2020 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20, 2020 · MetLife Stadium

San Francisco 49ersWinner

New York Jets

SF -7 ✓O 41.5 ✓49ers closed -7 and covered, winning by 18.

San Francisco 49ers 31–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:53, NYJ +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 14:53SF — NYJ SF ball · 1st & 10SF 72%

(14:53) 31-R.Mostert right end for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 14:53NYJ +18% win prob(14:53) 31-R.Mostert right end for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 10:01NYJ +6% win prob(10:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 81-J.Reed for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 3:45SF +5% win prob(3:45) 36-J.Adams up the middle to SF 20 for no gain (54-F.Warner, 41-E.Moseley).
Q1 · 14:37NYJ +4% win prob(14:37) 21-F.Gore right guard to NYJ 32 for 5 yards (94-S.Thomas; 91-A.Armstead).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Jets
Offensive plays	57	61
Total yards	361 (edge)	278
Yards per play	6.3 (edge)	4.6
Expected points added / play	0.18 (edge)	-0.20
Success rate	40% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	53%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.25 (edge)	-0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10 (edge)	-0.40
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	15
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

21/32, 179 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-2.7 expected points added · -4.5% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

14/16, 131 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

14.4 expected points added · +24.7% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Raheem MostertRB

8 att, 92 yds, 1 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Frank GoreRB

21 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

-7.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Chris HoganWR

6/8 for 75 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Kendrick BourneWR

4/5 for 67 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 5.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 20	3	80	0:17	Touchdown
2	NYJ	NYJ 27	8	21	2:19	Punt
3	SF	SF 20	4	-6	2:02	Punt
4	NYJ	NYJ 39	13	38	6:43	Turnover on downs
5	SF	SF 33	16	77	8:44	Touchdown
6	NYJ	NYJ 25	12	55	6:14	Turnover on downs
7	SF	SF 20	14	65	3:30	Touchdown
8	NYJ	NYJ 25	2	0	0:11	End of half
9	NYJ	NYJ 16	5	8	1:56	Punt
10	SF	SF 32	7	55	4:15	Turnover on downs
11	NYJ	NYJ 25	6	19	1:11	Punt
12	SF	SF 25	5	14	2:59	Interception
13	NYJ	SF 22	5	15	1:50	Turnover on downs
14	SF	SF 29	5	9	2:23	Punt
15	NYJ	NYJ 15	6	23	1:51	Punt
16	SF	SF 23	7	62	3:12	Touchdown
17	NYJ	NYJ 36	6	2	1:33	Turnover on downs
18	SF	SF 42	4	2	1:43	Punt
19	NYJ	NYJ 10	5	16	2:15	Punt
20	SF	SF 38	4	3	1:45	Punt
21	NYJ	NYJ 20	8	81	1:44	Touchdown
22	SF	SF 25	3	0	1:23	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 81 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	14/16	131	2	0	1	14.4
Nick Mullens	8/11	71	0	1	2	-6.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Raheem Mostert	8	92	11.5	1	3.2
Jerick McKinnon	3	77	25.7	1	7.6
Tevin Coleman	14	12	0.9	0	-7.0
Jeffery Wilson	2	3	1.5	0	-0.9
Nick Mullens	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kendrick Bourne	4	5	67	0	19%	5.8
Jordan Reed	7	8	50	2	30%	6.9
Tevin Coleman	2	2	28	0	7%	3.1
Brandon Aiyuk	2	3	21	0	11%	1.4
Raheem Mostert	2	2	15	0	7%	1.3
Trent Taylor	2	3	10	0	11%	-2.1
Kyle Juszczyk	2	2	6	0	7%	1.2
Ross Dwelley	1	1	5	0	4%	-0.1
Jerick McKinnon	0	1	0	0	4%	-5.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Fred Warner	8	3	0.0	0
Kerry Hyder	2	6	0.0	0
Jimmie Ward	4	3	0.0	0
Kwon Alexander	3	2	0.0	0
Ahkello Witherspoon	3	2	0.0	0
Jaquiski Tartt	4	1	0.0	0
Arik Armstead	1	2	1.0	1
D.J. Jones	2	0	0.0	0
Emmanuel Moseley	1	1	0.0	2
Tarvarius Moore	2	0	0.0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	21/32	179	1	0	1	-2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Frank Gore	21	63	3.0	-7.9
La'Mical Perine	3	17	5.7	-0.2
Josh Malone	1	12	12.0	0.5
Sam Darnold	2	7	3.5	1.5
Kalen Ballage	1	5	5.0	0.2
Josh Adams	1	0	0.0	-3.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Hogan	6	8	75	0	25%	4.3
Braxton Berrios	6	8	59	1	25%	1.1
Josh Malone	4	6	16	0	19%	-4.1
Kalen Ballage	2	2	12	0	6%	-0.4
Breshad Perriman	2	2	12	0	6%	1.4
Christopher Herndon	1	4	5	0	13%	-2.5
Frank Gore	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Marcus Maye	3	4	0.0	1
Quinnen Williams	4	3	2.0	0
Brian Poole	6	0	0.0	1
Neville Hewitt	6	0	0.0	0
Bradley McDougald	4	1	0.0	0
Jordan Jenkins	2	2	1.0	0
Steve McLendon	2	2	0.0	0
Kyle Phillips	2	1	0.0	0
Avery Williamson	2	1	0.0	0
Blessuan Austin	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -7
Closing total: 41.5
SF moneyline: -301
NYJ moneyline: +259

49ers closed -7 and covered, winning by 18.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 44 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 61°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Ronald Torbert
Rest: SF 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Adam Gase