For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
New England Patriots 30 at Seattle Seahawks 35. Final.
Seahawks -4 ✓O 45 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 2
Seattle Seahawks 35, Patriots 30 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:03, 1st and 1, on Cam Newton — 53.6 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 1st and 1
Cam Newton
Seahawks
(:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left tackle to SEA 2 for -1 yards (91-L.Collier).
Seahawks closed -4 and covered, winning by 5.
Seattle Seahawks 35–30. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, Seahawks +53.6% win probability on one snap.
53.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Devin McCourtyPatriotsQ1 13:48(13:48) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 88-G.Olsen INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty at SEA 43. 32-D.McCourty for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21.9pts
N'Keal HarryPatriotsQ4 0:09(:09) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 15-N.Harry to SEA 1 for 12 yards (22-Q.Dunbar).
19.9pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — -0.02 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.39 expected points per carry.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 49% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 12 on third down, against Seahawks at 3 of 7 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Seahawks at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Patriots168 of 180 plays carry both curves
(:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left tackle to SEA 2 for -1 yards (91-L.Collier).
Swing +53.6 for SeahawksExpected points +3.73 for SeahawksModel and market agree here.play 179
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03NE +54% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left tackle to SEA 2 for -1 yards (91-L.Collier).
1st · 13:48NE +22% win prob(13:48) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 88-G.Olsen INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty at SEA 43. 32-D.McCourty for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:09SEA +20% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 15-N.Harry to SEA 1 for 12 yards (22-Q.Dunbar).
3rd · 7:12SEA +14% win prob(7:12) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 83-D.Moore for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-L.Guy]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
2nd · 7:06SEA +13% win prob(7:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-C.Winovich].
4th · 0:49SEA +10% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton scrambles left tackle to SEA 36 for 12 yards (28-U.Amadi).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
David Moore's 38-yard touchdown catch with 7:12 left in the 3rd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Patriots ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.19Patriots: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.22Seahawks: +0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.48Patriots: +0.48 expected points added per play
+0.40Seahawks: +0.40 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.39Patriots: −0.39 expected points added per play
−0.02Seahawks: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 70 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 60 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 5, Seahawks 5.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's early-down pass rate turned over: 39.2% in week 1 against 69.6% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points.
NE's pass rate over expected turned over: −18.5 pts in week 1 against +1.3 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 22 pts
leaned — got home · +8.4 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Seahawks10.6%
inside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.77× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 69.6%, 21.3 points above their season mean of 48.3% and 1.9 times their own 11.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Newton left−52% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left tackle to SEA 2 for -1 yards (91-L.Collier).
Q4 0:03 · Patriots · 1st & goal at SEA 1 · lost 1 · -3.73 EP · −51.8% win probability
166 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 79 yards from the NE 19 for a end of half. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
48%
Yards
893
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.3477%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.3650%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.1150%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.0838%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR5-0.0520%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Patriots6Seahawks0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 38
Patriots7Seahawks0
Patriots7Seahawks6
Patriots7Seahawks7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Patriots 4
The period ended12 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Seahawks 8
2nd quarter47 plays
Patriots13Seahawks7
Patriots14Seahawks7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Seahawks 6 to the Seahawks 1
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 43 to the Patriots 40
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 9 to the Patriots 18
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Patriots14Seahawks13
Patriots14Seahawks14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 46
No good9 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Seahawks 31
Punt13 plays, from the Seahawks 41 to the Patriots 46
The period ended4 plays, from the Patriots 2 to the Patriots 3
3rd quarter41 plays
Patriots17Seahawks14
Field goal13 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Seahawks 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Patriots17Seahawks20
Patriots17Seahawks21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Patriots 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Patriots 16 to the Patriots 47
Patriots17Seahawks27
Patriots17Seahawks28
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 48 to the Patriots 21
The period ended6 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Seahawks 6
4th quarter57 plays
Patriots23Seahawks28
Touchdown3 plays, from the Seahawks 3 to the Seahawks 1
Punt6 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 7 to the Patriots 35
Patriots23Seahawks34
Patriots23Seahawks35
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Patriots 18
Patriots29Seahawks35
Patriots30Seahawks35
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Seahawks 1
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Seahawks 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldSeven linemen, one back and two tight endsDefense on the fieldFive linemen, three linebackers and three backsIn the boxTen defenders
The period ended15 plays, from the Patriots 19 to the Seahawks 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -4
Closing total
45
Patriots moneyline
+177
Seahawks moneyline
-199
Seahawks closed -4 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 45; the game landed 65 — over by 20.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
CenturyLink Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 69°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the west; overcast.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Patriots 7 days · Seahawks 7 days
Coaches
Bill Belichick vs Pete Carroll
2nd · 3:49
NE +10% win prob
(3:49) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
3rd · 4:36NE +9% win prob(4:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 10-D.Byrd INTERCEPTED by 22-Q.Dunbar at SEA 48. 22-Q.Dunbar to SEA 48 for no gain (10-D.Byrd).
