2020 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 2020 · Lincoln Financial Field

Cincinnati Bengals

Philadelphia Eagles

PHI -5.5 upsetU 46.5 ✓Eagles closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

A 23–23 tie. Biggest swing: OT 0:19, PHI +94% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 0:19CIN — PHI PHI ball · 4th & 17CIN 96%

(:19) 1-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to CIN 11, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 0:19PHI +94% win prob(:19) 1-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to CIN 11, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.
OT · 1:49PHI +56% win prob(1:49) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to PHI 44, Center-46-C.Harris. 84-G.Ward pushed ob at PHI 45 for 1 yard (82-C.Carter).
OT · 3:03PHI +55% win prob(3:03) 1-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to CIN 9, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.
OT · 0:13PHI +49% win prob(:13) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle to CIN 20 for 9 yards (55-B.Graham).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Eagles
Offensive plays	69	86
Total yards	305	378 (edge)
Yards per play	4.4 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	-0.00 (edge)	-0.04
Success rate	43% (edge)	36%
Dropback rate	75%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	-0.00
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23	-0.11 (edge)
Third downs	3/13	10/21 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	8	3 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Eagles outgained Bengals 378–305 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

31/44, 312 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.8 expected points added · +12.3% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Carson WentzQB

29/47, 225 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-8.4 expected points added · -4.1% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Miles SandersRB

18 att, 95 yds, 0 TD

1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Carson WentzQB

9 att, 65 yds, 1 TD

8.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Tyler BoydWR

10/13 for 125 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 9.7 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

Greg WardWR

8/11 for 72 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 25	8	21	3:55	Punt
2	PHI	PHI 16	6	32	2:35	Interception
3	CIN	CIN 44	4	8	1:34	Punt
4	PHI	PHI 9	16	67	6:59	Turnover on downs
5	CIN	CIN 25	5	3	1:35	Punt
6	PHI	PHI 32	4	-4	1:36	Punt
7	CIN	CIN 29	6	4	1:50	Punt
8	PHI	PHI 19	4	0	1:06	Punt
9	CIN	PHI 38	4	13	1:17	Turnover on downs
10	PHI	PHI 25	11	61	4:46	Turnover on downs
11	CIN	CIN 25	10	56	1:18	Touchdown
12	PHI	PHI 40	7	60	1:13	Touchdown
13	CIN	CIN 40	3	-8	0:16	End of half
14	PHI	PHI 25	11	34	6:21	Turnover on downs
15	CIN	CIN 24	12	71	6:17	Touchdown
16	PHI	PHI 25	4	3	0:37	Interception
17	CIN	PHI 44	7	31	1:53	Turnover on downs
18	PHI	PHI 25	10	22	4:48	Punt
19	CIN	CIN 12	12	82	6:59	Turnover on downs
20	PHI	PHI 25	13	47	2:44	Touchdown
21	CIN	CIN 25	2	0	0:21	Turnover on downs
22	CIN	CIN 25	6	18	2:08	Punt
23	PHI	PHI 11	4	2	0:55	Punt
24	CIN	CIN 41	4	-1	1:25	Punt
25	PHI	PHI 23	6	40	2:36	Punt
26	CIN	CIN 9	5	-2	1:15	Punt
27	PHI	PHI 45	7	14	1:28	Punt
28	CIN	CIN 11	1	9	0:13	End of game

0 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 82 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	31/44	312	2	0	8	3.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	17	49	2.9	0	-3.9
Joe Burrow	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Boyd	10	13	125	0	31%	9.7
Giovani Bernard	3	3	55	0	7%	4.1
Tee Higgins	5	9	40	2	21%	4.1
A.J. Green	5	6	36	0	14%	-0.8
Auden Tate	2	4	29	0	10%	0.5
Joe Mixon	2	3	16	0	7%	0.7
Mike Thomas	2	2	9	0	5%	-0.3
Cethan Carter	1	1	1	0	2%	-0.4
Drew Sample	1	1	1	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Carlos Dunlap	9	0	0.0	0	1
Vonn Bell	3	5	0.0	0	0
Mackensie Alexander	7	1	0.0	0	0
Carl Lawson	4	4	2.0	0	0
Jessie Bates	2	5	0.0	0	1
Josh Bynes	4	3	0.0	0	0
Germaine Pratt	3	3	0.0	0	1
Logan Wilson	5	0	0.0	1	1
William Jackson	4	0	0.0	0	0
Darius Phillips	3	1	0.0	0	1

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	29/47	225	1	2	3	-8.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Miles Sanders	18	95	5.3	0	1.0
Carson Wentz	9	65	7.2	1	8.3
Corey Clement	3	8	2.7	0	-1.0
Jalen Hurts	2	5	2.5	0	-0.0
Boston Scott	3	5	1.7	0	-1.6
Greg Ward	1	-6	-6.0	0	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Greg Ward	8	11	72	1	25%	5.5
Zach Ertz	7	10	70	0	23%	1.0
Deontay Burnett	3	4	19	0	9%	-0.4
John Hightower	2	3	19	0	7%	1.0
Richard Rodgers	2	2	15	0	5%	0.4
Miles Sanders	4	8	12	0	18%	-5.0
DeSean Jackson	2	4	11	0	9%	-4.0
Dallas Goedert	1	1	7	0	2%	0.4
Boston Scott	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nathan Gerry	4	4	0.0	1
Darius Slay	7	0	0.0	1
Avonte Maddox	7	0	0.0	1
Cre'von LeBlanc	5	1	0.0	0
Jalen Mills	3	2	1.5	0
Rodney McLeod	2	3	0.0	0
Derek Barnett	4	0	2.0	0
Brandon Graham	4	0	2.0	0
T.J. Edwards	1	3	0.0	0
Trevor Williams	2	1	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -5.5
Closing total: 46.5
CIN moneyline: +205
PHI moneyline: -233

Eagles closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 46 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 76°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: CIN 10 days · PHI 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Doug Pederson