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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
Buffalo Bills 35, Rams 32 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 7:32, 3rd and 22, on Josh Allen — 25.7 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 7:32 · 3rd and 22
Josh Allen
Rams
(7:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at 50 for -8 yards (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald) [99-A.Donald], RECOVERED by LA-99-A.Donald at LA 48. 99-A.Donald to LA 48 for no gain (66-B.Winters). PENALTY on BUF-17-J.Allen, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LA 48.
Bills closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Buffalo Bills 35–32 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 7:32, Rams +25.7% win probability on one snap.
25.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cole BeasleyBillsQ4 3:20(3:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 11-C.Beasley to LA 47 for 22 yards (24-T.Rapp).
17.9pts
Tyler KroftBillsQ4 0:21(:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 81-T.Kroft for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21.3pts
What separated them
Red zone
Bills won this one — 5 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Rams at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 12 chunk plays, against Bills at 9 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 60% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bills at 52% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Rams owned this one and still lost it — +0.31 expected points per carry, against Bills at +0.14 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Rams158 of 168 plays carry both curves
(7:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at 50 for -8 yards (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald) [99-A.Donald], RECOVERED by LA-99-A.Donald at LA 48. 99-A.Donald to LA 48 for no gain (66-B.Winters). PENALTY on BUF-17-J.Allen,
Swing −25.7 for BillsExpected points −4.49 for BillsModel and market agree here.play 141
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 7:32LA +26% win prob(7:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at 50 for -8 yards (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald) [99-A.Donald], RECOVERED by LA-99-A.Donald at LA 48. 99-A.Donald to LA 48 for no gain (66-B.Winters). PENALTY on BUF-17-J.Allen, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LA 48.
4th · 0:21BUF +21% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 81-T.Kroft for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:20BUF +18% win prob(3:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 11-C.Beasley to LA 47 for 22 yards (24-T.Rapp).
4th · 0:49LA +17% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on BUF-17-J.Allen, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at LA 15 - No Play.
4th · 0:25BUF +17% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 13-G.Davis. PENALTY on LA-31-D.Williams, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at LA 13 - No Play.
4th · 1:37BUF +14% win prob(1:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley to LA 15 for 19 yards (22-T.Hill).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Kroft's 3-yard touchdown catch with 0:21 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Rams ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.33Rams: +0.33 expected points added per play
+0.20Bills: +0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.35Rams: +0.35 expected points added per play
+0.23Bills: +0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.31Rams: +0.31 expected points added per play
+0.14Bills: +0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 67 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Bills’s 58 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Rams 5, Bills 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 33 pts
right on their number · +2.9 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Bills16.7%
right on their number · +2.1 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was LA's pass rate over expected, -6.5 pts against a season mean of -0.8 pts — and LA swings 6.8 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
66Austin BlytheC · Every snap100%69 snaps
63Austin CorbettT · Every snap100%69 snaps
73David EdwardsT · Every snap100%69 snaps
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%69 snaps
77Andrew WhitworthT · Every snap100%69 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
17Robert WoodsWR · Full-time97%67 snaps
10Cooper KuppWR · Full-time90%62 snaps
11Josh ReynoldsWR · Full-time90%62 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Heavy rotation72%50 snaps
34Malcolm BrownRB · Rotational49%34 snaps
27Darrell HendersonRB · Rotational49%34 snaps
81Gerald EverettTE · Rotational41%28 snaps
12Van JeffersonWR · Situational12%8 snaps
Inactive · 5
Brian AllenCEric BanksDECam AkersRBBrycen HopkinsTETrishton JacksonWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass+31% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 81-T.Kroft for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:21 · Bills · 1st & goal at LA 3 · gained 3 · +1.93 EP · +30.8% win probability
156 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 97 yards from the LA 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.20
Success rate
51%
Yards
855
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58+0.4153%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.0959%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR15+0.3273%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.1838%
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Bills0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
Rams0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 42 to the Bills 43
No good11 plays, from the Rams 13 to the Bills 24
Rams0Bills6
Rams0Bills7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bills 43 to the Rams 1
The period ended5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 28
2nd quarter44 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Rams 44 to the Bills 44
Rams0Bills13
Rams0Bills14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bills 34 to the Rams 1
Rams3Bills14
Field goal14 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Bills 10
Rams3Bills20
Rams3Bills21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Rams 3
The period ended7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 35
3rd quarter43 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Bills 48
Rams3Bills27
Rams3Bills28
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 48 to the Rams 1
Rams9Bills28
Rams10Bills28
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Bills 1
Intercepted3 plays
Rams16Bills28
Rams17Bills28
Touchdown4 plays, from the Rams 41 to the Bills 25
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 32
The period ended3 plays, from the Rams 3 to the Rams 20
4th quarter46 plays
Rams23Bills28
Rams25Bills28
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Bills 16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Rams 30
Rams31Bills28
Rams32Bills28
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bills 37 to the Bills 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Rams32Bills34
Rams32Bills35
Touchdown17 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Rams 3
Fumble lost2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Ramscategory by categoryBills
Rams0
Bills6
