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New Orleans Saints 24 at Las Vegas Raiders 34. Final.
Saints -4 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 2
Las Vegas Raiders 34, Saints 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:55, 1st and 10, on Nicholas Morrow — 15.8 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:55 · 1st and 10
Nicholas Morrow
Raiders
(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle intended for 11-D.Harris INTERCEPTED by 50-N.Morrow [73-M.Hurst] at NO 46. 50-N.Morrow to NO 40 for 6 yards (17-E.Sanders).
O 47.5 ✓
Dome
Saints closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Las Vegas Raiders 34–24. Biggest swing: Q2 0:55, Raiders +15.8% win probability on one snap.
15.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Darren WallerRaidersQ3 10:03(10:03) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
12.0pts
Unnamed on the sheetSaintsQ4 14:14(14:14) 4-D.Carr FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 41, RECOVERED by NO-26-P.Williams at NO 40.
12.4pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Saints owned this one and still lost it — +0.33 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.16 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 49% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Raiders won this one — +0.34 expected points per dropback, against Saints at +0.10 expected points per dropback.
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Saints170 of 183 plays carry both curves
(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle intended for 11-D.Harris INTERCEPTED by 50-N.Morrow [73-M.Hurst] at NO 46. 50-N.Morrow to NO 40 for 6 yards (17-E.Sanders).
Swing +15.8 for RaidersExpected points +4.07 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 18 points higher than the market did.play 87
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:55NO +16% win prob(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle intended for 11-D.Harris INTERCEPTED by 50-N.Morrow [73-M.Hurst] at NO 46. 50-N.Morrow to NO 40 for 6 yards (17-E.Sanders).
4th · 14:14NO +12% win prob(14:14) 4-D.Carr FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 41, RECOVERED by NO-26-P.Williams at NO 40.
3rd · 10:03LV +12% win prob(10:03) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 13:30LV +7% win prob(13:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 83-D.Waller to NO 38 for 10 yards (26-P.Williams; 20-J.Jenkins).
4th · 7:51LV +7% win prob(7:51) (Shotgun) 30-J.Richard right end for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:49LV +7% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 12-Z.Jones for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 14:16
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Darren Waller's 1-yard touchdown catch with 10:03 left in the 3rd put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:06Wil Lutz·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+33–0
4th1:08Daniel Carlson·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+324–34
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Saintscategory by categoryRaiders
Saints6–1Raiders
424Total yards377
7.4Yards per play5.0
56%Success rate49%
64%Third-down rate59%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
7Explosive plays7
25First downs23
0Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Saints ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Saints: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.12Raiders: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.10Saints: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.34Raiders: +0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.33Saints: +0.33 expected points added per play
−0.16Raiders: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 57 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Raiders’s 76 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Raiders 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.5 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Raiders18.4%
inside their normal wobble · +6.2 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.99× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 9.5%, 7.5 points below their season mean of 17.0% and 1.1 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
71Ryan RamczykT · Every snap100%60 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Every snap100%60 snaps
78Erik McCoyC · Every snap100%60 snaps
9Drew BreesQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
75Andrus PeatT · Full-time98%59 snaps
62Nick EastonG · Full-time92%55 snaps
10Tre'Quan SmithWR · Full-time88%53 snaps
17Emmanuel SandersWR · Heavy rotation78%47 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Heavy rotation68%41 snaps
87Jared CookTE · Heavy rotation65%39 snaps
11Deonte HarrisWR · Heavy rotation52%31 snaps
89Josh HillTE · Rotational37%22 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Rotational27%16 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Situational23%14 snaps
12Marquez CallawayWR · Situational22%13 snaps
82Adam TrautmanTE · Situational13%8 snaps
88Ty MontgomeryRB · Situational10%6 snaps
51Cesar RuizC · Situational10%6 snaps
16Bennie FowlerWR · Situational7%4 snaps
68Derrick KellyT · Situational7%4 snaps
32Michael BurtonFB · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Will ClappCMarcus DavenportDEShy TuttleDTD.J. SwearingerFSChase HansenLBDwayne WashingtonRBMichael ThomasWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Jameis WinstonQB
Las Vegas Raiders
49 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
66Gabe JacksonG · Every snap100%80 snaps
74Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%80 snaps
71Denzelle GoodT · Every snap100%80 snaps
61Rodney HudsonC · Every snap100%80 snaps
4Derek CarrQB · Every snap100%80 snaps
83Darren WallerTE · Full-time93%74 snaps
76John SimpsonOG · Full-time86%69 snaps
28Josh JacobsRB · Heavy rotation66%53 snaps
11Henry Ruggs IIIWR · Heavy rotation61%49 snaps
89Bryan EdwardsWR · Heavy rotation61%49 snaps
13Hunter RenfrowWR · Heavy rotation50%40 snaps
87Foster MoreauTE · Rotational40%32 snaps
82Jason WittenTE · Rotational33%26 snaps
12Zay JonesWR · Situational23%18 snaps
30Jalen RichardRB · Situational21%17 snaps
45Alec IngoldRB · Situational20%16 snaps
15Nelson AgholorWR · Situational19%15 snaps
23Devontae BookerRB · Situational14%11 snaps
64Richie IncognitoG · Situational14%11 snaps
Inactive · 6
Amik RobertsonCBDaniel RossDTNick KwiatkoskiILBSam YoungTTrent BrownTRico GaffordWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Brees pass−15% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle intended for 11-D.Harris INTERCEPTED by 50-N.Morrow [73-M.Hurst] at NO 46. 50-N.Morrow to NO 40 for 6 yards (17-E.Sanders).
Q2 0:55 · Saints · 1st & 10 at NO 38 · gained nothing · -4.07 EP · −15.2% win probability
168 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 89 yards from the LV 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
48%
Yards
801
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.0271%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.2462%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.2447%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR12-0.3133%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.6540%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.0767%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.21100%
Raiders2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter47 plays
Saints3Raiders0
Field goal12 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Raiders 13
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 40
Saints9Raiders0
Saints10Raiders0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 22 to the Raiders 1
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Saints 46
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 25
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
Saints10Raiders6
Saints10Raiders7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 46 to the Saints 3
Saints16Raiders7
Saints17Raiders7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Saints 24 to the Raiders 6
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Saints17Raiders13
Saints17Raiders14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Saints 11
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 38
Saints17Raiders17
Field goal11 plays, from the Saints 40 to the Saints 9
3rd quarter36 plays
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three tight endsDefense on the fieldSix linemen, two linebackers and three backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxTen defendersRushing the passerNinePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Saints17Raiders23
Saints17Raiders24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Saints 1
Punt10 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Raiders 39
The period ended13 plays, from the Raiders 13 to the Saints 44
4th quarter48 plays
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Saints 42 to the Saints 34
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 40 to the Raiders 47
Saints17Raiders30
Saints17Raiders31
Touchdown11 plays, from the Raiders 11 to the Saints 20
Saints23Raiders31
Saints24Raiders31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 33 to the Raiders 3
Saints24Raiders34
Field goal11 plays, from the Raiders 18 to the Saints 36
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Raiders 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -4
Closing total
47.5
Saints moneyline
-201
Raiders moneyline
+180
Saints closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 58 — over by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Saints 8 days · Raiders 8 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Jon Gruden
LV +7% win prob
(14:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 89-B.Edwards (23-M.Lattimore). PENALTY on NO-23-M.Lattimore, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at LV 29 - No Play.
3rd · 12:47LV +7% win prob(12:47) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 87-F.Moreau to NO 7 for 31 yards (43-M.Williams).
Saintscategory by categoryRaiders
Saints3
Raiders0
