2020 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 2020 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Tennessee TitansWinner

Minnesota Vikings

TEN -3 no coverO 49.5 ✓DomeTitans closed -3, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Tennessee Titans 31–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 2:39, MIN +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 2:39TEN — MIN TEN ball · 1st & 10MIN 57%

(2:39) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 14-K.Raymond to MIN 4 for 61 yards (20-J.Gladney).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 2:39MIN +19% win prob(2:39) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 14-K.Raymond to MIN 4 for 61 yards (20-J.Gladney).
Q3 · 8:17MIN +18% win prob(8:17) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:48MIN +16% win prob(1:48) 3-S.Gostkowski 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
Q2 · 15:00TEN +14% win prob(15:00) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left intended for 15-N.Westbrook INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at MIN -4. 22-H.Smith to MIN 12 for 16 yards (15-N.Westbrook; 70-T.Sambrailo).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Vikings
Offensive plays	72	63
Total yards	445	464 (edge)
Yards per play	6.2	7.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.01	0.04 (edge)
Success rate	50% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	57%	49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02	0.15 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	-0.06
Third downs	3/13	4/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	23
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Vikings outgained Titans 464–445 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

23/37, 321 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-1.5 expected points added · +3.7% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

16/27, 251 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

3.2 expected points added · +0.1% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

22 att, 181 yds, 1 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

26 att, 119 yds, 2 TD

6.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

7/9 for 175 yds, 1 TD

36% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Kalif RaymondWR

3/3 for 118 yds, 0 TD

9% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 25	7	64	3:16	Turnover on downs
2	MIN	MIN 25	5	-4	1:26	Punt
3	TEN	TEN 29	6	13	2:41	Punt
4	MIN	MIN 33	2	12	0:44	Fumble
5	TEN	MIN 20	4	7	0:52	Turnover on downs
6	MIN	MIN 24	9	76	3:18	Touchdown
7	TEN	TEN 29	8	42	2:55	Interception
8	MIN	MIN 12	11	88	5:52	Touchdown
9	TEN	TEN 25	13	63	5:38	Turnover on downs
10	MIN	MIN 25	8	52	1:37	Turnover on downs
11	TEN	TEN 25	7	16	1:17	Punt
12	MIN	MIN 20	2	1	0:24	End of half
13	MIN	MIN 25	2	0	0:06	Defensive touchdown
14	TEN	MIN 41	4	-11	1:25	Punt
15	MIN	MIN 12	8	57	3:14	Turnover on downs
16	TEN	TEN 39	5	28	1:18	Turnover on downs
17	MIN	MIN 27	4	73	0:53	Touchdown
18	TEN	TEN 25	10	75	4:11	Touchdown
19	MIN	MIN 25	5	7	1:14	Punt
20	TEN	TEN 35	4	65	1:17	Touchdown
21	MIN	MIN 25	12	75	6:05	Touchdown
22	TEN	TEN 25	11	39	3:46	Turnover on downs
23	MIN	MIN 25	7	27	2:49	Punt
24	TEN	TEN 19	9	44	1:58	Turnover on downs
25	MIN	MIN 25	5	0	0:46	Interception
26	TEN	TEN 32	2	0	0:58	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 88 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	23/37	321	0	1	1	-1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	26	119	4.6	2	6.2
Ryan Tannehill	4	9	2.3	0	-1.7
Darrynton Evans	3	9	3.0	0	-0.8
Kalif Raymond	1	-3	-3.0	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Kalif Raymond	3	3	118	9%	8.2
Corey Davis	5	6	69	18%	5.2
Jonnu Smith	5	8	61	24%	0.2
Adam Humphries	4	7	41	21%	-2.3
MyCole Pruitt	2	2	16	6%	1.2
Derrick Henry	2	3	11	9%	-0.7
Jeremy McNichols	1	1	5	3%	-0.4
Ryan Tannehill	1	1	0	3%	-1.5
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	0	2	0	6%	-5.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jayon Brown	6	2	0.0	0	1
Rashaan Evans	4	3	0.0	0	0
Johnathan Joseph	7	0	0.0	1	1
Harold Landry	3	2	0.0	0	1
Jeffery Simmons	3	2	1.0	0	0
Kenny Vaccaro	4	1	0.0	0	0
Kevin Byard	1	3	0.0	0	1
Malcolm Butler	4	0	0.0	0	2
Kristian Fulton	2	0	1.0	0	0
DaQuan Jones	2	0	0.0	0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	16/27	251	3	2	2	3.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dalvin Cook	22	181	8.2	1	0.6
Alexander Mattison	8	27	3.4	0	-0.8
Kirk Cousins	2	14	7.0	0	-0.0
Adam Thielen	1	4	4.0	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	7	9	175	1	36%	9.3
Adam Thielen	3	5	29	1	20%	0.4
Dalvin Cook	2	5	18	0	20%	-0.9
C.J. Ham	1	2	11	0	8%	0.1
Kyle Rudolph	2	3	11	1	12%	0.0
Chad Beebe	1	1	7	0	4%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Eric Kendricks	5	5	0.0	0	1
Harrison Smith	3	5	0.0	1	1
Anthony Harris	6	2	0.0	0	1
Eric Wilson	4	3	1.0	0	0
Holton Hill	4	3	0.0	0	1
Jeff Gladney	5	0	0.0	0	1
Jaleel Johnson	2	2	0.0	0	0
Ifeadi Odenigbo	3	0	0.0	0	0
D.J. Wonnum	2	1	0.0	0	0
Shamar Stephen	3	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -3
Closing total: 49.5
TEN moneyline: -155
MIN moneyline: +139

Titans closed -3, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 61 — over by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: TEN 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Mike Zimmer