2020 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Green Bay PackersWinner

New Orleans Saints

NO -3.5 upsetO 52 ✓DomeSaints closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Green Bay Packers 37–30. Biggest swing: Q3 14:50, NO +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 14:50GB — NO GB ball · 3rd & 10NO 72%

(14:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 13-A.Lazard to NO 3 for 72 yards (26-P.Williams). Pass 43, YAC 29

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 14:50NO +21% win prob(14:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 13-A.Lazard to NO 3 for 72 yards (26-P.Williams). Pass 43, YAC 29
Q4 · 12:23GB +19% win prob(12:23) T.Hill at quarterback. (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill up the middle to GB 43 for -2 yards (55-Z.Smith). FUMBLES (55-Z.Smith), RECOVERED by GB-55-Z.Smith at GB 43. 55-Z.Smith to GB 43 for no gain (7-T.Hill).
Q3 · 0:50NO +18% win prob(:50) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 41-A.Kamara for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -4, YAC 56
Q3 · 2:26NO +14% win prob(2:26) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-M.Lewis for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 15, YAC 3

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Packers	Saints
Offensive plays	58	57
Total yards	370	397 (edge)
Yards per play	6.4	7.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.20 (edge)	0.13
Success rate	52% (edge)	46%
Dropback rate	59%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.39 (edge)	0.30
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07 (edge)	-0.22
Third downs	5/11	5/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Saints outgained Packers 397–370 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

29/36, 288 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

10.7 expected points added · +5.9% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

21/32, 283 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

10.9 expected points added · +5.6% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

16 att, 69 yds, 1 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

6 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Allen LazardWR

6/8 for 146 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 13.0 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

13/14 for 139 yds, 2 TD

40% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 25	5	9	1:52	Punt
2	GB	GB 31	10	30	5:38	Turnover on downs
3	NO	NO 23	6	77	2:23	Touchdown
4	GB	GB 25	13	45	5:55	Turnover on downs
5	NO	NO 25	5	-6	2:13	Punt
6	GB	50	4	50	1:27	Touchdown
7	NO	NO 25	12	59	6:04	Turnover on downs
8	GB	GB 22	6	15	1:48	Punt
9	NO	NO 39	12	56	2:34	Touchdown
10	GB	—	1	0	0:06	End of half
11	GB	GB 25	9	75	2:02	Touchdown
12	NO	NO 25	13	63	7:03	Turnover on downs
13	GB	GB 25	8	56	3:38	Touchdown
14	NO	NO 25	5	70	1:44	Touchdown
15	GB	GB 25	6	23	2:26	Turnover on downs
16	NO	GB 48	2	5	0:48	Fumble
17	GB	GB 43	7	26	3:32	Turnover on downs
18	NO	NO 25	5	5	2:11	Punt
19	GB	GB 36	8	50	4:36	Touchdown
20	NO	NO 25	10	59	1:28	Turnover on downs
21	GB	NO 43	2	0	0:32	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 77 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	21/32	283	3	0	1	10.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	16	69	4.3	1	-1.0
Jamaal Williams	6	14	2.3	0	0.1
Aaron Rodgers	2	12	6.0	0	0.2
Tyler Ervin	1	5	5.0	0	0.0
Allen Lazard	1	-2	-2.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Lazard	6	8	146	1	27%	13.0
Robert Tonyan	5	5	50	1	17%	3.5
Jace Sternberger	3	3	36	0	10%	0.7
Marcedes Lewis	1	2	18	1	7%	1.3
Aaron Jones	2	4	17	0	13%	-0.7
Tyler Ervin	2	2	8	0	7%	-0.1
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	1	4	5	0	13%	-2.3
Jamaal Williams	1	1	3	0	3%	0.2
Darrius Shepherd	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Ty Summers	6	3	0
Krys Barnes	4	5	0
Darnell Savage	5	2	0
Adrian Amos	4	1	0
Kevin King	3	1	0
Oren Burks	4	0	0
Will Redmond	3	1	0
Jaire Alexander	3	0	1
Preston Smith	1	2	0
Chandon Sullivan	2	0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	29/36	288	3	0	2	10.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	6	58	9.7	0.2
Latavius Murray	12	58	4.8	1.3
Taysom Hill	2	6	3.0	-5.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Alvin Kamara	13	14	139	2	40%	5.7
Emmanuel Sanders	4	5	56	1	14%	8.1
Tre'Quan Smith	4	6	42	0	17%	0.8
Jared Cook	2	3	21	0	9%	0.8
Adam Trautman	2	2	17	0	6%	1.2
Latavius Murray	1	1	7	0	3%	0.3
Deonte Harty	2	3	5	0	9%	-1.6
Taysom Hill	1	1	1	0	3%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Malcolm Jenkins	8	1	0.0
Demario Davis	6	1	1.0
Janoris Jenkins	4	2	0.0
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	6	0	0.0
Marshon Lattimore	5	0	0.0
Cameron Jordan	1	3	0.0
Alex Anzalone	3	0	0.0
P.J. Williams	1	1	0.0
Justin Hardee	1	1	0.0
Marcus Williams	1	1	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -3.5
Closing total: 52
GB moneyline: +154
NO moneyline: -172

Saints closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 52; the game landed 67 — over by 15.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: GB 7 days · NO 6 days
Coaches: Matt LaFleur vs Sean Payton