2020 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 2020 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Minnesota Vikings

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

IND -3.5 ✓U 49 ✓DomeColts closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Indianapolis Colts 28–11 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, MIN +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 15:00MIN — IND IND ball · 2nd & 8IND 65%

(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right intended for 81-M.Alie-Cox INTERCEPTED by 50-E.Wilson (22-H.Smith) at MIN 5. 50-E.Wilson to MIN 5 for no gain (81-M.Alie-Cox, 11-M.Pittman).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 15:00MIN +11% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right intended for 81-M.Alie-Cox INTERCEPTED by 50-E.Wilson (22-H.Smith) at MIN 5. 50-E.Wilson to MIN 5 for no gain (81-M.Alie-Cox, 11-M.Pittman).
Q2 · 11:51IND +9% win prob(11:51) (No Huddle) 28-J.Taylor left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 11:46IND +7% win prob(11:46) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 84-I.Smith (23-K.Moore). PENALTY on IND-96-D.Autry, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at IND 42 - No Play.
Q1 · 5:43IND +5% win prob(5:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to MIN 41 for 3 yards (50-E.Wilson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Colts
Offensive plays	47	64
Total yards	177	354 (edge)
Yards per play	3.8	5.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.28	0.07 (edge)
Success rate	32%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	42%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.47	0.11 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02	0.04 (edge)
Third downs	2/9	3/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	9	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.28.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Philip RiversQB

19/25, 214 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

2.9 expected points added · +7.6% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

11/26, 113 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-13.0 expected points added · -16.5% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

26 att, 101 yds, 1 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

14 att, 63 yds, 1 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Mo Alie-CoxTE

5/6 for 111 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

3/3 for 44 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 22	14	60	5:59	Turnover on downs
2	IND	IND 22	17	67	9:08	Interception
3	MIN	MIN 5	4	5	1:39	Punt
4	IND	MIN 35	5	35	1:29	Touchdown
5	MIN	MIN 20	5	12	2:49	Punt
6	IND	IND 24	7	30	2:57	Punt
7	MIN	MIN 2	3	-2	1:05	Turnover on downs
8	IND	IND 32	9	58	3:44	Turnover on downs
9	MIN	MIN 25	4	0	0:25	Interception
10	IND	MIN 29	4	9	0:21	Turnover on downs
11	MIN	MIN 30	5	22	0:24	Interception
12	IND	IND 25	7	13	3:52	Punt
13	MIN	MIN 24	2	0	0:15	Interception
14	IND	MIN 22	4	2	1:26	Turnover on downs
15	MIN	MIN 25	8	14	4:02	Punt
16	IND	IND 35	11	80	6:25	Touchdown
17	MIN	MIN 27	5	3	1:30	Punt
18	IND	IND 38	6	36	3:43	Turnover on downs
19	MIN	MIN 25	10	63	3:27	Touchdown
20	IND	MIN 44	9	24	5:20	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 80 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	11/26	113	0	3	3	-13.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dalvin Cook	14	63	4.5	1	1.4
Alexander Mattison	3	13	4.3	0	-1.8
C.J. Ham	1	4	4.0	0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	3	3	44	13%	2.3
Adam Thielen	3	8	31	35%	-3.8
Olabisi Johnson	1	3	24	13%	-3.1
Dalvin Cook	2	2	8	9%	-0.2
Alexander Mattison	1	2	3	9%	-0.4
Irv Smith	1	4	3	17%	-1.1
Kyle Rudolph	0	1	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Eric Kendricks	8	1	0.0	0	0
Eric Wilson	5	3	0.0	1	1
Holton Hill	6	0	1.0	0	0
Anthony Harris	3	3	0.0	0	0
Jalyn Holmes	3	2	0.0	0	1
Harrison Smith	4	1	0.0	0	1
Jaleel Johnson	2	2	0.0	0	0
Mike Hughes	3	1	0.0	0	0
Ifeadi Odenigbo	1	2	0.0	0	0
Armon Watts	2	0	0.0	0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	19/25	214	1	1	2	2.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	26	101	3.9	1	0.5
Jordan Wilkins	9	40	4.4	0	0.5
Parris Campbell	1	7	7.0	0	0.8
Philip Rivers	4	3	0.8	0	-4.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mo Alie-Cox	5	6	111	0	24%	4.9
Michael Pittman	4	6	37	0	24%	1.2
T.Y. Hilton	3	5	28	0	20%	-0.9
Zach Pascal	3	4	19	1	16%	0.1
Jonathan Taylor	2	2	9	0	8%	0.0
Ashton Dulin	1	1	6	0	4%	0.5
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	1	4	0	4%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shaquille Leonard	5	1	0.0	0	1
Kenny Moore	3	1	0.0	1	2
DeForest Buckner	1	2	1.5	0	0
Taylor Stallworth	2	0	0.0	0	0
Tyquan Lewis	1	1	1.0	0	0
Ben Banogu	1	1	0.0	0	0
Bobby Okereke	1	1	0.0	0	0
Julian Blackmon	2	0	0.0	0	2
Justin Houston	1	1	0.5	0	0
T.J. Carrie	2	0	0.0	1	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -3.5
Closing total: 49
MIN moneyline: +158
IND moneyline: -176

Colts closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 49; the game landed 39 — under by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: MIN 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Mike Zimmer vs Frank Reich