2020 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 2020 · Gillette Stadium

Las Vegas Raiders

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -7 ✓O 47 ✓Patriots closed -7 and covered, winning by 16.

New England Patriots 36–20. Biggest swing: Q1 3:20, LV +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 3:20LV — NE LV ball · 2nd & 5NE 59%

(3:20) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs left tackle to NE 13 for -1 yards (90-S.Calhoun). FUMBLES (90-S.Calhoun), RECOVERED by NE-27-J.Jackson at NE 13.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 3:20LV +11% win prob(3:20) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs left tackle to NE 13 for -1 yards (90-S.Calhoun). FUMBLES (90-S.Calhoun), RECOVERED by NE-27-J.Jackson at NE 13.
Q3 · 10:48LV +10% win prob(10:48) 2-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q2 · 12:10LV +10% win prob(12:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 40 for -8 yards (50-C.Winovich). FUMBLES (50-C.Winovich) [50-C.Winovich], RECOVERED by NE-93-L.Guy at LV 42. 93-L.Guy to LV 42 for no gain (66-G.Jackson). Penalty on LV-76-J.Simpson, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
Q1 · 2:08LV +9% win prob(2:08) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 34-R.Burkhead INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Abram at NE 38. 24-J.Abram to NE 14 for 24 yards (69-S.Mason).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Patriots
Offensive plays	56	65
Total yards	375	409 (edge)
Yards per play	6.7 (edge)	6.3
Expected points added / play	-0.07	0.14 (edge)
Success rate	52% (edge)	49%
Dropback rate	64%	48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06 (edge)	-0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11	0.35 (edge)
Third downs	3/9 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

24/32, 261 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-2.3 expected points added · +9.9% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Cam NewtonQB

17/28, 162 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-4.5 expected points added · -7.7% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Sony MichelRB

9 att, 117 yds, 0 TD

5.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

16 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

-5.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Hunter RenfrowWR

6/9 for 84 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Rex BurkheadRB

7/10 for 49 yds, 1 TD

36% of team targets · -2.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	5	4	1:30	Punt
2	LV	LV 30	5	18	1:34	Punt
3	NE	NE 22	7	9	4:14	Punt
4	LV	LV 10	8	77	4:33	Fumble
5	NE	NE 13	4	16	1:16	Interception
6	LV	NE 14	4	8	1:35	Turnover on downs
7	NE	NE 25	10	45	2:46	Turnover on downs
8	LV	LV 25	3	17	0:30	Fumble
9	NE	LV 42	9	37	4:06	Turnover on downs
10	LV	LV 25	6	17	2:18	Punt
11	NE	NE 14	13	86	5:04	Touchdown
12	LV	LV 25	6	47	0:28	Touchdown
13	NE	NE 25	2	0	0:06	End of half
14	LV	LV 25	9	48	4:17	Turnover on downs
15	NE	NE 31	8	69	4:02	Touchdown
16	LV	LV 23	5	6	1:37	Punt
17	NE	NE 25	7	61	3:36	Turnover on downs
18	LV	LV 25	12	68	5:06	Turnover on downs
19	NE	NE 14	12	81	6:05	Touchdown
20	LV	LV 6	2	-6	0:08	Defensive touchdown
21	LV	LV 25	12	75	3:15	Touchdown
22	NE	LV 45	4	1	1:54	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 86 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	24/32	261	2	0	2	-2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Jacobs	16	71	4.4	-5.8
Devontae Booker	3	31	10.3	2.6
Jalen Richard	1	14	14.0	1.1
Derek Carr	2	10	5.0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Hunter Renfrow	6	9	84	1	28%	4.9
Bryan Edwards	2	3	48	0	9%	2.7
Nelson Agholor	2	3	32	0	9%	0.5
Zay Jones	3	3	32	0	9%	1.7
Foster Moreau	2	2	25	1	6%	3.6
Josh Jacobs	3	4	12	0	13%	-0.8
Alec Ingold	1	1	11	0	3%	1.2
Darren Waller	2	4	9	0	13%	-1.5
Jalen Richard	3	3	8	0	9%	-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Nicholas Morrow	6	1	0	0
Maurice Hurst	5	1	0	0
Lamarcus Joyner	6	0	0	0
Cory Littleton	3	2	0	0
Nevin Lawson	3	1	0	0
Raekwon McMillan	2	1	0	0
Clelin Ferrell	3	0	0	0
Johnathan Abram	2	1	1	1
Erik Harris	3	0	0	0
Daniel Ross	2	0	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	17/28	162	1	1	2	-4.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Sony Michel	9	117	13.0	0	5.2
Rex Burkhead	6	49	8.2	2	6.8
J.J. Taylor	11	43	3.9	0	2.0
Cam Newton	9	27	3.0	0	-2.1
Isaiah Zuber	1	13	13.0	0	0.9
N'Keal Harry	1	2	2.0	0	-0.3
Julian Edelman	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rex Burkhead	7	10	49	1	36%	-2.3
N'Keal Harry	2	4	34	0	14%	1.5
Damiere Byrd	3	3	27	0	11%	1.5
Sony Michel	2	2	23	0	7%	1.6
Julian Edelman	2	6	23	0	21%	-2.5
Jakob Johnson	1	1	6	0	4%	0.3
J.J. Taylor	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.8
Ryan Izzo	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jonathan Jones	5	3	0.0	2
Adrian Phillips	4	3	0.0	0
J.C. Jackson	5	0	0.0	1
Terrence Brooks	2	2	0.0	0
Shilique Calhoun	2	1	0.5	0
Adam Butler	1	2	0.0	0
Deatrich Wise	1	2	0.5	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	3	0	0.0	1
Devin McCourty	1	2	0.0	2
John Simon	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -7
Closing total: 47
LV moneyline: +266
NE moneyline: -311

Patriots closed -7 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 47; the game landed 56 — over by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 73°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Ronald Torbert
Rest: LV 6 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Jon Gruden vs Bill Belichick