2020 Week 2 · Mon, Sep 21, 2020 · Allegiant Stadium

New Orleans Saints

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

NO -4 upsetO 47.5 ✓DomeSaints closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Las Vegas Raiders 34–24. Biggest swing: Q2 0:55, NO +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:55NO — LV NO ball · 1st & 10NO 76%

(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle intended for 11-D.Harris INTERCEPTED by 50-N.Morrow [73-M.Hurst] at NO 46. 50-N.Morrow to NO 40 for 6 yards (17-E.Sanders).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:55NO +16% win prob(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle intended for 11-D.Harris INTERCEPTED by 50-N.Morrow [73-M.Hurst] at NO 46. 50-N.Morrow to NO 40 for 6 yards (17-E.Sanders).
Q4 · 14:14NO +12% win prob(14:14) 4-D.Carr FUMBLES (Aborted) at NO 41, RECOVERED by NO-26-P.Williams at NO 40.
Q3 · 10:03LV +12% win prob(10:03) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 13:30LV +7% win prob(13:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 83-D.Waller to NO 38 for 10 yards (26-P.Williams; 20-J.Jenkins).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Raiders
Offensive plays	57	76
Total yards	424 (edge)	377
Yards per play	7.4 (edge)	5.0
Expected points added / play	0.18 (edge)	0.12
Success rate	56% (edge)	49%
Dropback rate	67%	55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10	0.34 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.33 (edge)	-0.16
Third downs	7/11 (edge)	10/17
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	7
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	23
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

26/38, 312 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

3.8 expected points added · -3.9% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

28/38, 284 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

14.4 expected points added · +8.5% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

27 att, 88 yds, 0 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

13 att, 79 yds, 2 TD

4.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Darren WallerTE

12/16 for 105 yds, 1 TD

47% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

9/9 for 95 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 1.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	12	62	3:59	Turnover on downs
2	LV	LV 25	8	11	3:03	Punt
3	NO	NO 22	10	73	4:07	Touchdown
4	LV	LV 28	7	16	2:41	Punt
5	NO	NO 20	4	5	0:57	Punt
6	LV	LV 37	12	58	6:18	Touchdown
7	NO	NO 24	9	76	3:33	Touchdown
8	LV	LV 25	12	70	3:38	Touchdown
9	NO	NO 25	5	13	0:56	Interception
10	LV	NO 40	8	31	0:48	Turnover on downs
11	LV	LV 25	11	55	5:02	Touchdown
12	NO	NO 25	8	67	4:06	Punt
13	LV	LV 13	12	45	6:46	Fumble
14	NO	NO 40	6	13	1:49	Punt
15	LV	LV 11	11	74	4:34	Touchdown
16	NO	NO 33	10	67	3:10	Touchdown
17	LV	LV 18	8	17	3:28	Turnover on downs
18	NO	NO 25	6	48	1:05	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 76 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	26/38	312	1	1	0	3.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	13	79	6.1	2	4.1
Latavius Murray	3	14	4.7	0	1.7
Deonte Harty	1	11	11.0	0	0.8
Taysom Hill	2	8	4.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Alvin Kamara	9	9	95	0	24%	1.9
Tre'Quan Smith	5	7	86	0	19%	4.9
Ty Montgomery	2	3	25	0	8%	-0.7
Deonte Harty	3	5	23	0	14%	-3.0
Latavius Murray	2	2	19	0	5%	0.3
Emmanuel Sanders	1	3	18	0	8%	-1.0
Adam Trautman	1	1	17	0	3%	1.1
Josh Hill	1	2	16	0	5%	0.4
Jared Cook	2	5	13	1	14%	0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Marcus Williams	7	2	0.0	0
Demario Davis	5	3	0.0	1
Malcolm Jenkins	4	3	1.0	1
P.J. Williams	5	2	0.0	0
Marshon Lattimore	6	1	0.0	0
Trey Hendrickson	5	0	1.0	0
Cameron Jordan	3	2	0.0	0
Janoris Jenkins	3	2	0.0	1
David Onyemata	2	3	1.0	0
Malcolm Roach	2	2	0.0	0

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	28/38	284	3	0	3	14.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Jacobs	27	88	3.3	0	-1.2
Jalen Richard	2	26	13.0	1	4.1
Derek Carr	3	3	1.0	0	-6.5
Devontae Booker	3	-1	-0.3	0	-2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darren Waller	12	16	105	1	47%	6.7
Bryan Edwards	2	2	42	0	6%	4.0
Hunter Renfrow	3	3	37	0	9%	3.0
Foster Moreau	1	1	31	0	3%	1.8
Nelson Agholor	1	1	19	0	3%	1.9
Josh Jacobs	3	3	17	0	9%	-0.1
Zay Jones	1	1	15	1	3%	3.7
Devontae Booker	1	1	6	0	3%	0.3
Alec Ingold	2	2	5	1	6%	0.9
Henry Ruggs	1	3	4	0	9%	-1.0
Jason Witten	1	1	3	0	3%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Damon Arnette	7	0	0	0
Nicholas Morrow	7	0	1	1
Lamarcus Joyner	6	0	0	0
Erik Harris	5	0	0	1
Johnathan Abram	4	0	0	1
Trayvon Mullen	3	0	0	0
Carl Nassib	2	1	0	0
Cory Littleton	2	1	0	0
Maurice Hurst	1	1	0	0
Johnathan Hankins	1	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -4
Closing total: 47.5
NO moneyline: -201
LV moneyline: +180

Saints closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 58 — over by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: NO 8 days · LV 8 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Jon Gruden