2020 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 2020 · Lucas Oil Stadium

New York Jets

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

IND -12.5 ✓U 44 ✓DomeColts closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 29.

Indianapolis Colts 36–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:35, NYJ +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:35NYJ — IND NYJ ball · 3rd & 6IND 86%

(12:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 86-L.Cager INTERCEPTED by 27-X.Rhodes at NYJ 44. 27-X.Rhodes for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:35NYJ +11% win prob(12:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 86-L.Cager INTERCEPTED by 27-X.Rhodes at NYJ 44. 27-X.Rhodes for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 5:23IND +8% win prob(5:23) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 10-B.Berrios for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 5:29NYJ +5% win prob(5:29) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 86-L.Cager INTERCEPTED by 27-X.Rhodes [96-D.Autry] at IND -6. Touchback.
Q1 · 13:47IND +5% win prob(13:47) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 10-B.Berrios. PENALTY on IND-23-K.Moore, Defensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 22 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Colts
Offensive plays	60	54
Total yards	260	353 (edge)
Yards per play	4.3	6.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.42	0.13 (edge)
Success rate	35%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.61	0.38 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14	-0.09 (edge)
Third downs	3/12	3/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.42.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Philip RiversQB

17/21, 217 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

9.9 expected points added · +8.7% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

17/29, 168 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-22.9 expected points added · -4.0% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

13 att, 59 yds, 1 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Frank GoreRB

15 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Braxton BerriosWR

4/4 for 64 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Receiving · IND

T.Y. HiltonWR

3/3 for 52 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 21	6	5	2:35	Defensive touchdown
2	NYJ	NYJ 12	16	88	7:13	Touchdown
3	IND	IND 25	13	72	5:59	Touchdown
4	NYJ	NYJ 25	6	19	2:44	Punt
5	IND	IND 23	6	53	2:51	Turnover on downs
6	NYJ	NYJ 41	8	52	3:14	Interception
7	IND	IND 20	7	45	3:07	Punt
8	NYJ	NYJ 7	7	24	1:33	Punt
9	IND	IND 41	4	36	0:44	Turnover on downs
10	IND	IND 25	7	25	3:05	Punt
11	NYJ	NYJ 8	4	7	1:27	Punt
12	IND	IND 45	11	55	5:07	Touchdown
13	NYJ	NYJ 25	6	19	2:04	Punt
14	IND	IND 14	5	16	1:52	Punt
15	NYJ	NYJ 25	3	6	1:25	Defensive touchdown
16	NYJ	NYJ 9	9	39	5:25	Punt
17	IND	IND 29	7	23	3:24	Punt
18	NYJ	NYJ 4	3	-4	1:21	Turnover on downs
19	IND	IND 44	6	28	2:46	Turnover on downs
20	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	5	0:51	Turnover on downs
21	IND	NYJ 30	2	0	1:13	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 88 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	17/29	168	1	3	2	-22.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Frank Gore	15	57	3.8	-0.8
La'Mical Perine	7	24	3.4	-2.4
Sam Darnold	5	20	4.0	0.8
Kalen Ballage	2	8	4.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Braxton Berrios	4	4	64	1	15%	7.3
Kalen Ballage	5	5	44	0	19%	1.4
Lawrence Cager	2	4	35	0	15%	-11.6
Christopher Herndon	3	5	21	0	19%	-1.8
Frank Gore	1	1	5	0	4%	-0.1
Chris Hogan	0	3	0	0	12%	-8.7
Ryan Griffin	0	2	0	0	8%	-2.1
La'Mical Perine	2	2	-1	0	8%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Bradley McDougald	5	5	0
Marcus Maye	3	4	0
Avery Williamson	3	4	0
Blessuan Austin	6	0	0
Brian Poole	5	0	0
Neville Hewitt	1	3	0
Henry Anderson	2	0	0
Tarell Basham	1	1	1
Quinnen Williams	2	0	0
Steve McLendon	2	0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	17/21	217	1	0	0	9.9
Jacoby Brissett	2/4	17	0	0	0	-0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	13	59	4.5	1	1.5
Jordan Wilkins	9	39	4.3	0	-2.5
Nyheim Miller-Hines	7	21	3.0	0	-1.5
Jacoby Brissett	2	0	0.0	0	-3.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
T.Y. Hilton	3	3	52	0	12%	5.7
Mo Alie-Cox	3	3	50	1	12%	2.6
Nyheim Miller-Hines	4	5	40	0	20%	0.6
Zach Pascal	2	4	34	0	16%	-0.4
Michael Pittman	3	4	26	0	16%	2.5
Daurice Fountain	2	2	23	0	8%	1.4
Jordan Wilkins	1	1	6	0	4%	0.2
Jonathan Taylor	1	1	3	0	4%	-0.4
Ashton Dulin	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.6
Noah Togiai	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shaquille Leonard	5	4	0.0	0	1
Anthony Walker	5	1	0.0	0	0
Khari Willis	4	2	0.0	0	0
Bobby Okereke	3	1	0.0	0	0
Tavon Wilson	4	0	0.0	0	1
Denico Autry	3	1	0.0	0	0
T.J. Carrie	3	1	0.0	1	1
DeForest Buckner	1	2	0.0	0	0
Grover Stewart	2	0	0.0	0	0
Kenny Moore	2	0	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -12.5
Closing total: 44
NYJ moneyline: +491
IND moneyline: -630

Colts closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 29.

Total closed 44; the game landed 43 — under by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: NYJ 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Adam Gase vs Frank Reich