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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Chicago Bears 30, Falcons 26 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:14, 2nd and 4, on Tashaun Gipson — 36.0 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:14 · 2nd and 4
Tashaun Gipson
Bears
(1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right intended for 18-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 38-Ta.Gipson at CHI 24. 38-Ta.Gipson to CHI 25 for 1 yard. PENALTY on ATL-27-D.Kazee, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 25.
Dome
Falcons closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Chicago Bears 30–26. Biggest swing: Q4 1:14, Bears +36.0% win probability on one snap.
36.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Calvin RidleyFalconsQ1 10:52(10:52) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 18-C.Ridley pushed ob at CHI 1 for 63 yards (39-E.Jackson).
10.4pts
Anthony MillerBearsQ4 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep right to 17-A.Miller for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [43-M.Walker].
29.1pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — +0.21 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.02 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Bears won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Falcons at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bears won this one — +0.04 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.18 expected points per dropback.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bears won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Falcons at 8 chunk plays.
(1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right intended for 18-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 38-Ta.Gipson at CHI 24. 38-Ta.Gipson to CHI 25 for 1 yard. PENALTY on ATL-27-D.Kazee, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforc
Swing −36.0 for FalconsExpected points −4.32 for FalconsThe model had Bears 2 points higher than the market did.play 192
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:14CHI +36% win prob(1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right intended for 18-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 38-Ta.Gipson at CHI 24. 38-Ta.Gipson to CHI 25 for 1 yard. PENALTY on ATL-27-D.Kazee, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 25.
4th · 2:00ATL +29% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep right to 17-A.Miller for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [43-M.Walker].
1st · 10:52ATL +10% win prob(10:52) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 18-C.Ridley pushed ob at CHI 1 for 63 yards (39-E.Jackson).
4th · 4:29ATL +10% win prob(4:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 12-A.Robinson for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-C.Harris].
2nd · 4:48ATL +9% win prob(4:48) (Shotgun) 23-B.Hill left tackle for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:57CHI +9% win prob(10:57) 2-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Anthony Miller's 28-yard touchdown catch with 2:00 left in the 4th put Chicago Bears ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:49Hayden Hurst·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan · kick no good, wide left+60–6
1st2:47Cairo Santos·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+33–6
2nd8:36Younghoe Koo·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+33–9
3rd10:02Younghoe Koo·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+310–26
4th6:24Jimmy Graham·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Folesfrom Nick Foles · two-point no good+616–26
4th4:29Allen Robinson·37-yd TD catch37-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Folesfrom Nick Foles+723–26
4th2:00Anthony Miller·28-yd TD catch28-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Folesfrom Nick FolesLead never changed again+730–26
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryFalcons
Bears4–2Falcons
440Total yards372
5.8Yards per play5.8
45%Success rate39%
29%Third-down rate31%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays8
23First downs19
2Sacks taken2
2Turnovers2
The read
Bears ahead 4–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — first downs.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Bears: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.03Falcons: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.04Bears: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.18Falcons: −0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Bears: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.21Falcons: +0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 76 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Falcons’s 64 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Bears 6, Falcons 5.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's early-down pass rate turned over: 38.3% in week 2 against 66.1% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +3.2 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Falcons16.4%
inside their normal wobble · +3.1 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.54× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 51.7 points below their season mean of 51.7% and 1.7 times their own 31.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ryan pass−33% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right intended for 18-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 38-Ta.Gipson at CHI 24. 38-Ta.Gipson to CHI 25 for 1 yard. PENALTY on ATL-27-D.Kazee, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 25.
Q4 1:14 · Falcons · 2nd & 4 at CHI 44 · gained nothing · -4.32 EP · −33.2% win probability
188 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 199 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 199 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 75 yards from the CHI 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
199 of 199 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
199
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
38%
Yards
808
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.0783%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.1463%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.0957%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.6169%
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR5+0.6840%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bears0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR2——
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR1——
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Bears2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
199 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
199 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
No good10 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Falcons 28
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Bears0Falcons6
Touchdown4 plays, from the Falcons 36 to the Bears 1
Bears3Falcons6
Field goal14 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Falcons 17
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 46
The period ended4 plays, from the Bears 19 to the Bears 22
2nd quarter57 plays
Punt1 play
Bears3Falcons9
Field goal12 plays, from the Falcons 36 to the Bears 4
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 30
Bears3Falcons15
Bears3Falcons16
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 38 to the Bears 35
Bears9Falcons16
Bears10Falcons16
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Falcons 2
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 14 to the Falcons 21
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Bears 43
The period ended8 plays, from the Falcons 14 to the Falcons 38
3rd quarter39 plays
Bears10Falcons22
Bears10Falcons23
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Bears 10
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bears 38 to the Bears 43
Bears10Falcons26
Field goal4 plays, from the Bears 19 to the Bears 18
Intercepted8 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Falcons 21
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Bears 40
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 10 to the Bears 12
The period ended4 plays, from the Falcons 48 to the Bears 45
4th quarter64 plays
No good5 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Bears 26
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Bears 38 to the Falcons 9
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Falcons 22
Bears16Falcons26
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 38 to the Falcons 3
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 15 to the Falcons 16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Bears22Falcons26
Bears23Falcons26
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bears 45 to the Falcons 37
Punt6 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Bears29Falcons26
Bears30Falcons26
Touchdown6 plays, from the Falcons 44 to the Falcons 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Bears 44
The period ended7 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Falcons 49
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Bearscategory by categoryFalcons
Bears0
Falcons6
