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Detroit Lions 26, Cardinals 23 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:04, 2nd and 13, on Matt Prater — 18.1 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:04 · 2nd and 13
Matt Prater
Lions
(:04) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Dome
Cardinals closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Detroit Lions 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, Lions +18.1% win probability on one snap.
18.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jesse JamesLionsQ2 6:20(6:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 83-J.James for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [42-D.Kennard].
15.3pts
Jeff OkudahLionsQ3 7:51(7:51) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Okudah at DET 42. 30-J.Okudah pushed ob at ARI 22 for 36 yards (64-J.Sweezy).
17.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Lions won this one — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 3 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Lions at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.16 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Lions165 of 175 plays carry both curves
(:04) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Swing −18.1 for CardinalsExpected points −0.38 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 4 points higher than the market did.play 174
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:04ARI +18% win prob(:04) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-3-J.Fox.
3rd · 7:51DET +18% win prob(7:51) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Okudah at DET 42. 30-J.Okudah pushed ob at ARI 22 for 36 yards (64-J.Sweezy).
2nd · 6:20ARI +15% win prob(6:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 83-J.James for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [42-D.Kennard].
2nd · 0:35ARI +14% win prob(:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 19-K.Golladay for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 7:35DET +10% win prob(7:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at ARI 17 for -9 yards (43-H.Reddick).
4th · 1:09ARI +10% win prob(1:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 19-K.Golladay pushed ob at ARI 38 for 11 yards (33-B.Murphy).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Matt Prater's 39-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put Detroit Lions ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:31Matt Prater·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap D.Muhlbach+33–0
4th6:49Matt Prater·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap D.Muhlbach+323–23
4th0:04Matt Prater·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap D.MuhlbachLead never changed again+326–23
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryCardinals
Lions1–8Cardinals
322Total yards377
5.2Yards per play6.0
42%Success rate54%
33%Third-down rate40%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays7
19First downs26
4Sacks taken1
0Turnovers3
The read
Cardinals ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Lions, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Lions: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.00Cardinals: −0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Lions: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.09Cardinals: −0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Lions: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.11Cardinals: +0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 62 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 63 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Lions 6, Cardinals 3.
NoteCardinals outgained Lions 377-322 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's early-down pass rate turned over: 66.7% in week 2 against 44.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
DET's pass rate over expected turned over: +9.7 pts in week 2 against −7.8 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their 9.7%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Cardinals17.1%
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDET's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 44.9%, 14.4 points below their season mean of 59.3% and 1.6 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Matt Prater+22% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q4 0:04 · Lions · 2nd & 13 at ARI 21 · gained nothing · +0.38 EP · +22.4% win probability
163 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 80 yards from the ARI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
47%
Yards
699
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0462%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.0066%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.0140%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.2538%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR10-0.2370%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.6143%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Lions3Cardinals0
Field goal14 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Cardinals 9
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Lions 30
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 32 to the Lions 35
Lions3Cardinals6
Lions3Cardinals7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Lions 10
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 31 to midfield
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Cardinals 20
Lions9Cardinals7
Lions10Cardinals7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to the Cardinals 5
Lions10Cardinals13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 26 to the Lions 1
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Lions16Cardinals13
Lions17Cardinals13
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Cardinals 15
The period ended5 plays, from the Cardinals 21 to the Cardinals 31
3rd quarter44 plays
Lions17Cardinals16
Field goal10 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Lions 31
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.0 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Cardinals 14 to the Cardinals 40
Lions20Cardinals16
Field goal6 plays, from the Cardinals 22 to the Cardinals 6
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defenders
Lions20Cardinals22
Lions20Cardinals23
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Lions 4
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter44 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end, two receivers and one linebackerDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, five linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFour
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 10 to the Cardinals 40
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 2 to the Cardinals 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSix
Lions23Cardinals23
Field goal9 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Cardinals 8
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 23 to midfield
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Lions26Cardinals23
Field goal15 plays, from the Lions 9 to the Cardinals 18
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cardinals -4.5
Closing total
55.5
Lions moneyline
+193
Cardinals moneyline
-218
Cardinals closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 55.5; the game landed 49 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Lions 7 days · Cardinals 7 days
Coaches
Matt Patricia vs Kliff Kingsbury
1st · 5:40DET +10% win prob(5:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle intended for 85-D.Arnold INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Harmon (58-J.Collins) [58-J.Collins] at DET 11. 26-D.Harmon to DET 32 for 21 yards (29-C.Edmonds).
3rd · 12:55DET +9% win prob(12:55) (Shotgun) 17-A.Isabella right end to DET 45 for -6 yards (30-J.Okudah).
