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Carolina Panthers 21 at Los Angeles Chargers 16. Final.
Chargers -6 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 3
Carolina Panthers 21, Chargers 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:22, 1st and 10, on Donte Jackson — 19.0 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:22 · 1st and 10
Donte Jackson
Panthers
(:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at CAR 26. 26-D.Jackson to LAC 8 for 66 yards (10-J.Herbert).
U 43.5 ✓
Dome
Chargers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Carolina Panthers 21–16. Biggest swing: Q2 0:22, Panthers +19.0% win probability on one snap.
19.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Justin HerbertPanthersQ1 7:52(7:52) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 36 for -8 yards (53-B.Burns). FUMBLES (53-B.Burns) [53-B.Burns], RECOVERED by CAR-52-T.Whitehead at LAC 45. 52-T.Whitehead to LAC 35 for 10 yards (86-H.Henry).
14.2pts
Joey SlyeChargersQ2 0:03(:03) 4-J.Slye 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.
14.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — no giveaways, against Chargers at 4 giveaways.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 10 of 15 on third down, against Panthers at 3 of 12 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Panthers at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Panthers161 of 171 plays carry both curves
(:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at CAR 26. 26-D.Jackson to LAC 8 for 66 yards (10-J.Herbert).
Swing −19.0 for ChargersExpected points −5.65 for ChargersThe model had Panthers 8 points higher than the market did.play 78
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:22CAR +19% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at CAR 26. 26-D.Jackson to LAC 8 for 66 yards (10-J.Herbert).
2nd · 0:03CAR +15% win prob(:03) 4-J.Slye 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.
1st · 7:52CAR +14% win prob(7:52) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 36 for -8 yards (53-B.Burns). FUMBLES (53-B.Burns) [53-B.Burns], RECOVERED by CAR-52-T.Whitehead at LAC 45. 52-T.Whitehead to LAC 35 for 10 yards (86-H.Henry).
4th · 0:06CAR +14% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen to CAR 14 for 14 yards [91-S.Weatherly]. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by CAR-94-E.Obada at CAR 19. 94-E.Obada to CAR 19 for no gain (30-A.Ekeler).
4th · 0:36LAC +13% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler pushed ob at LAC 41 for 11 yards (21-J.Chinn). PENALTY on CAR-97-Y.Gross-Matos, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 41.
2nd · 7:05CAR +12% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Joey Slye's 30-yard field goal with 8:15 left in the 2nd put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:25Joey Slye·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder J.Charlton · snap J.Jansen+33–0
1st4:31Joey Slye·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder J.Charlton · snap J.Jansen+36–0
2nd0:03Joey Slye·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder J.Charlton · snap J.Jansen+318–7
3rd1:18Michael Badgley·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap C.Mazza+318–10
4th11:03Joey Slye·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder J.Charlton · snap J.Jansen+321–10
4th4:39Keenan Allen·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Justin Herbertfrom Justin Herbert · two-point no good+621–16
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categoryChargers
Panthers2–6Chargers
302Total yards436
5.9Yards per play5.9
39%Success rate46%
25%Third-down rate67%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays7
12First downs27
2Sacks taken2
0Turnovers4
The read
Chargers ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Panthers: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.12Chargers: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.06Panthers: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.01Chargers: −0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.36Panthers: −0.36 expected points added per play
−0.40Chargers: −0.40 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 51 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Chargers’s 74 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 6, Chargers 3.
NoteChargers outgained Panthers 436-302 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's early-down pass rate turned over: 39.7% in week 2 against 65.5% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
CAR's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.9% in week 2 against 15.1% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Chargers6.5%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.8 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.29× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 6.5%, 7.8 points below their season mean of 14.3% and 1.3 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Herbert pass−24% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen to CAR 14 for 14 yards [91-S.Weatherly]. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by CAR-94-E.Obada at CAR 19. 94-E.Obada to CAR 19 for no gain (30-A.Ekeler).
Q4 0:06 · Chargers · 3rd & 15 at CAR 28 · gained 9 · -2.21 EP · −23.6% win probability
159 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 80 yards from the LAC 1 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
40%
Yards
738
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR64+0.0173%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.0368%
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR10-0.4060%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.9143%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 27
Punt4 plays
Panthers3Chargers0
Field goal6 plays, from the Chargers 48 to the Chargers 11
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Chargers 44
Panthers6Chargers0
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Chargers 6
The period ended10 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Panthers 17
2nd quarter45 plays
Panthers6Chargers6
Panthers6Chargers7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Panthers 18 to the Panthers 12
Panthers9Chargers7
Field goal12 plays, from the Panthers 29 to the Chargers 10
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 39
Panthers15Chargers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Panthers 43 to the Chargers 13
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted12 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Panthers 38
Panthers18Chargers7
Field goal3 plays, from the Chargers 8 to the Chargers 4
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 41
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 12 to the Panthers 21
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 29 to the Panthers 38
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Panthers 18
Panthers18Chargers10
Field goal11 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Panthers 10
The period ended4 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 29
4th quarter51 plays
Panthers21Chargers10
Field goal8 plays, from the Chargers 33 to the Chargers 13
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Panthers21Chargers16
Touchdown20 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Panthers 10
Punt10 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Chargers 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.8 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Fumble lost12 plays, from the Chargers 1 to the Panthers 23
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -6
Closing total
43.5
Panthers moneyline
+230
Chargers moneyline
-265
Chargers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 37 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
Panthers 7 days · Chargers 7 days
Coaches
Matt Rhule vs Anthony Lynn
(7:05) 27-J.Kelley left tackle to CAR 45 for 16 yards (54-S.Thompson; 33-T.Boston). FUMBLES (54-S.Thompson), RECOVERED by CAR-54-S.Thompson at CAR 43. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 4:39LAC +10% win prob(4:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-98-M.Haynes, Defensive Offside, declined.
3rd · 4:18LAC +9% win prob(4:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to CAR 25 for 22 yards (31-J.Burris).
