsLos Angeles37
BY 18final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia19
Los Angeles Rams 37 at Philadelphia Eagles 19. Final.
Eagles -2 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 2
Los Angeles Rams 37, Eagles 19 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 8:14, 1st and 10, on Darious Williams — 20.7 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 8:14 · 1st and 10
Darious Williams
Rams
(8:14) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle intended for 19-J.Arcega-Whiteside INTERCEPTED by 31-D.Williams at LA -2. Touchback.
O 46 ✓
Eagles closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Los Angeles Rams 37–19 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 8:14, Rams +20.7% win probability on one snap.
20.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Miles SandersRamsQ1 13:43(13:43) 26-M.Sanders left end to PHI 38 for 3 yards (59-M.Kiser). FUMBLES (59-M.Kiser), RECOVERED by LA-41-K.Young at PHI 41.
14.6pts
Unnamed on the sheetEaglesQ2 1:01(1:01) 1-C.Johnston punts 59 yards to LA 3, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-C.Kupp to LA 12 for 9 yards (57-T.Edwards). FUMBLES (57-T.Edwards), RECOVERED by PHI-42-K.Wallace at LA 11. 42-K.Wallace to LA 11 for no gain (24-T.Rapp).
13.6pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Eagles at 3 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.70 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at -0.21 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Rams won this one — no giveaways, against Eagles at 3 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.44 expected points per snap, against Eagles at -0.09 expected points per snap.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Rams170 of 180 plays carry both curves
(8:14) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle intended for 19-J.Arcega-Whiteside INTERCEPTED by 31-D.Williams at LA -2. Touchback.
Swing −20.7 for EaglesExpected points −5.26 for EaglesThe model had Rams 5 points higher than the market did.play 105
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 8:14LA +21% win prob(8:14) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle intended for 19-J.Arcega-Whiteside INTERCEPTED by 31-D.Williams at LA -2. Touchback.
1st · 13:43LA +15% win prob(13:43) 26-M.Sanders left end to PHI 38 for 3 yards (59-M.Kiser). FUMBLES (59-M.Kiser), RECOVERED by LA-41-K.Young at PHI 41.
2nd · 1:01PHI +14% win prob(1:01) 1-C.Johnston punts 59 yards to LA 3, Center-45-R.Lovato. 10-C.Kupp to LA 12 for 9 yards (57-T.Edwards). FUMBLES (57-T.Edwards), RECOVERED by PHI-42-K.Wallace at LA 11. 42-K.Wallace to LA 11 for no gain (24-T.Rapp).
4th · 11:00PHI +8% win prob(11:00) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 89-T.Higbee for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 12:07PHI +7% win prob(12:07) 27-D.Henderson left guard to PHI 35 for 40 yards (24-D.Slay).
3rd · 8:47PHI +7% win prob(8:47) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 10-D.Jackson pushed ob at LA 21 for 9 yards (22-T.Hill).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Higbee's 4-yard touchdown catch with 11:19 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:19Tyler Higbee·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared GoffLead never changed again+77–0
1st6:46Jake Elliott·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+37–3
3rd2:18Sam Sloman·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+324–16
4th12:11Jake Elliott·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+324–19
4th11:00Tyler Higbee·28-yd TD catch28-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+731–19
4th3:41Darrell Henderson·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownkick blocked by H.Ridgeway+637–19
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryEagles
Rams8–1Eagles
452Total yards363
7.1Yards per play5.2
56%Success rate49%
64%Third-down rate58%
4Red-zone touchdowns2
11Explosive plays3
28First downs25
1Sacks taken0
0Turnovers3
The read
Rams ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.70 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.44Rams: +0.44 expected points added per play
−0.09Eagles: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.70Rams: +0.70 expected points added per play
−0.21Eagles: −0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.21Rams: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.10Eagles: +0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 64 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Eagles’s 70 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Rams 6, Eagles 4.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.44 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's pass rate over expected turned over: +9.9 pts in week 1 against −1.5 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.2 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.40× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Eagles10.0%
inside their normal wobble · −7.8 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 38.5%, 16.8 points below their season mean of 55.2% and 1.8 times their own 9.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
66Austin BlytheC · Every snap100%69 snaps
63Austin CorbettT · Every snap100%69 snaps
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%69 snaps
77Andrew WhitworthT · Every snap100%69 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Full-time86%59 snaps
10Cooper KuppWR · Full-time86%59 snaps
17Robert WoodsWR · Full-time86%59 snaps
11Josh ReynoldsWR · Heavy rotation61%42 snaps
70Joe NoteboomT · Heavy rotation58%40 snaps
34Malcolm BrownRB · Heavy rotation54%37 snaps
81Gerald EverettTE · Rotational43%30 snaps
73David EdwardsT · Rotational42%29 snaps
27Darrell HendersonRB · Rotational42%29 snaps
12Van JeffersonWR · Rotational38%26 snaps
23Cam AkersRB · Situational4%3 snaps
82Johnny MundtTE · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Brian AllenCEric BanksDETremayne AnchrumOGRaymond CalaisRBBrycen HopkinsTETrishton JacksonWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Wentz pass−16% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(8:14) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle intended for 19-J.Arcega-Whiteside INTERCEPTED by 31-D.Williams at LA -2. Touchback.
Q3 8:14 · Eagles · 1st & 10 at LA 21 · gained nothing · -5.26 EP · −16.4% win probability
168 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 80 yards from the LA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
48%
Yards
812
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR56-0.0568%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.5151%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.2225%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR11-0.4336%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Eagles 21 to the Eagles 35
Rams6Eagles0
Rams7Eagles0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Eagles 41 to the Eagles 4
Rams7Eagles3
Field goal11 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Rams 20
Rams13Eagles3
Rams14Eagles3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Eagles 5
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Eagles 38
The period ended4 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 45
2nd quarter44 plays
Rams20Eagles3
Rams21Eagles3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Eagles 49 to the Eagles 3
Rams21Eagles9
Touchdown14 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Rams 1
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 23 to the Eagles 30
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 38
Rams21Eagles15
Rams21Eagles16
Touchdown4 plays, from the Rams 11 to the Rams 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted12 plays, from the Eagles 14 to the Rams 21
Rams24Eagles16
Field goal17 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Eagles 2
The period ended7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Rams 35
4th quarter51 plays
Rams24Eagles19
Field goal8 plays, from the Rams 31 to the Rams 15
Rams30Eagles19
Rams31Eagles19
Touchdown6 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Eagles 28
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Eagles 12 to the Rams 36
Rams37Eagles19
Touchdown13 plays, from the Rams 36 to the Eagles 2
Intercepted3 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 36
The period ended9 plays, from the Eagles 42 to the Eagles 29
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
