2020 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Chicago BearsWinner

Atlanta Falcons

ATL -2.5 upsetO 46 ✓DomeFalcons closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Chicago Bears 30–26. Biggest swing: Q4 1:14, CHI +36% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:14CHI — ATL ATL ball · 2nd & 4CHI 61%

(1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right intended for 18-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 38-Ta.Gipson at CHI 24. 38-Ta.Gipson to CHI 25 for 1 yard. PENALTY on ATL-27-D.Kazee, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforc

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:14CHI +36% win prob(1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right intended for 18-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 38-Ta.Gipson at CHI 24. 38-Ta.Gipson to CHI 25 for 1 yard. PENALTY on ATL-27-D.Kazee, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 25.
Q4 · 2:00ATL +29% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep right to 17-A.Miller for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [43-M.Walker].
Q1 · 10:52ATL +10% win prob(10:52) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 18-C.Ridley pushed ob at CHI 1 for 63 yards (39-E.Jackson).
Q4 · 4:29ATL +10% win prob(4:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 12-A.Robinson for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-C.Harris].

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Falcons
Offensive plays	76	64
Total yards	440 (edge)	372
Yards per play	5.8	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.03 (edge)	-0.03
Success rate	45% (edge)	39%
Dropback rate	72%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	-0.18
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02	0.21 (edge)
Third downs	4/14	4/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	8
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	2	2

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

19/38, 238 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-7.1 expected points added · -11.1% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Nick FolesQB

16/29, 188 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

4.2 expected points added · +1.8% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Todd GurleyRB

14 att, 80 yds, 1 TD

2.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Brian HillRB

9 att, 58 yds, 1 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Allen RobinsonWR

10/13 for 123 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Calvin RidleyWR

5/13 for 110 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · -2.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 25	10	47	4:08	Turnover on downs
2	ATL	ATL 36	4	64	1:09	Touchdown
3	CHI	CHI 25	13	68	7:00	Turnover on downs
4	ATL	ATL 25	6	21	1:54	Punt
5	CHI	CHI 19	4	3	1:00	Punt
6	ATL	ATL 36	12	53	6:18	Turnover on downs
7	CHI	CHI 25	5	-1	2:37	Punt
8	ATL	ATL 38	6	42	1:17	Touchdown
9	CHI	CHI 25	9	80	2:47	Touchdown
10	ATL	ATL 14	5	7	0:40	Punt
11	CHI	CHI 35	4	8	0:24	Punt
12	ATL	ATL 14	5	25	0:46	End of half
13	ATL	ATL 25	9	60	2:26	Touchdown
14	CHI	CHI 38	4	2	1:41	Interception
15	ATL	CHI 19	4	1	0:55	Turnover on downs
16	CHI	CHI 40	8	39	3:35	Defensive touchdown
17	ATL	ATL 20	6	40	2:38	Punt
18	CHI	CHI 10	4	2	1:48	Punt
19	ATL	ATL 48	7	22	3:22	Turnover on downs
20	CHI	CHI 38	9	35	2:49	Turnover on downs
21	ATL	ATL 17	4	5	1:36	Punt
22	CHI	CHI 38	10	52	2:50	Touchdown
23	ATL	ATL 15	5	1	1:00	Punt
24	CHI	CHI 45	4	50	0:59	Touchdown
25	ATL	ATL 25	5	0	0:22	Punt
26	CHI	ATL 44	6	44	2:06	Touchdown
27	ATL	ATL 25	5	31	0:47	Interception
28	CHI	CHI 40	4	11	1:06	End of game

0 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 80 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Foles	16/29	188	3	1	0	4.2
Mitchell Trubisky	13/22	128	1	1	2	-4.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	1	45	45.0	3.2
David Montgomery	14	45	3.2	-3.4
Tarik Cohen	2	21	10.5	1.6
Cordarrelle Patterson	4	13	3.3	0.5
Anthony Miller	1	9	9.0	0.9
Nick Foles	3	-3	-1.0	-2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Robinson	10	13	123	1	27%	3.6
Jimmy Graham	6	10	60	2	20%	0.7
Anthony Miller	2	5	41	1	10%	-0.6
Ted Ginn	1	3	29	0	6%	3.3
Tarik Cohen	3	6	20	0	12%	-1.4
Darnell Mooney	2	5	19	0	10%	-0.9
Demetrius Harris	3	3	15	0	6%	0.3
David Montgomery	2	3	9	0	6%	-0.1
Javon Wims	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Eddie Jackson	5	2	0.0	0	0
Danny Trevathan	4	1	0.0	0	0
Tashaun Gipson	3	2	0.0	1	1
Roquan Smith	3	2	0.0	0	1
Buster Skrine	4	1	0.0	0	0
Khalil Mack	1	4	0.5	0	0
Akiem Hicks	3	1	1.5	0	0
Kyle Fuller	3	0	0.0	0	1
Jaylon Johnson	2	1	0.0	0	0
Brent Urban	1	1	0.0	0	1

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	19/38	238	1	1	2	-7.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Todd Gurley	14	80	5.7	1	2.9
Brian Hill	9	58	6.4	1	1.5
Calvin Ridley	1	7	7.0	0	0.8
Matt Ryan	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Calvin Ridley	5	13	110	0	34%	-2.6
Olamide Zaccheaus	4	6	41	0	16%	0.5
Brandon Powell	3	4	27	0	11%	2.0
Russell Gage	2	3	26	0	8%	0.5
Brian Hill	1	3	22	0	8%	-1.1
Luke Stocker	1	1	6	0	3%	0.2
Keith Smith	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.3
Todd Gurley	1	2	2	0	5%	-0.9
Hayden Hurst	1	3	1	1	8%	-0.9
Ito Smith	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Keanu Neal	5	3	0.0	0	0
Mykal Walker	6	2	0.0	0	0
Isaiah Oliver	6	1	0.0	0	2
Deion Jones	2	4	0.0	0	0
Darqueze Dennard	3	3	0.0	1	2
Marlon Davidson	2	2	0.0	0	0
Grady Jarrett	3	1	1.0	0	0
Damontae Kazee	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jacob Tuioti-Mariner	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -2.5
Closing total: 46
CHI moneyline: +122
ATL moneyline: -135

Falcons closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 56 — over by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: CHI 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Dan Quinn