2020 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 2020 · SoFi Stadium

Carolina PanthersWinner

Los Angeles Chargers

LAC -6 upsetU 43.5 ✓DomeChargers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Carolina Panthers 21–16. Biggest swing: Q2 0:22, CAR +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:22CAR — LAC LAC ball · 1st & 10CAR 64%

(:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at CAR 26. 26-D.Jackson to LAC 8 for 66 yards (10-J.Herbert).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:22CAR +19% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at CAR 26. 26-D.Jackson to LAC 8 for 66 yards (10-J.Herbert).
Q2 · 0:03CAR +15% win prob(:03) 4-J.Slye 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.
Q1 · 7:52CAR +14% win prob(7:52) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 36 for -8 yards (53-B.Burns). FUMBLES (53-B.Burns) [53-B.Burns], RECOVERED by CAR-52-T.Whitehead at LAC 45. 52-T.Whitehead to LAC 35 for 10 yards (86-H.Henry).
Q4 · 0:06CAR +14% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen to CAR 14 for 14 yards [91-S.Weatherly]. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by CAR-94-E.Obada at CAR 19. 94-E.Obada to CAR 19 for no gain (30-A.Ekeler).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Chargers
Offensive plays	51	74
Total yards	302	436 (edge)
Yards per play	5.9 (edge)	5.9
Expected points added / play	-0.10 (edge)	-0.12
Success rate	39%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	61%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.06 (edge)	-0.01
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.36 (edge)	-0.40
Third downs	3/12	10/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	4

Chargers outgained Panthers 436–302 but lost the turnover battle 4–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

35/49, 330 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

0.3 expected points added · +1.4% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Teddy BridgewaterQB

22/28, 235 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.7 expected points added · +5.6% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

12 att, 59 yds, 1 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Mike DavisRB

13 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-5.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

13/19 for 132 yds, 1 TD

40% of team targets · -0.9 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

11/11 for 84 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 25	5	2	0:59	Punt
2	LAC	LAC 25	4	-11	1:34	Punt
3	CAR	LAC 48	6	37	3:07	Turnover on downs
4	LAC	LAC 26	4	18	1:37	Fumble
5	CAR	LAC 35	7	29	3:15	Turnover on downs
6	LAC	LAC 25	12	85	5:14	Touchdown
7	CAR	CAR 29	11	64	6:03	Turnover on downs
8	LAC	LAC 25	4	30	1:15	Fumble
9	CAR	CAR 43	9	52	3:58	Touchdown
10	LAC	LAC 25	9	47	2:50	Interception
11	CAR	LAC 8	2	4	0:08	Turnover on downs
12	LAC	LAC 25	7	16	2:20	Punt
13	CAR	CAR 12	4	9	1:56	Punt
14	LAC	LAC 29	8	49	3:36	Punt
15	CAR	CAR 10	4	8	1:22	Punt
16	LAC	LAC 40	10	47	4:34	Turnover on downs
17	CAR	CAR 25	9	62	5:14	Turnover on downs
18	LAC	LAC 25	18	85	6:25	Touchdown
19	CAR	CAR 25	8	35	2:47	Punt
20	LAC	LAC 1	10	70	1:46	Fumble

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	22/28	235	1	0	2	2.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Mike Davis	13	46	3.5	-5.9
Reggie Bonnafon	2	16	8.0	0.6
Teddy Bridgewater	2	12	6.0	-0.3
Curtis Samuel	4	7	1.8	-2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	2	4	65	0	15%	2.2
Robbie Chosen	5	5	55	0	19%	3.1
Mike Davis	8	9	45	1	33%	0.2
Curtis Samuel	4	4	45	0	15%	2.2
Seth Roberts	2	3	16	0	11%	0.4
Ian Thomas	1	2	9	0	7%	0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jeremy Chinn	6	6	0.0	0
Shaq Thompson	7	4	0.0	2
Juston Burris	6	1	0.0	0
Tahir Whitehead	2	5	0.0	0
Rasul Douglas	1	4	0.0	0
Tre Boston	3	2	0.0	2
Corn Elder	2	2	0.0	0
Derrick Brown	3	1	0.0	0
Brian Burns	2	1	1.0	1
Troy Pride	2	0	0.0	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	35/49	330	1	1	2	0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Austin Ekeler	12	59	4.9	1	-1.2
Joshua Kelley	8	43	5.4	0	-5.4
Justin Herbert	3	15	5.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	13	19	132	1	40%	-0.9
Austin Ekeler	11	11	84	0	23%	3.8
Hunter Henry	5	7	50	0	15%	4.9
Jalen Guyton	2	3	23	0	6%	1.1
Mike Williams	1	1	17	0	2%	1.0
K.J. Hill	1	4	15	0	8%	-1.7
Joshua Kelley	2	2	9	0	4%	-0.5
Virgil Green	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Kyzir White	7	3	0.0
Rayshawn Jenkins	3	6	1.0
Nasir Adderley	6	2	0.0
Michael Davis	5	1	0.0
Kenneth Murray	1	3	0.0
Chris Harris	2	2	0.0
Denzel Perryman	4	0	0.0
Uchenna Nwosu	2	1	0.0
Joey Bosa	2	0	1.0
Justin Herbert	1	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -6
Closing total: 43.5
CAR moneyline: +230
LAC moneyline: -265

Chargers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 37 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: CAR 7 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches: Matt Rhule vs Anthony Lynn