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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Cowboys199 of 210 plays carry both curves
(2:37) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 88-G.Olsen to DAL 36 for 11 yards (25-X.Woods).
Swing +28.3 for SeahawksExpected points +2.82 for SeahawksThe model had Seahawks 7 points higher than the market did.play 186
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:37SEA +28% win prob(2:37) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 88-G.Olsen to DAL 36 for 11 yards (25-X.Woods).
4th · 1:55SEA +19% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 13:13SEA +17% win prob(13:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 13-M.Gallup for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:45DAL +14% win prob(:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 19-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 26-Sq.Griffin [90-J.Reed] at DAL 38. 26-Sq.Griffin to DAL 34 for 4 yards (88-C.Lamb).
4th · 2:40DAL +11% win prob(2:40) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 14-D.Metcalf.
4th · 4:03SEA +10% win prob(4:03) 2-G.Zuerlein 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
2nd · 6:15
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
DK Metcalf's 29-yard touchdown catch with 1:55 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:14Greg Zuerlein·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+33–0
1st6:46Tyler Lockett·43-yd TD catch43-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+73–7
1st6:38Bryan Mone·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+23–9
1st1:44Ezekiel Elliott·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, hit right upright+69–9
2nd6:56Tyler Lockett·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+79–16
2nd6:15Cedrick Wilson·40-yd TD catch40-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott · kick blocked by T.Flowers+615–16
2nd0:11Tyler Lockett·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+715–23
3rd14:17Jacob Hollister·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+715–30
3rd5:55Cedrick Wilson·42-yd TD catch42-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+722–30
4th13:13Michael Gallup·43-yd TD catch43-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott · two-point no good+628–30
4th4:03Greg Zuerlein·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+331–30
4th1:55DK Metcalf·29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson · two-point goodLead never changed again+831–38
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categorySeahawks
Cowboys7–2Seahawks
523Total yards415
6.5Yards per play5.9
46%Success rate39%
47%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
9Explosive plays8
26First downs21
2Sacks taken4
3Turnovers0
The read
Cowboys ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Seahawks, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Cowboys: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.07Seahawks: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Cowboys: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.13Seahawks: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Cowboys: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.07Seahawks: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 80 snaps at a 79% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 70 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 4, Seahawks 6.
NoteCowboys outgained Seahawks 523-415 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
DAL's pass rate over expected, +14.6 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 1.5 points clear of the next team along.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 2.
79 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DAL's early-down pass rate, 77.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 2.4 points clear of the next team along.
62 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · +3.4 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Seahawks15.9%
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 63 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 14.6 pts, 16.4 points above their season mean of -1.8 pts and 2.2 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass+21% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 1:55 · Seahawks · 3rd & 3 at DAL 29 · gained 29 · +3.92 EP · +21.1% win probability
197 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 210 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 210 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 94 yards from the DAL 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
210 of 210 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
210
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
40%
Yards
936
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57+0.0967%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53+0.2675%
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR13+0.2692%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.0558%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-1.1975%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
210 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
210 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter51 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Cowboys3Seahawks0
Field goal14 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Seahawks 25
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Cowboys3Seahawks6
Cowboys3Seahawks7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cowboys 43
Cowboys3Seahawks9
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 32
Cowboys9Seahawks9
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Seahawks 1
Drive ended4 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 38
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter54 plays
Punt1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Seahawks 36
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 23
Cowboys9Seahawks15
Cowboys9Seahawks16
Touchdown15 plays, from the Seahawks 29 to the Cowboys 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Cowboys15Seahawks16
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Seahawks 40
Punt11 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cowboys 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 25
Drive ended3 plays, from the Cowboys 34 to the Cowboys 25
Cowboys15Seahawks22
Cowboys15Seahawks23
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 17 to the Cowboys 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerEight
Fumble lost2 plays
Cowboys15Seahawks29
Cowboys15Seahawks30
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cowboys 5 to the Cowboys 1
Punt11 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 46
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 17 to the Seahawks 31
Cowboys21Seahawks30
Cowboys22Seahawks30
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cowboys 6 to the Seahawks 42
Punt10 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cowboys 45
The period ended4 plays, from the Cowboys 11 to the Cowboys 33
4th quarter64 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Cowboys28Seahawks30
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cowboys 43 to the Seahawks 43
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Seahawks 47
Cowboys31Seahawks30
Field goal19 plays, from the Cowboys 6 to the Seahawks 21
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.9 seconds
Cowboys31Seahawks36
Touchdown9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cowboys 29
Cowboys31Seahawks38
Intercepted16 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Seahawks 22
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -5.5
Closing total
58
Cowboys moneyline
+208
Seahawks moneyline
-237
Seahawks closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 58; the game landed 69 — over by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
CenturyLink Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 62°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the north; partly cloudy.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Cowboys 7 days · Seahawks 7 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Pete Carroll
SEA +10% win prob
(6:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 11-C.Wilson for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:18SEA +9% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 88-G.Olsen ran ob at DAL 1 for 16 yards. Penalty on DAL-54-J.Smith, Illegal Contact, declined.
