For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Miami Dolphins 31 at Jacksonville Jaguars 13. Final.
Jaguars -3 upsetU 49 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 3
Miami Dolphins 31, Jaguars 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 6:02, 4th and 4 — 6.2 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:02 · 4th and 4
Unnamed on the sheet
Dolphins
(6:02) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.
6.2
Jaguars closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Miami Dolphins 31–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:02, Dolphins +6.2% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
DeVante ParkerDolphinsQ2 8:17(8:17) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 11-D.Parker to JAX 35 for 8 yards (37-T.Herndon) [45-K.Chaisson].
5.8pts
Ryan FitzpatrickDolphinsQ2 6:10(6:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete short left to 22-M.Breida. PENALTY on JAX-45-K.Chaisson, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 30 - No Play.
5.6pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.43 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.17 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — no giveaways, against Jaguars at 2 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Dolphins won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Jaguars at 3 of 10 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Dolphins won this one — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.16 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Dolphins156 of 165 plays carry both curves
(6:02) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.
Swing −6.2 for JaguarsExpected points −1.08 for JaguarsThe model had Dolphins 5 points higher than the market did.play 21
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 6:02MIA +6% win prob(6:02) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.
2nd · 8:17JAX +6% win prob(8:17) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 11-D.Parker to JAX 35 for 8 yards (37-T.Herndon) [45-K.Chaisson].
2nd · 6:10JAX +6% win prob(6:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete short left to 22-M.Breida. PENALTY on JAX-45-K.Chaisson, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 30 - No Play.
2nd · 1:15MIA +5% win prob(1:15) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at MIA 46 for -10 yards (51-K.Grugier-Hill).
2nd · 10:20JAX +5% win prob(10:20) 14-R.Fitzpatrick right end to JAX 47 for 2 yards (44-M.Jack).
2nd · 13:10JAX +5% win prob(13:10) (Shotgun) 30-J.Robinson up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:34
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Preston Williams's 3-yard touchdown catch with 8:15 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:15Preston Williams·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Fitzpatrickfrom Ryan FitzpatrickLead never changed again+77–0
4th9:07James Robinson·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+628–13
4th3:54Jason Sanders·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap B.Ferguson+331–13
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryJaguars
Dolphins6–2Jaguars
295Total yards318
5.3Yards per play5.0
45%Success rate46%
54%Third-down rate30%
4Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays4
19First downs19
1Sacks taken4
0Turnovers2
The read
Dolphins ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Dolphins: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.16Jaguars: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.43Dolphins: +0.43 expected points added per play
−0.17Jaguars: −0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Dolphins: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.11Jaguars: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 56 snaps at a 43% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 63 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 5, Jaguars 2.
NoteJaguars outgained Dolphins 318-295 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's early-down pass rate turned over: 70.7% in week 2 against 38.1% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points.
MIA's pass rate over expected turned over: +8.6 pts in week 2 against −6.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · +2.8 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Jaguars20.8%
leaned — got home · +7.6 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.04× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 38.1%, 19.6 points below their season mean of 57.7% and 1.5 times their own 12.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Robinson up+7% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(13:10) (Shotgun) 30-J.Robinson up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 13:10 · Jaguars · 1st & 10 at MIA 11 · gained 11 · +1.90 EP · +7.1% win probability
154 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 84 yards from the MIA 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
43%
Yards
612
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.1982%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24+0.0450%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.7457%
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10-0.420%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.1250%
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Jaguars0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Dolphins6Jaguars0
Dolphins7Jaguars0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Dolphins 16 to the Jaguars 3
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Dolphins 45
Dolphins13Jaguars0
Dolphins14Jaguars0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Jaguars 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Dolphins 43
2nd quarter46 plays
Dolphins14Jaguars6
Dolphins14Jaguars7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 27 to the Dolphins 11
Dolphins20Jaguars7
Dolphins21Jaguars7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Jaguars 15
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Dolphins 35
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 46 to midfield
Punt10 plays, from the Jaguars 12 to the Jaguars 29
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 42
Punt9 plays, from the Dolphins 24 to the Jaguars 40
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Jaguars 3 to the Jaguars 22
Dolphins27Jaguars7
Dolphins28Jaguars7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jaguars 5 to the Jaguars 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Dolphins 28
4th quarter48 plays
Turnover on downs3 plays
Punt4 plays
Dolphins28Jaguars13
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jaguars 49 to the Dolphins 1
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 26 to the Dolphins 32
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Jaguars 21 to the Jaguars 29
Dolphins31Jaguars13
Field goal8 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 13
Intercepted6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Dolphins 26
The period ended5 plays, from the Dolphins 3 to the Dolphins 20
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
