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Las Vegas Raiders 20 at New England Patriots 36. Final.
Patriots -7 ✓O 47 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 3
New England Patriots 36, Raiders 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 3:20, 2nd and 5, on Josh Jacobs — 10.6 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:20 · 2nd and 5
Josh Jacobs
Patriots
(3:20) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs left tackle to NE 13 for -1 yards (90-S.Calhoun). FUMBLES (90-S.Calhoun), RECOVERED by NE-27-J.Jackson at NE 13.
Patriots closed -7 and covered, winning by 16.
New England Patriots 36–20. Biggest swing: Q1 3:20, Patriots +10.6% win probability on one snap.
10.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Derek CarrPatriotsQ2 12:10(12:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 40 for -8 yards (50-C.Winovich). FUMBLES (50-C.Winovich) [50-C.Winovich], RECOVERED by NE-93-L.Guy at LV 42. 93-L.Guy to LV 42 for no gain (66-G.Jackson). Penalty on LV-76-J.Simpson, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
9.5pts
Daniel CarlsonPatriotsQ3 10:48(10:48) 2-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
9.6pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.35 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.11 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — 1 giveaway, against Raiders at 3 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.07 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Raiders at 8 chunk plays.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Raiders162 of 173 plays carry both curves
(3:20) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs left tackle to NE 13 for -1 yards (90-S.Calhoun). FUMBLES (90-S.Calhoun), RECOVERED by NE-27-J.Jackson at NE 13.
Swing +10.6 for PatriotsExpected points +5.19 for PatriotsThe model had Raiders 21 points higher than the market did.play 29
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 3:20LV +11% win prob(3:20) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs left tackle to NE 13 for -1 yards (90-S.Calhoun). FUMBLES (90-S.Calhoun), RECOVERED by NE-27-J.Jackson at NE 13.
3rd · 10:48LV +10% win prob(10:48) 2-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.
2nd · 12:10LV +10% win prob(12:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 40 for -8 yards (50-C.Winovich). FUMBLES (50-C.Winovich) [50-C.Winovich], RECOVERED by NE-93-L.Guy at LV 42. 93-L.Guy to LV 42 for no gain (66-G.Jackson). Penalty on LV-76-J.Simpson, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
1st · 2:08LV +9% win prob(2:08) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 34-R.Burkhead INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Abram at NE 38. 24-J.Abram to NE 14 for 24 yards (69-S.Mason).
3rd · 12:58NE +8% win prob(12:58) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 89-B.Edwards to NE 26 for 34 yards (30-J.McCourty).
1st · 12:06NE +7% win prob(12:06) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to NE 11, Center-47-T.Sieg. 42-J.Taylor to NE 22 for 11 yards (22-K.Nixon).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Folk's 23-yard field goal with 7:59 left in the 2nd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st0:20Daniel Carlson·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+33–0
2nd12:35Nick Folk·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+33–3
2nd7:59Nick Folk·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.CardonaLead never changed again+33–6
Patriots ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Raiders: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.14Patriots: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.06Raiders: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.09Patriots: −0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Raiders: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.35Patriots: +0.35 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 56 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Patriots’s 65 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 5, Patriots 6.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's early-down pass rate turned over: 69.6% in week 2 against 43.6% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · +0.7 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Patriots16.7%
inside their normal wobble · +4.5 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was NE's sack or hit rate, 16.7% against a season mean of 12.2% — and NE swings 6.7 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
76John SimpsonOG · Every snap100%59 snaps
74Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%59 snaps
66Gabe JacksonG · Every snap100%59 snaps
71Denzelle GoodT · Every snap100%59 snaps
4Derek CarrQB · Every snap100%59 snaps
61Rodney HudsonC · Every snap100%59 snaps
83Darren WallerTE · Full-time95%56 snaps
15Nelson AgholorWR · Full-time85%50 snaps
13Hunter RenfrowWR · Heavy rotation66%39 snaps
28Josh JacobsRB · Heavy rotation59%35 snaps
12Zay JonesWR · Rotational46%27 snaps
89Bryan EdwardsWR · Rotational41%24 snaps
30Jalen RichardRB · Rotational34%20 snaps
87Foster MoreauTE · Rotational25%15 snaps
82Jason WittenTE · Rotational25%15 snaps
45Alec IngoldRB · Situational15%9 snaps
23Devontae BookerRB · Situational7%4 snaps
85Derek CarrierTE · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Amik RobertsonCBMadre HarperCBKendal VickersDENick KwiatkoskiILBSam YoungTTrent BrownTHenry Ruggs IIIWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Jacobs left−15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(3:20) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs left tackle to NE 13 for -1 yards (90-S.Calhoun). FUMBLES (90-S.Calhoun), RECOVERED by NE-27-J.Jackson at NE 13.
Q1 3:20 · Raiders · 2nd & 5 at NE 12 · lost 1 · -5.19 EP · −15.4% win probability
160 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 86 yards from the NE 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
46%
Yards
781
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.0255%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.2872%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR19+0.4326%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.2738%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.6657%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.5843%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 29
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 43
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Patriots 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Raiders 10 to the Patriots 12
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw8.1 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Patriots 13 to the Patriots 29
Raiders3Patriots0
Field goal5 plays, from the Patriots 14 to the Patriots 6
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
Raiders3Patriots3
Field goal8 plays, from the Patriots 34 to the Raiders 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 48
Raiders3Patriots6
Field goal9 plays, from the Raiders 42 to the Raiders 5
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 42
Raiders3Patriots12
Raiders3Patriots13
Touchdown14 plays, from the Patriots 14 to the Raiders 11
Raiders9Patriots13
Raiders10Patriots13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Patriots 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
The period ended7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 40
Drive ended2 plays, from the Patriots 26 to the Patriots 22
Drive ended2 plays, from the Patriots 37 to the Raiders 25
No good1 play
Raiders10Patriots19
Raiders10Patriots20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Raiders 15 to the Raiders 5
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 23 to the Raiders 29
Raiders10Patriots23
Field goal7 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Raiders 13
The period ended5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Patriots 49
4th quarter43 plays
Raiders13Patriots23
Field goal9 plays, from the Patriots 38 to the Patriots 7
Raiders13Patriots29
Touchdown13 plays, from the Patriots 14 to the Raiders 2
Raiders13Patriots35
Touchdown2 plays
Raiders13Patriots36
Raiders19Patriots36
Raiders20Patriots36
Touchdown13 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Patriots 13
The period ended5 plays, from the Raiders 45 to the Raiders 44
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -7
Closing total
47
Raiders moneyline
+266
Patriots moneyline
-311
Patriots closed -7 and covered, winning by 16.
Total closed 47; the game landed 56 — over by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 77°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the south; 0.01 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Ronald Torbert
Rest
Raiders 6 days · Patriots 7 days
Coaches
Jon Gruden vs Bill Belichick
2nd · 0:09NE +7% win prob(:09) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 87-F.Moreau for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NE-70-A.Butler, Defensive Offside, declined.
2nd · 13:41NE +6% win prob(13:41) 42-J.Taylor right end to LV 43 for 5 yards (73-M.Hurst). PENALTY on LV-98-M.Crosby, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at LV 43.
