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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
2020 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 2020 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
BengalsCincinnati23
TIEfinal margin
EaglesPhiladelphia23
Cincinnati Bengals 23 at Philadelphia Eagles 23. Final.
Eagles -5.5 upsetU 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 3
Bengals and Eagles finished level at 23, a tie.
It turned at OT 0:19, 4th and 17 — 94.5 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 0:19 · 4th and 17
Unnamed on the sheet
Eagles
(:19) 1-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to CIN 11, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.
Eagles closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
A 23–23 tie. Biggest swing: OT 0:19, Eagles +94.5% win probability on one snap.
94.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetEaglesOT 3:03(3:03) 1-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to CIN 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.
55.4pts
Unnamed on the sheetBengalsOT 1:49(1:49) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to PHI 44, Center-46-C.Harris. 84-G.Ward pushed ob at PHI 45 for 1 yard (82-C.Carter).
55.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Eagles at 2 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 10 of 21 on third down, against Bengals at 3 of 13 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Bengals at 3 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
3 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Bengals209 of 224 plays carry both curves
(:19) 1-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to CIN 11, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.
Swing +94.5 for EaglesExpected points −0.07 for EaglesModel and market agree here.play 222
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 0:19PHI +94% win prob(:19) 1-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to CIN 11, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.
Overtime · 1:49PHI +56% win prob(1:49) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to PHI 44, Center-46-C.Harris. 84-G.Ward pushed ob at PHI 45 for 1 yard (82-C.Carter).
Overtime · 3:03PHI +55% win prob(3:03) 1-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to CIN 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.
Overtime · 0:13PHI +49% win prob(:13) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle to CIN 20 for 9 yards (55-B.Graham).
Overtime · 5:45PHI +38% win prob(5:45) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to PHI 22, Center-46-C.Harris. 84-G.Ward to PHI 23 for 1 yard (40-B.Wilson).
Overtime · 8:00PHI +26% win prob(8:00) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to PHI 11, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.
Overtime · 7:08
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Neither side got further than 7 clear, and 10 scores later it was still level.
Lead
2nd15:00Jake Elliott·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+30–3
2nd7:38Randy Bullock·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+33–3
2nd2:51Jake Elliott·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+33–6
2nd1:33Tee Higgins·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+710–6
Eagles ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bengals, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.00Bengals: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.04Eagles: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Bengals: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.00Eagles: −0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Bengals: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.11Eagles: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 69 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Eagles’s 86 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 4, Eagles 3.
NoteEagles outgained Bengals 378-305 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 10.0% in week 2 against 32.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
CIN's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 2 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 33.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 27 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Eagles32.7%
leaned — got home · +14.9 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+1.83× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 32.7%, 14.9 points above their season mean of 17.8% and 1.8 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
66Trey HopkinsG · Every snap100%72 snaps
60Mike JordanOG · Every snap100%72 snaps
—Jonah WilliamsOT · Every snap100%72 snaps
68Bobby HartOT · Every snap100%72 snaps
9Joe BurrowQB · Every snap99%71 snaps
89Drew SampleTE · Full-time89%64 snaps
85Tee HigginsWR · Heavy rotation79%57 snaps
18A.J. GreenWR · Heavy rotation76%55 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Heavy rotation75%54 snaps
28Joe MixonHB · Heavy rotation72%52 snaps
53Billy PriceC · Heavy rotation56%40 snaps
74Fred JohnsonG · Rotational44%32 snaps
19Auden TateWR · Rotational35%25 snaps
25Giovani BernardHB · Rotational25%18 snaps
80Mike ThomasWR · Situational22%16 snaps
82Cethan CarterTE · Situational13%9 snaps
12Alex EricksonWR · Situational8%6 snaps
77Hakeem AdenijiOG · Situational3%2 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Situational1%1 snap
86Mason SchreckTE · Situational1%1 snap
5Ryan FinleyQB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Andrew BrownDEGeno AtkinsDTAustin SeibertKMarkus BaileyLBTrayveon WilliamsRBJohn RossWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
C.Johnston punts+94% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:19) 1-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to CIN 11, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.
OT 0:19 · Eagles · 4th & 17 at PHI 49 · gained nothing · -0.07 EP · +94.5% win probability
207 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 224 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 224 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 82 yards from the PHI 9 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
224 of 224 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
224
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
38%
Yards
682
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56+0.0373%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53+0.0964%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR29-0.2552%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bengals0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Eagles0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Bengals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
224 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
224 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Eagles 47
Intercepted6 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Eagles 48
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 44 to the Eagles 48
The period ended16 plays, from the Eagles 9 to the Bengals 3
2nd quarter64 plays
Bengals0Eagles3
Field goal1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 28
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 32 to the Eagles 35
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Eagles 42
Punt4 plays
Bengals3Eagles3
Field goal6 plays, from the Eagles 38 to the Eagles 30
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Bengals3Eagles6
Field goal12 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Bengals 24
Bengals9Eagles6
Bengals10Eagles6
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Eagles 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Bengals10Eagles12
Bengals10Eagles13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Eagles 40 to the Bengals 23
The period ended4 plays, from the Bengals 40 to the Bengals 42
3rd quarter35 plays
Bengals10Eagles16
Field goal12 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Bengals 30
Bengals16Eagles16
Bengals17Eagles16
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bengals 24 to the Eagles 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 28
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 44 to the Eagles 13
4th quarter46 plays
Bengals20Eagles16
Field goal2 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Bengals23Eagles16
Field goal14 plays, from the Bengals 12 to the Eagles 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Bengals23Eagles22
Bengals23Eagles23
Touchdown17 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Bengals 7
The period ended3 plays
Overtime43 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 43
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 11 to the Eagles 13
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 23 to the Bengals 42
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 9 to the Bengals 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Punt11 plays, from the Eagles 45 to the Bengals 41
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsIn the boxThree defenders
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
