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Washington Commanders 15 at Arizona Cardinals 30. Final.
Cardinals -7.5 ✓U 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 2
Arizona Cardinals 30, Commanders 15 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 4:22, 1st and 9, on Dwayne Haskins — 11.0 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:22 · 1st and 9
Dwayne Haskins
Cardinals
(4:22) 7-D.Haskins sacked at ARI 15 for -6 yards (97-J.Phillips). FUMBLES (97-J.Phillips), RECOVERED by ARI-55-C.Jones at ARI 12. 55-C.Jones to ARI 12 for no gain (76-M.Moses).
Dome
Cardinals closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 15.
Arizona Cardinals 30–15. Biggest swing: Q1 4:22, Cardinals +11.0% win probability on one snap.
11.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Landon CollinsCommandersQ1 5:39(5:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 17-A.Isabella INTERCEPTED by 26-L.Collins at ARI 20. 26-L.Collins to ARI 19 for 1 yard (10-D.Hopkins).
8.9pts
Unnamed on the sheetCardinalsQ1 3:00(3:00) 4-A.Lee punts 57 yards to WAS 28, Center-46-A.Brewer. 15-S.Sims to WAS 40 for 12 yards (81-D.Daniels). FUMBLES (81-D.Daniels), RECOVERED by ARI-46-A.Brewer at WAS 40. 46-A.Brewer to WAS 40 for no gain (25-F.Moreau).
4.4pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.08 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.21 expected points per dropback.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.07 expected points per snap.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Cardinals won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Commanders at 7 chunk plays.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Commanders178 of 186 plays carry both curves
(4:22) 7-D.Haskins sacked at ARI 15 for -6 yards (97-J.Phillips). FUMBLES (97-J.Phillips), RECOVERED by ARI-55-C.Jones at ARI 12. 55-C.Jones to ARI 12 for no gain (76-M.Moses).
Swing +11.0 for CardinalsExpected points +5.92 for CardinalsThe model had Commanders 15 points higher than the market did.play 32
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 4:22WAS +11% win prob(4:22) 7-D.Haskins sacked at ARI 15 for -6 yards (97-J.Phillips). FUMBLES (97-J.Phillips), RECOVERED by ARI-55-C.Jones at ARI 12. 55-C.Jones to ARI 12 for no gain (76-M.Moses).
1st · 5:39WAS +9% win prob(5:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle intended for 17-A.Isabella INTERCEPTED by 26-L.Collins at ARI 20. 26-L.Collins to ARI 19 for 1 yard (10-D.Hopkins).
1st · 3:00ARI +4% win prob(3:00) 4-A.Lee punts 57 yards to WAS 28, Center-46-A.Brewer. 15-S.Sims to WAS 40 for 12 yards (81-D.Daniels). FUMBLES (81-D.Daniels), RECOVERED by ARI-46-A.Brewer at WAS 40. 46-A.Brewer to WAS 40 for no gain (25-F.Moreau).
1st · 13:48WAS +4% win prob(13:48) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass incomplete deep right to 82-L.Thomas.
1st · 10:47ARI +4% win prob(10:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to WAS 8 for 12 yards (30-T.Apke; 93-J.Allen).
1st · 11:33WAS +3% win prob(11:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 13-C.Kirk to WAS 15 for 4 yards (99-C.Young). PENALTY on ARI-68-K.Beachum, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 19 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
DeAndre Hopkins's 4-yard touchdown catch with 9:14 left in the 1st put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
4th6:44Antonio Gibson·11-yd TD run11-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+615–27
4th0:30Zane Gonzalez·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+315–30
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryCardinals
Commanders1–7Cardinals
316Total yards438
5.1Yards per play6.0
45%Success rate40%
33%Third-down rate41%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays9
19First downs21
4Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Cardinals ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Commanders: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.11Cardinals: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.21Commanders: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.08Cardinals: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.17Commanders: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.16Cardinals: +0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 62 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 73 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 4, Cardinals 5.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's sack or hit rate turned over: 26.0% in week 1 against 7.0% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.8 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−1.04× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Cardinals23.1%
inside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.99× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 7.8 pts, 9.3 points above their season mean of -1.5 pts and 1.5 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Haskins sacked−14% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:22) 7-D.Haskins sacked at ARI 15 for -6 yards (97-J.Phillips). FUMBLES (97-J.Phillips), RECOVERED by ARI-55-C.Jones at ARI 12. 55-C.Jones to ARI 12 for no gain (76-M.Moses).
Q1 4:22 · Commanders · 1st & goal at ARI 9 · lost 3 · -5.92 EP · −13.6% win probability
176 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 78 yards from the WAS 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
40%
Yards
754
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.0667%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.0762%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.1552%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.4064%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR6+0.3967%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.3520%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cardinals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 8 to the Commanders 12
Commanders0Cardinals6
Commanders0Cardinals7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Commanders 48 to the Commanders 4
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 39
Intercepted3 plays, from the Cardinals 9 to the Cardinals 11
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSeven
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Cardinals 19 to the Cardinals 9
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 12 to the Cardinals 15
Commanders0Cardinals13
Commanders0Cardinals14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Commanders 14
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 17 to the Commanders 26
Commanders0Cardinals17
Field goal6 plays, from the Cardinals 23 to the Commanders 19
Punt13 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Cardinals 33
Commanders0Cardinals20
Field goal12 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Commanders 15
Punt11 plays, from the Commanders 16 to the Commanders 40
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 34
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 15 to the Commanders 44
Punt10 plays, from the Cardinals 18 to the Cardinals 30
Commanders3Cardinals20
Field goal11 plays, from the Commanders 43 to the Cardinals 3
The period ended13 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Commanders 17
4th quarter48 plays
Commanders3Cardinals26
Commanders3Cardinals27
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 12 to the Commanders 11
Commanders9Cardinals27
Touchdown8 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Cardinals 24
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 40
Commanders15Cardinals27
Touchdown12 plays, from the Commanders 22 to the Cardinals 11
Commanders15Cardinals30
Field goal14 plays, from the Cardinals 16 to the Commanders 10
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cardinals -7.5
Closing total
46.5
Commanders moneyline
+268
Cardinals moneyline
-313
Cardinals closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 15.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 45 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Commanders 7 days · Cardinals 7 days
Coaches
Ron Rivera vs Kliff Kingsbury
1st · 13:43ARI +3% win prob(13:43) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to ARI 38, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 42 for 4 yards (89-C.Sims). PENALTY on WAS-47-K.Hudson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 42.
1st · 13:31ARI +3% win prob(13:31) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald to WAS 44 for 4 yards (54-K.Pierre-Louis; 53-J.Bostic).
Commanderscategory by categoryCardinals
Commanders0
Cardinals6
