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San Francisco 49ers 36 at New York Giants 9. Final.
49ers -3 ✓O 44 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 3
San Francisco 49ers 36, Giants 9 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 6:31, 1st and 10 — 12.8 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:31 · 1st and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
49ers
(6:31) 8-D.Jones FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYG 42, RECOVERED by SF-96-D.Jordan at NYG 42.
12.8
49ers closed -3 and covered, winning by 27.
San Francisco 49ers 36–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:31, 49ers +12.8% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ross Dwelley49ersQ2 3:27(3:27) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 82-R.Dwelley to NYG 32 for 20 yards (20-J.Love, 54-B.Martinez).
7.7pts
Fred Warner49ersQ2 1:03(1:03) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 88-E.Engram INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner at NYG 32. 54-F.Warner to NYG 26 for 6 yards (88-E.Engram). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 88-E.Engram INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner at NYG 32. 54-F.Warner to NYG 32 for no gain (88-E.Engram).
7.6pts
What separated them
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.31 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.32 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — -0.05 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.67 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 3 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — +0.62 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.18 expected points per dropback.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on 49ers159 of 168 plays carry both curves
(6:31) 8-D.Jones FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYG 42, RECOVERED by SF-96-D.Jordan at NYG 42.
Swing −12.8 for GiantsExpected points −5.88 for GiantsThe model had Giants 14 points higher than the market did.play 19
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 6:31SF +13% win prob(6:31) 8-D.Jones FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYG 42, RECOVERED by SF-96-D.Jordan at NYG 42.
2nd · 3:27NYG +8% win prob(3:27) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 82-R.Dwelley to NYG 32 for 20 yards (20-J.Love, 54-B.Martinez).
2nd · 1:03SF +8% win prob(1:03) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 88-E.Engram INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner at NYG 32. 54-F.Warner to NYG 26 for 6 yards (88-E.Engram). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right intended for 88-E.Engram INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner at NYG 32. 54-F.Warner to NYG 32 for no gain (88-E.Engram).
1st · 11:18SF +7% win prob(11:18) 4-N.Mullens sacked at NYG 48 for -9 yards (54-B.Martinez).
2nd · 13:35NYG +7% win prob(13:35) 5-G.Gano 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
2nd · 4:31NYG +7% win prob(4:31) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 81-J.Reed to NYG 49 for 7 yards (30-D.Holmes; 23-L.Ryan). PENALTY on NYG-30-D.Holmes, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at SF 44 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jerick McKinnon's 10-yard rushing touchdown with 1:13 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:48Robbie Gould·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap K.Nelson+33–0
1st1:06Robbie Gould·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap K.Nelson+36–0
2nd13:35Graham Gano·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+36–3
2nd7:30Graham Gano·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+36–6
2nd1:13Jerick McKinnon·10-yd TD run10-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+713–6
2nd0:06Robbie Gould·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap K.Nelson+316–6
3rd8:11Graham Gano·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+316–9
49ers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.67 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.3149ers: +0.31 expected points added per play
−0.32Giants: −0.32 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.6249ers: +0.62 expected points added per play
−0.18Giants: −0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.0549ers: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.67Giants: −0.67 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 71 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Giants’s 49 at 71%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 6, Giants 0.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs -0.32.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's pass rate over expected turned over: −9.4 pts in week 2 against −2.0 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Giants23.1%
leaned — got home · +7.2 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 23.1%, 7.2 points above their season mean of 15.8% and 1.1 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Jones FUMBLES−16% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(6:31) 8-D.Jones FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYG 42, RECOVERED by SF-96-D.Jordan at NYG 42.
Q1 6:31 · Giants · 1st & 10 at NYG 47 · gained nothing · -5.88 EP · −16.2% win probability
157 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 92 yards from the SF 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
40%
Yards
651
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.1274%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR32+0.4144%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.5273%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.2240%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.2980%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
49ers0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
49ers3Giants0
Field goal11 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Giants 34
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Giants 47
49ers6Giants0
Field goal14 plays, from the Giants 42 to the Giants 4
The period ended4 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 38
2nd quarter53 plays
49ers6Giants3
Field goal5 plays, from the Giants 44 to the 49ers 34
No good11 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Giants 37
49ers6Giants6
Field goal7 plays, from the Giants 45 to the 49ers 24
49ers12Giants6
49ers13Giants6
Touchdown18 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Giants 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
49ers16Giants6
Field goal7 plays, from the Giants 32 to the Giants 6
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
49ers16Giants9
Field goal15 plays, from the Giants 18 to the 49ers 29
49ers22Giants9
49ers23Giants9
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Giants 19
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Giants 21 to the Giants 30
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter42 plays
49ers29Giants9
Touchdown4 plays, from the Giants 29 to the Giants 18
Punt9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 38
49ers35Giants9
49ers36Giants9
Touchdown17 plays, from the 49ers 8 to the Giants 2
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the 49ers 41
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -3
Closing total
44
49ers moneyline
-149
Giants moneyline
+134
49ers closed -3 and covered, winning by 27.
Total closed 44; the game landed 45 — over by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 76°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
49ers 7 days · Giants 7 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Joe Judge
2nd · 8:28NYG +7% win prob(8:28) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep right to 86-D.Slayton pushed ob at SF 30 for 23 yards (27-D.Johnson). Penalty on SF-90-K.Givens, Defensive Offside, declined.
3rd · 3:22NYG +6% win prob(3:22) 11-B.Aiyuk right end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
