2020 Week 3 · Mon, Sep 28, 2020 · M&T Bank Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Baltimore Ravens

BAL -3.5 upsetU 55 ✓Ravens closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Kansas City Chiefs 34–20. Biggest swing: Q2 12:52, BAL +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 12:52KC — BAL BAL ballKC 71%

7-H.Butker kicks 58 yards from KC 35 to BAL 7. 13-D.Duvernay for 93 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 12:52BAL +12% win prob7-H.Butker kicks 58 yards from KC 35 to BAL 7. 13-D.Duvernay for 93 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:54BAL +9% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 17-M.Hardman for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN [44-M.Humphrey].
Q1 · 7:23BAL +7% win prob(7:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill pushed ob at BAL 3 for 33 yards (32-D.Elliott).
Q2 · 0:52KC +7% win prob(:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 43 for -7 yards (95-C.Jones). FUMBLES (95-C.Jones) [95-C.Jones], RECOVERED by KC-56-B.Niemann at KC 49. 56-B.Niemann to KC 49 for no gain (89-M.Andrews).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Ravens
Offensive plays	73	52
Total yards	517 (edge)	229
Yards per play	7.1 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	0.32 (edge)	-0.12
Success rate	55% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	63%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.77 (edge)	-0.35
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.44	0.36 (edge)
Third downs	10/13 (edge)	3/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	28 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1	1

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

31/42, 385 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

31.4 expected points added · +9.4% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

15/28, 97 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-14.9 expected points added · -10.7% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

9 att, 83 yds, 0 TD

6.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB

20 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

-4.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

6/7 for 87 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Mecole HardmanWR

4/6 for 81 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 8.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	12	67	5:40	Turnover on downs
2	KC	KC 25	8	70	2:37	Touchdown
3	BAL	BAL 34	5	-4	2:31	Punt
4	KC	KC 32	14	72	6:20	Touchdown
5	BAL	—	2	0	0:12	Defensive touchdown
6	KC	KC 25	5	6	1:34	Punt
7	BAL	BAL 27	4	4	1:00	Punt
8	KC	KC 27	7	68	3:26	Touchdown
9	BAL	BAL 25	6	5	2:01	Punt
10	KC	KC 16	8	89	2:51	Touchdown
11	BAL	BAL 25	5	25	1:03	Fumble
12	KC	KC 49	6	28	0:40	Turnover on downs
13	BAL	BAL 32	2	0	0:05	End of half
14	KC	KC 20	5	44	2:04	Fumble
15	BAL	BAL 21	12	60	6:43	Turnover on downs
16	KC	KC 25	7	24	3:16	Turnover on downs
17	BAL	KC 49	7	49	3:02	Touchdown
18	KC	KC 25	15	75	6:41	Touchdown
19	BAL	BAL 25	10	23	3:24	Turnover on downs
20	KC	KC 31	10	41	4:27	Turnover on downs
21	BAL	BAL 29	1	0	0:23	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 89 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	31/42	385	4	0	0	31.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	20	64	3.2	0	-4.3
Patrick Mahomes	4	26	6.5	1	3.9
Tyreek Hill	2	25	12.5	0	2.8
Darwin Thompson	2	11	5.5	0	-5.4
Darrel Williams	2	6	3.0	0	-1.5
Anthony Sherman	1	0	0.0	0	-3.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	6	7	87	0	17%	6.5
Mecole Hardman	4	6	81	1	15%	8.1
Tyreek Hill	5	6	77	1	15%	6.4
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	5	6	70	0	15%	6.3
Sammy Watkins	7	8	62	0	20%	4.5
Anthony Sherman	1	1	5	1	2%	2.7
Eric Fisher	1	1	2	1	2%	0.9
Darrel Williams	2	2	1	0	5%	-0.3
Darwin Thompson	0	2	0	0	5%	-0.9
Demarcus Robinson	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6
Nick Keizer	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Juan Thornhill	5	1	0.0	0
Chris Jones	3	2	2.0	0
Anthony Hitchens	0	5	0.0	1
Daniel Sorensen	4	1	0.0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	3	2	0.0	0
Damien Wilson	2	2	0.0	1
Tedric Thompson	3	1	0.0	0
Rashad Fenton	3	1	0.0	0
Ben Niemann	2	0	1.0	0
Charvarius Ward	1	0	0.0	1

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	15/28	97	1	0	4	-14.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Lamar Jackson	9	83	9.2	6.0
Gus Edwards	4	39	9.8	2.0
Mark Ingram	7	30	4.3	-0.5
J.K. Dobbins	1	6	6.0	1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
J.K. Dobbins	4	4	38	0	15%	1.4
Mark Andrews	3	8	22	0	30%	-3.1
Marquise Brown	2	6	13	0	22%	-0.5
Miles Boykin	1	2	8	0	7%	-2.1
Devin Duvernay	2	3	7	0	11%	-0.3
Nick Boyle	1	1	5	1	4%	1.6
Willie Snead	2	2	4	0	7%	-2.0
Mark Ingram	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Chuck Clark	6	4	0
Brandon Williams	7	0	0
Marlon Humphrey	3	3	2
Derek Wolfe	1	5	0
DeShon Elliott	4	1	1
Jimmy Smith	3	2	0
L.J. Fort	2	3	0
Patrick Queen	4	0	0
Calais Campbell	2	2	1
Marcus Peters	3	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -3.5
Closing total: 55
KC moneyline: +156
BAL moneyline: -174

Ravens closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 55; the game landed 54 — under by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 73°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: KC 8 days · BAL 8 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs John Harbaugh