2020 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 2020 · Heinz Field

Houston Texans

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

PIT -4 ✓O 46.5 ✓Steelers closed -4 and covered, winning by 7.

Pittsburgh Steelers 28–21. Biggest swing: Q4 14:57, PIT +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 14:57HOU — PIT HOU ball · 3rd & 10PIT 52%

(14:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 18-R.Cobb to PIT 38 for 34 yards (28-M.Hilton) [91-S.Tuitt].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 14:57PIT +15% win prob(14:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 18-R.Cobb to PIT 38 for 34 yards (28-M.Hilton) [91-S.Tuitt].
Q2 · 0:28PIT +13% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 15-W.Fuller for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:22PIT +13% win prob(1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 10:57PIT +12% win prob(10:57) 65-J.Hawkins reported in as eligible. 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep middle to 11-C.Claypool. PENALTY on HOU-21-B.Roby, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at HOU 39 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Steelers
Offensive plays	47	73
Total yards	260	394 (edge)
Yards per play	5.5 (edge)	5.4
Expected points added / play	0.04	0.16 (edge)
Success rate	36%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	70%	55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.21	0.22 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.36	0.08 (edge)
Third downs	5/12	8/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs 0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

19/27, 264 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

7.0 expected points added · +10.6% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

23/36, 237 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.6 expected points added · +0.1% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

James ConnerRB

18 att, 109 yds, 1 TD

5.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Anthony McFarlandRB

6 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-0.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Randall CobbWR

4/4 for 95 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 9.5 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Will FullerWR

4/5 for 54 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 25	5	5	0:54	Punt
2	PIT	PIT 22	11	53	5:11	Turnover on downs
3	HOU	HOU 26	9	74	2:54	Touchdown
4	PIT	PIT 23	5	-5	2:13	Punt
5	HOU	HOU 42	4	-1	2:17	Punt
6	PIT	PIT 5	4	3	1:01	Punt
7	HOU	HOU 46	10	54	3:58	Touchdown
8	PIT	PIT 25	14	84	6:27	Touchdown
9	HOU	HOU 16	5	2	2:27	Punt
10	PIT	PIT 37	8	63	1:24	Touchdown
11	HOU	HOU 25	7	75	0:50	Touchdown
12	PIT	PIT 25	2	0	0:24	End of half
13	PIT	PIT 30	13	38	5:06	Turnover on downs
14	HOU	HOU 26	5	6	2:16	Punt
15	PIT	PIT 37	4	9	2:14	Punt
16	HOU	HOU 20	4	-2	2:24	Punt
17	PIT	PIT 43	4	2	1:01	Punt
18	HOU	HOU 15	8	42	3:32	Interception
19	PIT	PIT 21	13	81	7:03	Touchdown
20	HOU	HOU 25	5	5	1:37	Punt
21	PIT	PIT 31	11	66	4:47	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 84 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	19/27	264	2	1	5	7.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Johnson	13	23	1.8	1	-4.5
Deshaun Watson	1	5	5.0	0	0.1
C.J. Prosise	1	1	1.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Randall Cobb	4	4	95	1	15%	9.5
Will Fuller	4	5	54	1	19%	7.2
Kenny Stills	3	4	35	0	15%	-0.1
Jordan Akins	2	3	28	0	11%	-0.6
David Johnson	2	3	23	0	11%	0.1
Brandin Cooks	3	5	23	0	19%	-0.2
Cullen Gillaspia	1	1	6	0	4%	-0.2
Darren Fells	0	2	0	0	7%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Zach Cunningham	7	3	0.0	0
Benardrick McKinney	6	4	0.0	0
Vernon Hargreaves	6	0	0.0	1
Eric Murray	5	0	0.0	1
Justin Reid	3	2	0.0	0
Whitney Mercilus	2	3	0.0	0
A.J. Moore	3	1	0.0	0
J.J. Watt	1	3	0.0	0
Brennan Scarlett	2	1	0.0	0
Carlos Watkins	2	0	1.0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	23/36	237	2	0	2	9.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	18	109	6.1	1	5.7
Anthony McFarland	6	42	7.0	0	-0.0
Benny Snell	7	11	1.6	0	-2.1
Diontae Johnson	1	9	9.0	0	0.9
Jaylen Samuels	1	1	1.0	0	-1.8
Ben Roethlisberger	5	-3	-0.6	0	-6.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Eric Ebron	5	7	52	1	20%	5.5
JuJu Smith-Schuster	4	5	43	1	14%	6.4
James Conner	4	5	40	0	14%	0.6
James Washington	5	7	36	0	20%	1.6
Vance McDonald	3	3	35	0	9%	2.6
Chase Claypool	1	4	24	0	11%	1.0
Anthony McFarland	1	2	7	0	6%	0.0
Diontae Johnson	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Mike Hilton	8	0	0.0	1	1
Minkah Fitzpatrick	5	0	0.0	0	0
Terrell Edmunds	4	0	0.0	0	0
Devin Bush	2	2	0.5	0	1
Stephon Tuitt	2	2	1.0	0	0
T.J. Watt	3	0	1.0	0	0
Bud Dupree	1	2	1.5	0	0
Joe Haden	2	0	0.0	0	0
Olasunkanmi Adeniyi	2	0	0.0	0	0
Marcus Allen	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -4
Closing total: 46.5
HOU moneyline: +174
PIT moneyline: -196

Steelers closed -4 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 49 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 79°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: HOU 7 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: Bill O'Brien vs Mike Tomlin