For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on 49ers156 of 163 plays carry both curves
(14:53) 31-R.Mostert right end for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −18.4 for JetsExpected points −6.63 for JetsThe model had Jets 30 points higher than the market did.play 3
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:53NYJ +18% win prob(14:53) 31-R.Mostert right end for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 10:01NYJ +6% win prob(10:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 81-J.Reed for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:45SF +5% win prob(3:45) 36-J.Adams up the middle to SF 20 for no gain (54-F.Warner, 41-E.Moseley).
1st · 14:37NYJ +4% win prob(14:37) 21-F.Gore right guard to NYJ 32 for 5 yards (94-S.Thomas; 91-A.Armstead).
2nd · 15:00SF +4% win prob(15:00) 31-R.Mostert left end to NYJ 46 for -3 yards (95-Q.Williams; 20-M.Maye).
1st · 4:48SF +4% win prob(4:48) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SF 26 for -6 yards (91-A.Armstead). Penalty on NYJ-71-A.Lewis, Offensive Holding, declined.
1st · 11:06SF +3% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Raheem Mostert's 80-yard rushing touchdown with 14:53 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st14:53Raheem Mostert·80-yd TD run80-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
1st3:43Sam Ficken·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+37–3
2nd10:01Jordan Reed·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy Garoppolo+714–3
2nd0:15Jordan Reed·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy Garoppolo+721–3
3rd8:53Robbie Gould·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap K.Nelson+324–3
3rd2:52Sam Ficken·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+324–6
4th1:33Braxton Berrios·30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+731–13
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categoryJets
49ers5–3Jets
361Total yards278
6.3Yards per play4.6
40%Success rate38%
54%Third-down rate36%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
4Explosive plays5
15First downs15
3Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
49ers ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.1849ers: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.20Jets: −0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.2549ers: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.04Jets: −0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.1049ers: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.40Jets: −0.40 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 57 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Jets’s 61 at 56%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Jets 4.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYJ's sack or hit rate, 40.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 2.5 points clear of the next team along.
3.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.4-swing turn from week 1.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
NYJ's early-down pass rate turned over: 67.5% in week 1 against 48.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 10 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Jets40.0%
off script — got home · +26.9 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+3.03× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 40.0%, 26.9 points above their season mean of 13.1% and 3.0 times their own 8.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 6 inactive
69Mike McGlincheyOT · Every snap100%61 snaps
75Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%61 snaps
60Daniel BrunskillOT · Full-time87%53 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Full-time87%53 snaps
63Ben GarlandG · Full-time87%53 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Heavy rotation74%45 snaps
11Brandon AiyukWR · Heavy rotation72%44 snaps
82Ross DwelleyTE · Heavy rotation64%39 snaps
10Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Heavy rotation52%32 snaps
26Tevin ColemanRB · Rotational49%30 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykFB · Rotational48%29 snaps
4Nick MullensQB · Rotational48%29 snaps
15Trent TaylorWR · Rotational46%28 snaps
81Jordan ReedTE · Rotational46%28 snaps
28Jerick McKinnonRB · Situational21%13 snaps
31Raheem MostertRB · Situational21%13 snaps
14Mohamed SanuWR · Situational21%13 snaps
18Dante PettisWR · Situational16%10 snaps
89Charlie WoernerTE · Situational13%8 snaps
67Justin SkuleT · Situational13%8 snaps
68Colton McKivitzOT · Situational13%8 snaps
50Hroniss GrasuC · Situational13%8 snaps
30Jeff WilsonRB · Situational8%5 snaps
Inactive · 6
Jason VerrettCBDee FordDETom ComptonGDemetrius Flannigan-FowlesLBC.J. BeathardQBGeorge KittleTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Mostert right+25% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:53) 31-R.Mostert right end for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 14:53 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at SF 20 · gained 80 · +6.63 EP · +25.2% win probability
154 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 80 yards from the SF 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
40%
Yards
636
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.2756%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.0672%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20+0.3635%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.1945%
Jets0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR6+0.5483%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.3950%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.6433%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
49ers6Jets0
49ers7Jets0
Touchdown3 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Jets 48
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 24
49ers7Jets3
Field goal13 plays, from the Jets 39 to the 49ers 18
The period ended8 plays, from the 49ers 33 to the Jets 49
2nd quarter42 plays
49ers13Jets3
49ers14Jets3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 43 to the Jets 16
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Jets 25 to the 49ers 20
49ers20Jets3
49ers21Jets3
Touchdown18 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the Jets 4
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 16 to the Jets 24
49ers24Jets3
Field goal9 plays, from the 49ers 32 to the Jets 28
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 44
Intercepted5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 39
49ers24Jets6
Field goal5 plays, from the 49ers 22 to the 49ers 7
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 29 to the 49ers 38
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 38
49ers30Jets6
49ers31Jets6
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 23 to the Jets 16
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Jets 36 to the 49ers 42
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 42 to the 49ers 44
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 10 to the Jets 20
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 38 to the 49ers 41
49ers31Jets12
49ers31Jets13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 20 to the 49ers 30
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -7
Closing total
41.5
49ers moneyline
-301
Jets moneyline
+259
49ers closed -7 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 44 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 61°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the north-east; mainly clear.
Referee
Ronald Torbert
Rest
49ers 7 days · Jets 7 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Adam Gase
(11:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 14 for -8 yards (95-Q.Williams).
1st · 5:45NYJ +3% win prob(5:45) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 15-C.Hogan to SF 18 for 8 yards (20-J.Ward). SF-94-S.Thomas was injured during the play.
