2020 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 2020 · Empower Field at Mile High

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

Denver Broncos

TB -6 ✓U 42.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -6 and covered, winning by 18.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:51, TB +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:51TB — DEN DEN ball · 4th & 4TB 75%

(10:51) 6-S.Martin punt is BLOCKED by 79-P.O'Connor, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, RECOVERED by TB-79-P.O'Connor at DEN 14. 79-P.O'Connor to DEN 10 for 4 yards (46-J.Bobenmoyer). Penalty on DEN-53-A.Calitro, Offensive Holding,

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:51TB +9% win prob(10:51) 6-S.Martin punt is BLOCKED by 79-P.O'Connor, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, RECOVERED by TB-79-P.O'Connor at DEN 14. 79-P.O'Connor to DEN 10 for 4 yards (46-J.Bobenmoyer). Penalty on DEN-53-A.Calitro, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q2 · 10:47DEN +6% win prob(10:47) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 10-S.Miller to DEN 26 for 47 yards (31-J.Simmons).
Q2 · 11:38DEN +5% win prob(11:38) 8-B.McManus 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q1 · 1:09DEN +3% win prob(1:09) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to DEN 24 for 10 yards (47-J.Jewell).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Broncos
Offensive plays	62	59
Total yards	354 (edge)	226
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	3.8
Expected points added / play	0.19 (edge)	-0.28
Success rate	48% (edge)	31%
Dropback rate	66%	80%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.27 (edge)	-0.25
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.36
Third downs	8/16 (edge)	5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	11
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	6
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.28.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

25/38, 297 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

11.6 expected points added · +5.4% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Jeff DriskelQB

17/30, 176 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-10.6 expected points added · -9.8% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Ronald JonesRB

13 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Melvin GordonRB

8 att, 26 yds, 0 TD

-2.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Scott MillerWR

3/5 for 83 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

5/6 for 64 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 7.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	8	28	4:19	Punt
2	TB	DEN 10	4	10	0:43	Touchdown
3	DEN	DEN 25	5	-1	1:02	Punt
4	TB	TB 28	6	25	3:02	Punt
5	DEN	DEN 16	4	2	0:59	Punt
6	TB	TB 46	10	31	4:40	Turnover on downs
7	DEN	DEN 25	8	37	3:42	Turnover on downs
8	TB	TB 25	14	75	4:58	Touchdown
9	DEN	DEN 25	5	-5	1:39	Punt
10	TB	TB 44	7	56	2:37	Touchdown
11	DEN	DEN 25	10	64	2:05	Touchdown
12	TB	TB 25	2	0	0:14	End of half
13	TB	TB 25	8	26	2:42	Punt
14	DEN	DEN 8	4	-3	0:34	Turnover on downs
15	TB	TB 25	6	28	2:51	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 15	4	8	1:04	Punt
17	TB	TB 33	4	19	1:52	Punt
18	DEN	DEN 20	6	35	2:35	Interception
19	TB	TB 45	7	38	3:22	Turnover on downs
20	DEN	DEN 25	8	6	2:49	Punt
21	TB	TB 28	4	18	2:15	Punt
22	DEN	DEN 27	11	55	6:10	Interception
23	TB	TB 29	7	28	3:46	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	25/38	297	3	0	2	11.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ronald Jones	13	53	4.1	1.2
Leonard Fournette	7	15	2.1	0.3
Tom Brady	5	0	0.0	-3.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Scott Miller	3	5	83	0	14%	5.6
Chris Godwin	5	6	64	1	17%	7.7
O.J. Howard	3	4	49	0	11%	2.2
Rob Gronkowski	6	7	48	0	19%	3.8
LeSean McCoy	2	4	24	0	11%	-3.0
Ronald Jones	2	4	20	0	11%	-0.2
Leonard Fournette	2	2	7	0	6%	-1.0
Mike Evans	2	4	2	2	11%	0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jamel Dean	6	2	0.0	0	0
Devin White	3	4	0.0	0	0
Antoine Winfield	4	2	1.0	0	1
Shaquil Barrett	5	1	2.0	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	4	1	1.0	0	0
Mike Edwards	3	1	0.0	1	1
Lavonte David	2	2	0.0	1	2
Vita Vea	1	2	1.0	0	0
Carlton Davis	3	0	0.0	0	0
Ndamukong Suh	3	0	0.0	0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jeff Driskel	17/30	176	1	1	5	-10.6
Brett Rypien	8/9	53	0	1	1	-2.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Melvin Gordon	8	26	3.3	-2.5
Jeff Driskel	3	14	4.7	2.0
Royce Freeman	2	4	2.0	-1.3
K.J. Hamler	1	-2	-2.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jerry Jeudy	5	9	55	0	24%	-4.5
Noah Fant	5	10	46	0	26%	-3.8
Tim Patrick	4	4	43	1	11%	5.7
Royce Freeman	2	2	31	0	5%	2.8
K.J. Hamler	3	5	30	0	13%	-2.7
Melvin Gordon	4	6	12	0	16%	-3.4
Diontae Spencer	1	1	7	0	3%	0.6
Jake Butt	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Justin Simmons	7	1	0.0	0
Josey Jewell	5	2	0.0	0
Kareem Jackson	4	2	0.0	0
Michael Ojemudia	3	1	0.0	0
Jurrell Casey	1	3	0.0	0
Jeremiah Attaochu	4	0	0.0	0
Shelby Harris	3	1	2.0	1
Bradley Chubb	3	0	0.0	0
Alexander Johnson	2	1	0.0	0
Bryce Callahan	3	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -6
Closing total: 42.5
TB moneyline: -264
DEN moneyline: +230

Buccaneers closed -6 and covered, winning by 18.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 38 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 55°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: TB 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Bruce Arians vs Vic Fangio