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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:37 AM ET · 16 to play
Chicago Bears 17, Giants 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:04, 3rd and 6, on Daniel Jones — 36.2 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:04 · 3rd and 6
Daniel Jones
Bears
(:04) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 15-G.Tate (39-E.Jackson). PENALTY on NYG-15-G.Tate, Offensive Pass Interference, 0 yards, enforced at CHI 10 - No Play.
Bears closed -4.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Chicago Bears 17–13. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, Bears +36.2% win probability on one snap.
36.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Evan EngramGiantsQ4 1:55(1:55) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 88-E.Engram to CHI 38 for 22 yards (24-B.Skrine).
13.7pts
Dion LewisGiantsQ4 0:45(:45) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 33-D.Lewis to CHI 26 for 6 yards (26-D.Bush).
13.6pts
What separated them
Third down
Bears won this one — 9 of 16 on third down, against Giants at 3 of 13 on third down.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Giants owned this one and still lost it — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.14 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bears won this one — +0.10 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.16 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Giants155 of 166 plays carry both curves
(:04) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 15-G.Tate (39-E.Jackson). PENALTY on NYG-15-G.Tate, Offensive Pass Interference, 0 yards, enforced at CHI 10 - No Play.
Swing +36.2 for BearsExpected points +2.56 for BearsThe model had Giants 10 points higher than the market did.play 165
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:04NYG +36% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 15-G.Tate (39-E.Jackson). PENALTY on NYG-15-G.Tate, Offensive Pass Interference, 0 yards, enforced at CHI 10 - No Play.
4th · 1:55CHI +14% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 88-E.Engram to CHI 38 for 22 yards (24-B.Skrine).
4th · 0:45CHI +14% win prob(:45) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 33-D.Lewis to CHI 26 for 6 yards (26-D.Bush).
4th · 2:07NYG +13% win prob(2:07) 2-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
4th · 14:22CHI +8% win prob(14:22) 33-D.Lewis right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:38CHI +8% win prob(7:38) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 32-D.Montgomery for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:19
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
David Montgomery's 28-yard touchdown catch with 7:38 left in the 1st put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
4th7:47Graham Gano·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+313–17
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryBears
Giants3–3Bears
295Total yards304
4.9Yards per play4.8
52%Success rate39%
23%Third-down rate56%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays6
19First downs18
4Sacks taken4
2Turnovers2
The read
Deadlocked at 3–3 categories. Biggest gap to Bears, in third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Giants: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.02Bears: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.16Giants: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.10Bears: +0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.06Giants: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.14Bears: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 60 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Bears’s 64 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Giants 3, Bears 3.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bears11.1%
right on their number · −3.2 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 38.3%, 21.3 points below their season mean of 59.6% and 1.8 times their own 12.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Jones pass−46% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 15-G.Tate (39-E.Jackson). PENALTY on NYG-15-G.Tate, Offensive Pass Interference, 0 yards, enforced at CHI 10 - No Play.
Q4 0:04 · Giants · 3rd & 6 at CHI 10 · gained nothing · -2.56 EP · −45.8% win probability
153 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 95 yards from the NYG 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
42%
Yards
599
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.2176%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24+0.0163%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.1585%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.0831%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9-0.1944%
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR7-0.6857%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.0114%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.5160%
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Bears0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Giants0Bears6
Giants0Bears7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bears 18 to the Giants 28
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Giants 21 to the Giants 26
Giants0Bears10
Field goal4 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 16
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 30
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 8 to the Bears 38
The period ended3 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Giants 41
2nd quarter39 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Giants 41 to the Bears 28
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Bears 45
Punt9 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Giants 48
Giants0Bears16
Giants0Bears17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Giants 15
No good6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Bears 39
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Giants 48
Intercepted2 plays
Giants3Bears17
Field goal4 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 21
Punt12 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Giants 38
The period ended10 plays, from the Giants 5 to the Bears 7
4th quarter54 plays
Giants9Bears17
Giants10Bears17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bears 3 to the Bears 1
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bears 24 to the Bears 44
Giants13Bears17
Field goal11 plays, from the Giants 34 to the Bears 19
No good18 plays, from the Bears 24 to the Giants 31
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
The period ended15 plays, from the Giants 40 to the Bears 10
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bears -4.5
Closing total
42.5
Giants moneyline
+196
Bears moneyline
-222
Bears closed -4.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 30 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 65°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the south-east; clear.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Giants 6 days · Bears 7 days
Coaches
Joe Judge vs Matt Nagy
NYG +7% win prob
(6:19) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 18 for -7 yards (94-R.Quinn). FUMBLES (94-R.Quinn), RECOVERED by CHI-52-K.Mack at NYG 20. 52-K.Mack to NYG 20 for no gain (70-K.Zeitler).
4th · 3:58CHI +7% win prob(3:58) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 70-B.Massie to NYG 32 for 4 yards (95-B.Hill). Ball tipped to 70, 70 is eligible b/c tipped by eligible receiver
