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Houston Texans 21 at Pittsburgh Steelers 28. Final.
Steelers -4 ✓O 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 3
Pittsburgh Steelers 28, Texans 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 14:57, 3rd and 10, on Randall Cobb — 15.4 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 14:57 · 3rd and 10
Randall Cobb
Texans
(14:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 18-R.Cobb to PIT 38 for 34 yards (28-M.Hilton) [91-S.Tuitt].
Steelers closed -4 and covered, winning by 7.
Pittsburgh Steelers 28–21. Biggest swing: Q4 14:57, Texans +15.4% win probability on one snap.
15.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
JuJu Smith-SchusterSteelersQ2 1:22(1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.6pts
Will FullerTexansQ2 0:28(:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 15-W.Fuller for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.4pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.36 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Steelers at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Steelers won this one — no giveaways, against Texans at 1 giveaway.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Texans158 of 168 plays carry both curves
(14:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 18-R.Cobb to PIT 38 for 34 yards (28-M.Hilton) [91-S.Tuitt].
Swing −15.4 for SteelersExpected points −3.49 for SteelersThe model had Texans 3 points higher than the market did.play 131
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 14:57PIT +15% win prob(14:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 18-R.Cobb to PIT 38 for 34 yards (28-M.Hilton) [91-S.Tuitt].
2nd · 0:28PIT +13% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 15-W.Fuller for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:22PIT +13% win prob(1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:57PIT +12% win prob(10:57) 65-J.Hawkins reported in as eligible. 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep middle to 11-C.Claypool. PENALTY on HOU-21-B.Roby, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at HOU 39 - No Play.
1st · 6:07PIT +10% win prob(6:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 18-R.Cobb for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-C.Heyward].
2nd · 5:09PIT +10% win prob(5:09) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 85-E.Ebron for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
James Conner's 12-yard rushing touchdown with 6:30 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:59Chris Boswell·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap K.Canaday+30–3
3rd9:57Chris Boswell·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap K.Canaday+321–20
4th6:30James Conner·12-yd TD run12-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+821–28
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categorySteelers
Texans1–7Steelers
260Total yards394
5.5Yards per play5.4
36%Success rate51%
42%Third-down rate47%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays8
13First downs24
5Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Steelers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Texans: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.16Steelers: +0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Texans: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.22Steelers: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.36Texans: −0.36 expected points added per play
+0.08Steelers: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 47 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Steelers’s 73 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Texans 3, Steelers 6.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's early-down pass rate turned over: 73.9% in week 2 against 60.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 33 pts
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Steelers33.3%
leaned — got home · +10.2 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 10.2 points above their season mean of 23.1% and 1.3 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hawkins reported+17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(10:57) 65-J.Hawkins reported in as eligible. 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep middle to 11-C.Claypool. PENALTY on HOU-21-B.Roby, Defensive Pass Interference, 29 yards, enforced at HOU 39 - No Play.
Q3 10:57 · Steelers · 4th & 1 at HOU 39 · gained nothing · +3.74 EP · +17.2% win probability
156 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 79 yards from the PIT 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
43%
Yards
649
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.1961%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.2381%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.3736%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.7933%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.5350%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 30
Texans0Steelers3
Field goal12 plays, from the Steelers 22 to the Texans 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Texans6Steelers3
Texans7Steelers3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Steelers 28
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Steelers 28
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 5 to the Steelers 8
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Texans13Steelers3
Texans14Steelers3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 44 to the Steelers 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Texans14Steelers9
Texans14Steelers10
Touchdown14 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Texans 1
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 16 to the Texans 18
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Texans14Steelers16
Texans14Steelers17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Steelers 37 to the Texans 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Texans20Steelers17
Texans21Steelers17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Steelers 14
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Texans21Steelers20
Field goal15 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Texans 8
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Texans 32
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 37 to the Steelers 46
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 26
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 43 to the Steelers 45
The period ended4 plays, from the Texans 15 to the Texans 28
4th quarter39 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.4 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Steelers 38
Texans21Steelers26
Texans21Steelers28
Touchdown13 plays, from the Steelers 21 to the Texans 12
Punt6 plays
The period ended15 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Texans 3
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
