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Minnesota Vikings 11 at Indianapolis Colts 28. Final.
Colts -3.5 ✓U 49 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 2
Indianapolis Colts 28, Vikings 11 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 15:00, 2nd and 8, on Eric Wilson — 11.1 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 15:00 · 2nd and 8
Eric Wilson
Vikings
(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right intended for 81-M.Alie-Cox INTERCEPTED by 50-E.Wilson (22-H.Smith) at MIN 5. 50-E.Wilson to MIN 5 for no gain (81-M.Alie-Cox, 11-M.Pittman).
Dome
Colts closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Indianapolis Colts 28–11 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, Vikings +11.1% win probability on one snap.
11.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kirk CousinsVikingsQ1 11:46(11:46) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 84-I.Smith (23-K.Moore). PENALTY on IND-96-D.Autry, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at IND 42 - No Play.
7.4pts
Jonathan TaylorColtsQ2 11:51(11:51) (No Huddle) 28-J.Taylor left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.7pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Colts won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Colts won this one — +0.11 expected points per dropback, against Vikings at -0.47 expected points per dropback.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Colts won this one — 1 giveaway, against Vikings at 3 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Colts won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.28 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Vikings155 of 163 plays carry both curves
(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right intended for 81-M.Alie-Cox INTERCEPTED by 50-E.Wilson (22-H.Smith) at MIN 5. 50-E.Wilson to MIN 5 for no gain (81-M.Alie-Cox, 11-M.Pittman).
Swing −11.1 for ColtsExpected points −4.42 for ColtsThe model had Vikings 3 points higher than the market did.play 37
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 15:00MIN +11% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right intended for 81-M.Alie-Cox INTERCEPTED by 50-E.Wilson (22-H.Smith) at MIN 5. 50-E.Wilson to MIN 5 for no gain (81-M.Alie-Cox, 11-M.Pittman).
2nd · 11:51IND +9% win prob(11:51) (No Huddle) 28-J.Taylor left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:46IND +7% win prob(11:46) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 84-I.Smith (23-K.Moore). PENALTY on IND-96-D.Autry, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at IND 42 - No Play.
1st · 5:43IND +5% win prob(5:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to MIN 41 for 3 yards (50-E.Wilson).
3rd · 11:04MIN +4% win prob(11:04) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 81-O.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at MIN 38. 23-K.Moore to MIN 22 for 16 yards (73-D.Samia).
1st · 11:05IND +4% win prob(11:05) (Run formation) 33-D.Cook right tackle to IND 8 for 16 yards (29-M.Hooker).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jonathan Taylor's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 11:51 left in the 2nd put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:05Dan Bailey·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap A.Cutting+33–0
2nd11:51Jonathan Taylor·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+73–7
2nd5:01DeForest Buckner·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+23–9
2nd1:13Rodrigo Blankenship·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+33–12
2nd0:28Rodrigo Blankenship·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+33–15
3rd9:30Rodrigo Blankenship·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+33–18
4th14:04Zach Pascal·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers+73–25
4th8:52Rodrigo Blankenship·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+33–28
Colts ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.28Vikings: −0.28 expected points added per play
+0.07Colts: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.47Vikings: −0.47 expected points added per play
+0.11Colts: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Vikings: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.04Colts: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 47 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Colts’s 64 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 2, Colts 7.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
IND's early-down pass rate turned over: 66.7% in week 1 against 37.7% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · −0.1 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Colts21.4%
leaned — got home · +9.1 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.47× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteIND's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 21.4%, 9.1 points above their season mean of 12.4% and 1.5 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Rivers pass−14% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right intended for 81-M.Alie-Cox INTERCEPTED by 50-E.Wilson (22-H.Smith) at MIN 5. 50-E.Wilson to MIN 5 for no gain (81-M.Alie-Cox, 11-M.Pittman).
Q2 15:00 · Colts · 2nd & 8 at MIN 11 · gained nothing · -4.42 EP · −13.9% win probability
153 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 75 yards from the MIN 22 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
43%
Yards
531
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.1760%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24-0.1071%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.147%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.9364%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.5417%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.6140%
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Vikings3Colts0
Field goal15 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Colts 3
The period ended20 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Vikings 13
2nd quarter55 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 5 to the Vikings 10
Vikings3Colts6
Vikings3Colts7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Vikings 35 to the Vikings 5
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 22
Punt8 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Vikings 41
Vikings3Colts9
Drive ended4 plays, from the Vikings 2 to the Vikings 5
Vikings3Colts12
Field goal9 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Vikings 10
Intercepted5 plays
Vikings3Colts15
Field goal7 plays, from the Vikings 29 to the Vikings 20
Intercepted5 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Colts 48
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 49
Intercepted2 plays
Vikings3Colts18
Field goal4 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Vikings 20
Punt11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Colts 40
The period ended11 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Vikings 24
4th quarter36 plays
Vikings3Colts24
Vikings3Colts25
Touchdown4 plays, from the Vikings 19 to the Vikings 2
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 27 to the Vikings 30
Vikings3Colts28
Field goal6 plays, from the Colts 38 to the Vikings 26
Vikings9Colts28
Vikings11Colts28
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Colts 3
The period ended10 plays, from the Vikings 44 to the Vikings 20
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Colts -3.5
Closing total
49
Vikings moneyline
+158
Colts moneyline
-176
Colts closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 49; the game landed 39 — under by 10.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Vikings 7 days · Colts 7 days
Coaches
Mike Zimmer vs Frank Reich
1st · 3:50IND +4% win prob(3:50) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to MIN 28 for 7 yards (20-J.Gladney, 50-E.Wilson).
1st · 0:49IND +4% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 28-J.Taylor to MIN 13 for 5 yards (55-A.Barr, 22-H.Smith). PENALTY on MIN-20-J.Gladney, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 18 - No Play.
Vikingscategory by categoryColts
Vikings3
Colts0
