2020 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 2020 · State Farm Stadium

Detroit LionsWinner

Arizona Cardinals

ARI -4.5 upsetU 55.5 ✓DomeCardinals closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Detroit Lions 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, ARI +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:04DET — ARI DET ball · 2nd & 13DET 82%

(:04) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-3-J.Fox.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:04ARI +18% win prob(:04) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Q3 · 7:51DET +18% win prob(7:51) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Okudah at DET 42. 30-J.Okudah pushed ob at ARI 22 for 36 yards (64-J.Sweezy).
Q2 · 6:20ARI +15% win prob(6:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 83-J.James for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [42-D.Kennard].
Q2 · 0:35ARI +14% win prob(:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 19-K.Golladay for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Cardinals
Offensive plays	62	63
Total yards	322	377 (edge)
Yards per play	5.2	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.03 (edge)	-0.00
Success rate	42%	54% (edge)
Dropback rate	56%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18 (edge)	-0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	0.11 (edge)
Third downs	4/12	4/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	26 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Cardinals outgained Lions 377–322 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

23/35, 270 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

-4.1 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

22/31, 270 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.3 expected points added · +4.4% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Adrian PetersonRB

22 att, 75 yds, 0 TD

-4.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Kenyan DrakeRB

18 att, 73 yds, 0 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

DeAndre HopkinsWR

10/12 for 137 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · 3.0 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Kenny GolladayWR

6/7 for 57 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DET	DET 25	12	56	6:33	Turnover on downs
2	ARI	ARI 28	9	42	2:59	Interception
3	DET	DET 32	4	-2	1:06	Punt
4	ARI	ARI 20	10	74	4:08	Touchdown
5	DET	DET 23	8	18	3:56	Punt
6	ARI	ARI 10	4	10	1:41	Interception
7	DET	ARI 27	7	27	3:22	Touchdown
8	ARI	ARI 26	11	74	4:22	Touchdown
9	DET	DET 25	8	75	1:22	Touchdown
10	ARI	ARI 21	3	10	0:31	End of half
11	ARI	ARI 25	8	44	3:41	Turnover on downs
12	DET	DET 25	5	1	1:37	Punt
13	ARI	ARI 14	6	19	2:06	Interception
14	DET	ARI 22	6	16	2:09	Turnover on downs
15	ARI	ARI 25	13	75	4:52	Touchdown
16	DET	DET 10	9	50	3:37	Punt
17	ARI	ARI 2	4	2	0:55	Punt
18	DET	ARI 36	8	14	4:19	Turnover on downs
19	ARI	ARI 23	7	27	1:55	Punt
20	DET	DET 9	10	67	4:49	Turnover on downs

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 75 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	22/31	270	2	0	4	6.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Adrian Peterson	22	75	3.4	-4.0
Kerryon Johnson	3	16	5.3	0.6
Jamal Agnew	1	2	2.0	-0.4
Matthew Stafford	1	-3	-3.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kenny Golladay	6	7	57	1	23%	4.5
T.J. Hockenson	4	7	53	0	23%	2.0
Marvin Jones	3	3	51	0	10%	3.2
Jesse James	3	4	28	1	13%	4.1
Jamal Agnew	2	2	20	0	6%	0.3
D'Andre Swift	1	2	19	0	6%	0.6
Danny Amendola	1	4	18	0	13%	-3.0
Kerryon Johnson	1	1	14	0	3%	-0.5
Adrian Peterson	1	1	10	0	3%	1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tracy Walker III	10	2	0.0	0	0
Jeff Okudah	6	0	0.0	1	1
Jamie Collins	1	5	0.0	1	2
Will Harris	3	1	0.0	0	0
Duron Harmon	2	2	0.0	1	2
Christian Jones	1	3	0.0	0	0
Darryl Roberts	4	0	0.0	0	0
Nicholas Williams	2	1	0.0	0	0
Romeo Okwara	2	0	1.0	0	0
Reggie Ragland	1	1	0.0	0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	23/35	270	2	3	1	-4.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kenyan Drake	18	73	4.1	0	2.3
Kyler Murray	5	29	5.8	1	3.1
Chase Edmonds	3	13	4.3	0	0.3
Andy Isabella	1	-6	-6.0	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	10	12	137	0	36%	3.0
Andy Isabella	4	4	47	2	12%	4.9
Darrell Daniels	2	2	24	0	6%	1.8
KeeSean Johnson	2	7	24	0	21%	-3.5
Chase Edmonds	2	2	21	0	6%	3.0
Dan Arnold	1	2	11	0	6%	-3.6
Kenyan Drake	1	1	6	0	3%	0.3
Larry Fitzgerald	1	3	0	0	9%	-7.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Budda Baker	8	0	0.0	1
De'Vondre Campbell	4	2	0.0	0
Dre Kirkpatrick	4	2	0.0	0
Jordan Hicks	3	2	0.0	0
Chris Banjo	3	1	0.0	0
Corey Peters	2	2	1.0	0
Deionte Thompson	4	0	0.0	0
Devon Kennard	2	1	1.0	0
Haason Reddick	2	1	1.0	1
Byron Murphy	3	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ARI -4.5
Closing total: 55.5
DET moneyline: +193
ARI moneyline: -218

Cardinals closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 55.5; the game landed 49 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: DET 7 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches: Matt Patricia vs Kliff Kingsbury