2020 Week 3 · Thu, Sep 24, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Miami DolphinsWinner

Jacksonville Jaguars

JAX -3 upsetU 49 ✓Jaguars closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Miami Dolphins 31–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:02, MIA +6% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 6:02MIA — JAX JAX ball · 4th & 4MIA 58%

(6:02) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 6:02MIA +6% win prob(6:02) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.
Q2 · 8:17JAX +6% win prob(8:17) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 11-D.Parker to JAX 35 for 8 yards (37-T.Herndon) [45-K.Chaisson].
Q2 · 6:10JAX +6% win prob(6:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete short left to 22-M.Breida. PENALTY on JAX-45-K.Chaisson, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 30 - No Play.
Q2 · 1:15MIA +5% win prob(1:15) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at MIA 46 for -10 yards (51-K.Grugier-Hill).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Jaguars
Offensive plays	56	63
Total yards	295	318 (edge)
Yards per play	5.3 (edge)	5.0
Expected points added / play	0.18 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	45%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	43%	78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.43 (edge)	-0.17
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.11
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	19	19
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Jaguars outgained Dolphins 318–295 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Gardner MinshewQB

30/42, 275 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-9.6 expected points added · +4.1% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Ryan FitzpatrickQB

18/20, 160 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.7 expected points added · +24.6% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Myles GaskinRB

22 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

-3.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

11 att, 46 yds, 2 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

James RobinsonRB

6/6 for 83 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 2.5 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

DeVante ParkerWR

5/5 for 69 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 16	14	84	6:51	Touchdown
2	JAX	JAX 25	6	30	2:15	Punt
3	MIA	MIA 20	7	60	3:17	Touchdown
4	JAX	JAX 25	11	75	4:33	Touchdown
5	MIA	MIA 25	13	70	7:06	Touchdown
6	JAX	JAX 25	10	14	4:48	Turnover on downs
7	MIA	MIA 46	4	4	0:34	Punt
8	JAX	JAX 12	6	12	0:36	Punt
9	JAX	JAX 25	7	17	2:42	Punt
10	MIA	MIA 24	8	36	5:25	Punt
11	JAX	JAX 3	5	15	2:49	Fumble
12	MIA	JAX 5	5	2	2:03	Touchdown
13	JAX	JAX 25	8	57	2:23	Turnover on downs
14	MIA	MIA 23	4	-1	2:24	Punt
15	JAX	JAX 49	11	50	3:11	Touchdown
16	MIA	MIA 26	6	21	3:17	Punt
17	JAX	JAX 21	4	-1	0:59	Turnover on downs
18	MIA	JAX 20	4	2	0:58	Turnover on downs
19	JAX	JAX 25	6	49	1:22	Interception
20	MIA	MIA 3	4	17	2:27	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 84 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Fitzpatrick	18/20	160	2	0	1	8.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Myles Gaskin	22	66	3.0	0	-3.8
Ryan Fitzpatrick	7	38	5.4	1	4.8
Jakeem Grant	1	29	29.0	0	2.1
Matt Breida	3	4	1.3	0	-1.7
Jordan Howard	3	1	0.3	1	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVante Parker	5	5	69	0	25%	5.2
Myles Gaskin	5	5	29	0	25%	0.7
Jakeem Grant	1	1	19	0	5%	1.3
Mike Gesicki	1	3	15	1	15%	0.6
Isaiah Ford	2	2	14	0	10%	1.0
Durham Smythe	1	1	7	0	5%	0.3
Preston Williams	2	2	7	1	10%	2.3
Ryan Fitzpatrick	1	1	0	0	5%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kamu Grugier-Hill	6	2	1.0	0
Jerome Baker	2	5	0.0	1
Elandon Roberts	3	4	0.0	0
Jamal Perry	3	3	0.0	0
Brandon Jones	3	2	0.0	0
Eric Rowe	2	3	0.0	0
Zach Sieler	1	2	0.5	0
Noah Igbinoghene	2	1	0.0	1
Kyle Van Noy	1	2	1.0	0
Bobby McCain	2	1	0.0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Gardner Minshew	30/42	275	0	1	4	-9.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Robinson	11	46	4.2	2	0.4
Gardner Minshew	3	22	7.3	0	1.1
Chris Thompson	2	3	1.5	0	-1.7
Laviska Shenault Jr.	1	1	1.0	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
James Robinson	6	6	83	14%	2.5
Keelan Cole	4	6	43	14%	3.1
Chris Thompson	5	6	35	14%	1.1
Chris Conley	3	8	34	19%	-4.3
Laviska Shenault Jr.	5	6	33	14%	-0.4
James O'Shaughnessy	3	4	29	10%	1.6
Tyler Eifert	2	3	11	7%	0.2
Dede Westbrook	1	1	4	2%	-0.0
Collin Johnson	1	2	3	5%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Myles Jack	7	4	0.0
Joe Schobert	6	2	0.0
Josh Jones	7	1	0.0
Tre Herndon	5	0	0.0
Brandon Rusnak	1	2	0.0
Andrew Wingard	3	0	0.0
D.J. Hayden	2	1	0.0
Cassius Marsh	3	0	0.0
Josh Hines-Allen	2	0	1.0
Davon Hamilton	1	1	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: JAX -3
Closing total: 49
MIA moneyline: +124
JAX moneyline: -138

Jaguars closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49; the game landed 44 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 81°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: MIA 4 days · JAX 4 days
Coaches: Brian Flores vs Doug Marrone