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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Green Bay Packers 37 at New Orleans Saints 30. Final.
Saints -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 3
Green Bay Packers 37, Saints 30 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 14:50, 3rd and 10, on Allen Lazard — 20.7 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 14:50 · 3rd and 10
Allen Lazard
Packers
(14:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 13-A.Lazard to NO 3 for 72 yards (26-P.Williams). Pass 43, YAC 29
O 52 ✓
Dome
Saints closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Green Bay Packers 37–30. Biggest swing: Q3 14:50, Packers +20.7% win probability on one snap.
20.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Alvin KamaraSaintsQ3 0:50(:50) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 41-A.Kamara for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -4, YAC 56
18.4pts
Taysom HillPackersQ4 12:23(12:23) T.Hill at quarterback. (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill up the middle to GB 43 for -2 yards (55-Z.Smith). FUMBLES (55-Z.Smith), RECOVERED by GB-55-Z.Smith at GB 43. 55-Z.Smith to GB 43 for no gain (7-T.Hill).
19.4pts
What separated them
Red zone
Packers won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Saints at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Saints at 1 giveaway.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Saints at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Saints at 4 chunk plays.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Packers159 of 168 plays carry both curves
(14:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 13-A.Lazard to NO 3 for 72 yards (26-P.Williams). Pass 43, YAC 29
Swing −20.7 for SaintsExpected points −6.51 for SaintsModel and market agree here.play 87
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 14:50NO +21% win prob(14:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 13-A.Lazard to NO 3 for 72 yards (26-P.Williams). Pass 43, YAC 29
4th · 12:23GB +19% win prob(12:23) T.Hill at quarterback. (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill up the middle to GB 43 for -2 yards (55-Z.Smith). FUMBLES (55-Z.Smith), RECOVERED by GB-55-Z.Smith at GB 43. 55-Z.Smith to GB 43 for no gain (7-T.Hill).
3rd · 0:50NO +18% win prob(:50) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 41-A.Kamara for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -4, YAC 56
3rd · 2:26NO +14% win prob(2:26) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-M.Lewis for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 15, YAC 3
2nd · 0:09NO +13% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 17-E.Sanders for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 10, YAC 0
1st · 6:47NO +11% win prob(6:47) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara left tackle to GB 18 for 49 yards (31-A.Amos).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mason Crosby's 49-yard field goal with 8:52 left in the 4th put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:36Mason Crosby·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.Bradley+33–0
4th0:35Wil Lutz·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+337–30
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categorySaints
Packers6–2Saints
370Total yards397
6.4Yards per play7.0
52%Success rate46%
45%Third-down rate45%
4Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays4
20First downs19
1Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Packers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.20Packers: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.13Saints: +0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.39Packers: +0.39 expected points added per play
+0.30Saints: +0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Packers: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.22Saints: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 58 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Saints’s 57 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Packers 5, Saints 5.
NoteSaints outgained Packers 397-370 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's sack or hit rate turned over: 15.8% in week 2 against 5.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.7 points.
GB's pass rate over expected turned over: −8.7 pts in week 2 against +6.8 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 19 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.6 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−1.62× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Saints8.8%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.2 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.25× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.3%, 7.6 points below their season mean of 12.9% and 1.6 times their own 4.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Brees pass+23% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:50) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 41-A.Kamara for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -4, YAC 56
Q3 0:50 · Saints · 1st & 10 at NO 48 · gained 52 · +4.17 EP · +23.3% win probability
157 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 77 yards from the NO 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
46%
Yards
766
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.0987%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.3464%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20-0.0955%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.3246%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.2057%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.1640%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Packers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 34
Packers3Saints0
Field goal11 plays, from the Packers 31 to the Saints 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defenders
Packers3Saints6
Packers3Saints7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Saints 23 to the Packers 11
The period ended11 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Saints 20
2nd quarter49 plays
Packers6Saints7
Field goal3 plays, from the Saints 17 to the Saints 15
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 27
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Packers12Saints7
Packers13Saints7
Touchdown4 plays, from midfield to the Saints 2
Packers13Saints10
Field goal13 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Packers 26
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 22 to the Packers 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Packers13Saints16
Packers13Saints17
Touchdown16 plays, from the Saints 39 to the Packers 10
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Packers19Saints17
Packers20Saints17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Saints 1
Packers20Saints20
Field goal14 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Packers 12
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Packers26Saints20
Packers27Saints20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Saints 18
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Packers27Saints26
Packers27Saints27
Touchdown7 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 48
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter43 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Packers 39 to the Packers 48
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Packers 48 to the Packers 41
Packers30Saints27
Field goal7 plays, from the Packers 43 to the Saints 31
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 30
Packers36Saints27
Packers37Saints27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 36 to the Saints 1
Packers37Saints30
Field goal11 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Packers 16
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -3.5
Closing total
52
Packers moneyline
+154
Saints moneyline
-172
Saints closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 52; the game landed 67 — over by 15.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
Packers 7 days · Saints 6 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Sean Payton
2nd · 10:36
NO +11% win prob
(10:36) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 13-A.Lazard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 0
4th · 13:12GB +11% win prob(13:12) 33-A.Jones right guard to GB 49 for 1 yard (23-M.Lattimore, 27-M.Jenkins). New Orleans challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 33-A.Jones right guard to GB 48 for no gain (23-M.Lattimore, 27-M.Jenkins).
