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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:47 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chiefs.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Chiefs163 of 175 plays carry both curves
Q2 · 12:52Chiefs 13 — Ravens 9BAL ballKC 71%
Chiefs 71%Ravens 29%
7-H.Butker kicks 58 yards from KC 35 to BAL 7. 13-D.Duvernay for 93 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +12.1 for RavensExpected points +5.74 for RavensThe model had Chiefs 4 points higher than the market did.play 45
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 12:52BAL +12% win prob7-H.Butker kicks 58 yards from KC 35 to BAL 7. 13-D.Duvernay for 93 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:54BAL +9% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 17-M.Hardman for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN [44-M.Humphrey].
1st · 7:23BAL +7% win prob(7:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill pushed ob at BAL 3 for 33 yards (32-D.Elliott).
2nd · 0:52KC +7% win prob(:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 43 for -7 yards (95-C.Jones). FUMBLES (95-C.Jones) [95-C.Jones], RECOVERED by KC-56-B.Niemann at KC 49. 56-B.Niemann to KC 49 for no gain (89-M.Andrews).
1st · 7:59BAL +7% win prob(7:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce pushed ob at BAL 36 for 11 yards (32-D.Elliott).
3rd · 3:01KC +7% win prob(3:01) 42-A.Sherman up the middle to KC 49 for no gain (93-C.Campbell; 95-D.Wolfe).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Patrick Mahomes's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 6:48 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:24Justin Tucker·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+30–3
1st6:48Patrick Mahomes·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide leftLead never changed again+66–3
2nd12:55Anthony Sherman·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+713–3
2nd12:52Devin Duvernay·93-yd return TD93-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+713–10
2nd6:46Tyreek Hill·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+720–10
2nd1:54Mecole Hardman·49-yd TD catch49-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+727–10
3rd6:17Justin Tucker·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+327–13
4th8:19Eric Fisher·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+734–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryRavens
Chiefs8–0Ravens
517Total yards229
7.1Yards per play4.4
55%Success rate40%
77%Third-down rate33%
4Red-zone touchdowns1
9Explosive plays5
28First downs13
0Sacks taken4
1Turnovers1
The read
Chiefs ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.77 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.32Chiefs: +0.32 expected points added per play
−0.12Ravens: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.77Chiefs: +0.77 expected points added per play
−0.35Ravens: −0.35 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.44Chiefs: −0.44 expected points added per play
+0.36Ravens: +0.36 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 73 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Ravens’s 52 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 5, Ravens 4.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 30 pts
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Ravens8.7%
inside their normal wobble · −8.9 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 64.3%, 18.1 points above their season mean of 46.2% and 2.0 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
71Mitchell SchwartzT · Every snap100%75 snaps
75Mike RemmersT · Every snap100%75 snaps
72Eric FisherT · Every snap100%75 snaps
62Austin ReiterC · Every snap100%75 snaps
70Kelechi OsemeleG · Every snap100%75 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%75 snaps
14Sammy WatkinsWR · Full-time87%65 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time81%61 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Full-time80%60 snaps
25Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Heavy rotation69%52 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
H.Butker kicks+11% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
7-H.Butker kicks 58 yards from KC 35 to BAL 7. 13-D.Duvernay for 93 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 12:52 · Ravens · Kickoff at KC 35 · gained nothing · +5.74 EP · +10.9% win probability
161 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 84 yards from the KC 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
45%
Yards
745
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.4666%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.1274%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.2636%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.1411%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.2760%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.2360%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Chiefs0Ravens3
Field goal12 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Chiefs 8
Chiefs6Ravens3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Ravens 3
Punt6 plays
The period ended11 plays, from the Chiefs 32 to the Ravens 24
2nd quarter58 plays
Chiefs12Ravens3
Chiefs13Ravens3
Touchdown5 plays, from the Ravens 23 to the Ravens 5
Chiefs13Ravens9
Chiefs13Ravens10
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 31
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 27 to the Ravens 31
Chiefs19Ravens10
Chiefs20Ravens10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the Ravens 20
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 34
Chiefs26Ravens10
Chiefs27Ravens10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 16 to the Ravens 44
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to midfield
No good9 plays, from the Chiefs 49 to the Ravens 23
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Ravens 31
Chiefs27Ravens13
Field goal15 plays, from the Ravens 21 to the Chiefs 19
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 49
The period ended6 plays, from the Chiefs 49 to the Chiefs 8
4th quarter45 plays
Chiefs27Ravens19
Chiefs27Ravens20
Touchdown2 plays
Chiefs33Ravens20
Chiefs34Ravens20
Touchdown16 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Ravens 2
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Chiefs 13
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Chiefs 31 to the Ravens 28
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
