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2020 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 2020 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
BuccaneersTampa Bay28
BY 18final margin
BroncosDenver10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 at Denver Broncos 10. Final.
Buccaneers -6 ✓U 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28, Broncos 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 10:51, 4th and 4 — 9.2 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:51 · 4th and 4
Unnamed on the sheet
Buccaneers
(10:51) 6-S.Martin punt is BLOCKED by 79-P.O'Connor, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, RECOVERED by TB-79-P.O'Connor at DEN 14. 79-P.O'Connor to DEN 10 for 4 yards (46-J.Bobenmoyer). Penalty on DEN-53-A.Calitro, Offensive Holding, declined.
Buccaneers closed -6 and covered, winning by 18.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:51, Buccaneers +9.2% win probability on one snap.
9.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Brandon McManusBroncosQ2 11:38(11:38) 8-B.McManus 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.
4.6pts
Scott MillerBuccaneersQ2 10:47(10:47) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 10-S.Miller to DEN 26 for 47 yards (31-J.Simmons).
6.0pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.28 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — no giveaways, against Broncos at 2 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.36 expected points per carry.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Buccaneers165 of 172 plays carry both curves
(10:51) 6-S.Martin punt is BLOCKED by 79-P.O'Connor, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, RECOVERED by TB-79-P.O'Connor at DEN 14. 79-P.O'Connor to DEN 10 for 4 yards (46-J.Bobenmoyer). Penalty on DEN-53-A.Calitro, Offensive Holding,
Swing −9.2 for BroncosExpected points −4.97 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 24 points higher than the market did.play 10
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:51TB +9% win prob(10:51) 6-S.Martin punt is BLOCKED by 79-P.O'Connor, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, RECOVERED by TB-79-P.O'Connor at DEN 14. 79-P.O'Connor to DEN 10 for 4 yards (46-J.Bobenmoyer). Penalty on DEN-53-A.Calitro, Offensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 10:47DEN +6% win prob(10:47) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 10-S.Miller to DEN 26 for 47 yards (31-J.Simmons).
2nd · 11:38DEN +5% win prob(11:38) 8-B.McManus 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.
1st · 1:09DEN +3% win prob(1:09) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to DEN 24 for 10 yards (47-J.Jewell).
1st · 14:24TB +3% win prob(14:24) (Shotgun) 9-J.Driskel scrambles right end pushed ob at DEN 36 for 7 yards (45-D.White). PENALTY on DEN-68-E.Wilkinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 29 - No Play.
1st · 13:16DEN +3% win prob(13:16) (Shotgun) 9-J.Driskel scrambles right end to DEN 37 for 9 yards (35-J.Dean).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chris Godwin's 10-yard touchdown catch with 10:04 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:04Chris Godwin·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom BradyLead never changed again+77–0
1st0:19Ryan Succop·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+310–0
2nd11:38Brandon McManus·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+310–3
2nd6:37Mike Evans·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+717–3
2nd2:24Mike Evans·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady · kick blocked by J.Jones+623–3
2nd0:19Tim Patrick·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Jeff Driskelfrom Jeff Driskel+723–10
3rd11:51Shaquil Barrett·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+225–10
3rd0:00Ryan Succop·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+328–10
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryBroncos
Buccaneers9–0Broncos
354Total yards226
5.7Yards per play3.8
48%Success rate31%
50%Third-down rate36%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays3
17First downs11
2Sacks taken6
0Turnovers2
The read
Buccaneers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.19Buccaneers: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.28Broncos: −0.28 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.27Buccaneers: +0.27 expected points added per play
−0.25Broncos: −0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Buccaneers: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.36Broncos: −0.36 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 62 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Broncos’s 59 at 80%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 5, Broncos 2.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.28.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37 pts to 30 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Broncos14.6%
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 22.4 points above their season mean of 52.6% and 1.5 times their own 15.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass+12% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(10:47) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 10-S.Miller to DEN 26 for 47 yards (31-J.Simmons).
Q2 10:47 · Buccaneers · 3rd & 8 at TB 27 · gained 47 · +4.15 EP · +12.2% win probability
163 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 75 yards from the TB 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
35%
Yards
579
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.2378%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.0276%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.2958%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.270%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 43
Buccaneers6Broncos0
Buccaneers7Broncos0
Touchdown4 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Buccaneers 49
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 16 to the Broncos 18
Buccaneers10Broncos0
Field goal12 plays, from the Buccaneers 46 to the Broncos 24
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Buccaneers10Broncos3
Field goal6 plays, from the Broncos 27 to the Buccaneers 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Buccaneers16Broncos3
Buccaneers17Broncos3
Touchdown14 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Broncos 1
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 34
Buccaneers23Broncos3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 44 to the Broncos 1
Buccaneers23Broncos9
Buccaneers23Broncos10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Buccaneers 7
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Broncos 49
Buccaneers25Broncos10
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 43
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 15 to the Broncos 23
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Buccaneers 42
Intercepted6 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 48
Buccaneers28Broncos10
Field goal7 plays, from the Buccaneers 45 to the Broncos 14
4th quarter38 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 36
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Buccaneers 36
Intercepted15 plays, from the Broncos 27 to the Buccaneers 13
The period ended9 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Broncos 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Buccaneerscategory by categoryBroncos
Buccaneers6
Broncos0
