2020 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 2020 · New Era Field

Los Angeles Rams

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -1.5 ✓O 46.5 ✓16 mph windBills closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Buffalo Bills 35–32 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 7:32, LA +26% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 7:32LA — BUF BUF ball · 3rd & 22BUF 78%

(7:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at 50 for -8 yards (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald) [99-A.Donald], RECOVERED by LA-99-A.Donald at LA 48. 99-A.Donald to LA 48 for no gain (66-B.Winters). PENALTY on BUF-17-J.Allen,

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 7:32LA +26% win prob(7:32) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at 50 for -8 yards (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald) [99-A.Donald], RECOVERED by LA-99-A.Donald at LA 48. 99-A.Donald to LA 48 for no gain (66-B.Winters). PENALTY on BUF-17-J.Allen, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LA 48.
Q4 · 0:21BUF +21% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 81-T.Kroft for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 3:20BUF +18% win prob(3:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 11-C.Beasley to LA 47 for 22 yards (24-T.Rapp).
Q4 · 0:49LA +17% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on BUF-17-J.Allen, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at LA 15 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Bills
Offensive plays	67	58
Total yards	480 (edge)	375
Yards per play	7.2 (edge)	6.5
Expected points added / play	0.33 (edge)	0.20
Success rate	60% (edge)	52%
Dropback rate	54%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.35 (edge)	0.23
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.31 (edge)	0.14
Third downs	6/10 (edge)	5/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	12 (edge)	9
First downs gained on snaps	30 (edge)	22
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	2	2

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Jared GoffQB

23/32, 321 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

12.7 expected points added · +6.5% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

24/33, 311 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

8.5 expected points added · +12.1% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Darrell HendersonRB

20 att, 114 yds, 1 TD

6.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

13 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

9/10 for 107 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Cole BeasleyWR

6/7 for 100 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 42	5	1	1:07	Punt
2	LA	LA 13	10	53	5:46	Turnover on downs
3	BUF	BUF 43	12	57	6:26	Touchdown
4	LA	LA 25	8	31	2:42	Interception
5	BUF	BUF 34	8	66	3:55	Touchdown
6	LA	LA 25	14	63	6:55	Turnover on downs
7	BUF	BUF 25	10	75	2:31	Touchdown
8	LA	LA 25	4	14	0:38	End of half
9	LA	LA 25	8	27	2:39	Turnover on downs
10	BUF	BUF 48	8	62	4:16	Touchdown
11	LA	LA 25	10	75	3:18	Touchdown
12	BUF	BUF 29	3	2	0:34	Interception
13	LA	LA 41	4	59	1:21	Touchdown
14	BUF	BUF 25	5	0	1:35	Punt
15	LA	LA 3	11	109	5:43	Touchdown
16	BUF	BUF 25	7	32	3:09	Fumble
17	LA	BUF 37	7	37	2:55	Touchdown
18	BUF	BUF 25	13	80	4:15	Touchdown
19	LA	LA 25	2	12	0:15	Fumble

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 109 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	23/32	321	2	1	2	12.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Darrell Henderson	20	114	5.7	1	6.7
Robert Woods	3	30	10.0	0	2.6
Malcolm Brown	7	19	2.7	0	-0.7
Jared Goff	2	4	2.0	1	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cooper Kupp	9	10	107	1	32%	7.3
Robert Woods	5	6	74	1	19%	4.8
Josh Reynolds	4	5	60	0	16%	0.9
Tyler Higbee	2	2	40	0	6%	4.8
Gerald Everett	2	2	34	0	6%	3.6
Darrell Henderson	1	3	6	0	10%	-1.2
Malcolm Brown	0	2	0	0	6%	-0.6
Van Jefferson	0	1	0	0	3%	-3.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Taylor Rapp	6	2	0.0	0	0
John Johnson	5	2	0.0	1	1
Troy Hill	3	4	0.0	0	0
Aaron Donald	5	1	2.0	0	0
Darious Williams	2	0	0.0	0	0
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo	2	0	0.0	0	0
Sebastian Joseph	1	1	0.0	0	0
Justin Hollins	1	1	0.0	0	0
Michael Brockers	1	1	0.0	0	0
David Long	1	0	0.0	0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	24/33	311	4	1	4	8.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devin Singletary	13	71	5.5	0	0.9
T.J. Yeldon	3	18	6.0	0	0.9
Josh Allen	4	8	2.0	1	1.3
Isaiah McKenzie	1	4	4.0	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cole Beasley	6	7	100	0	22%	5.9
Gabe Davis	4	4	81	0	13%	5.9
Devin Singletary	4	5	50	0	16%	1.9
Stefon Diggs	4	6	49	1	19%	2.9
Tyler Kroft	4	5	24	2	16%	3.7
Isaiah McKenzie	1	2	6	0	6%	-1.1
Lee Smith	1	1	1	1	3%	2.1
John Brown	0	2	0	0	6%	-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Poyer	9	3	0.0	0	0
Micah Hyde	7	2	0.0	0	0
Taron Johnson	8	1	0.0	0	0
Levi Wallace	5	3	0.0	1	1
Matt Milano	3	2	1.0	0	0
Tremaine Edmunds	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jerry Hughes	1	1	0.0	0	0
Tyler Kroft	1	0	0.0	0	0
Trent Murphy	1	0	0.0	0	0
Quinton Jefferson	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -1.5
Closing total: 46.5
LA moneyline: +114
BUF moneyline: -126

Bills closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 67 — over by 20.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 79°F, wind 16 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: LA 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Sean McDermott

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.