For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Titans178 of 186 plays carry both curves
(2:39) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 14-K.Raymond to MIN 4 for 61 yards (20-J.Gladney).
Swing −18.6 for VikingsExpected points −4.15 for VikingsThe model had Vikings 13 points higher than the market did.play 130
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 2:39MIN +19% win prob(2:39) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 14-K.Raymond to MIN 4 for 61 yards (20-J.Gladney).
3rd · 8:17MIN +18% win prob(8:17) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:48MIN +16% win prob(1:48) 3-S.Gostkowski 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
2nd · 15:00TEN +14% win prob(15:00) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left intended for 15-N.Westbrook INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at MIN -4. 22-H.Smith to MIN 12 for 16 yards (15-N.Westbrook; 70-T.Sambrailo).
1st · 7:03TEN +14% win prob(7:03) 33-D.Cook right end to MIN 45 for 3 yards (33-J.Joseph). FUMBLES (33-J.Joseph), RECOVERED by TEN-54-R.Evans at MIN 45. 54-R.Evans to MIN 20 for 25 yards (30-C.Ham).
4th · 1:36TEN +12% win prob(1:36) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins Aborted. 56-G.Bradbury FUMBLES at MIN 36, and recovers at MIN 26.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Stephen Gostkowski's 55-yard field goal with 1:48 left in the 4th put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:48Stephen Gostkowski·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+33–0
1st6:04Stephen Gostkowski·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+36–0
4th6:36Stephen Gostkowski·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+328–30
4th1:48Stephen Gostkowski·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.BrinkleyLead never changed again+331–30
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryVikings
Titans3–4Vikings
445Total yards464
6.2Yards per play7.4
50%Success rate44%
23%Third-down rate40%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays12
24First downs23
2Sacks taken2
1Turnovers3
The read
Vikings ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Titans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Titans: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.04Vikings: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.02Titans: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.15Vikings: +0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Titans: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.06Vikings: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 72 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Vikings’s 63 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Titans 4, Vikings 4.
NoteVikings outgained Titans 464-445 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TEN's sack or hit rate, 35.5%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 2.2 points clear of the next team along.
3.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 2.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 11 pts
off script — got home · +24.9 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+3.16× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Vikings17.1%
inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.77× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 35.5%, 24.9 points above their season mean of 10.6% and 3.2 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Tannehill pass−19% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(15:00) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left intended for 15-N.Westbrook INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at MIN -4. 22-H.Smith to MIN 12 for 16 yards (15-N.Westbrook; 70-T.Sambrailo).
Q2 15:00 · Titans · 1st & 10 at MIN 29 · gained nothing · -4.79 EP · −18.9% win probability
176 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 88 yards from the MIN 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
43%
Yards
908
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.3773%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20-0.3855%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR18-0.2956%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12-0.0433%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.3950%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.6140%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.4950%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8+0.3625%
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Vikings0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Titans3Vikings0
Field goal8 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Vikings 21
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 27
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 29 to the Titans 42
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Vikings 42
Titans6Vikings0
Field goal5 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 13
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Titans6Vikings6
Titans6Vikings7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 24 to the Titans 39
The period ended8 plays, from the Titans 29 to the Vikings 38
2nd quarter44 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Titans6Vikings13
Titans6Vikings14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 12 to the Titans 16
Titans9Vikings14
Field goal13 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Vikings 12
Titans9Vikings17
Field goal9 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Titans 23
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 41
The period ended3 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 23
3rd quarter1 plays
2nd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter47 plays
Intercepted1 play
Punt4 plays
No good10 plays, from the Vikings 12 to the Titans 28
Titans12Vikings17
Field goal5 plays, from the Titans 39 to the Vikings 33
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Titans12Vikings23
Titans12Vikings24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Vikings 27 to the Vikings 29
Titans18Vikings24
Titans19Vikings24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Vikings 1
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 32
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Titans25Vikings24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Vikings 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 38
4th quarter49 plays
Titans25Vikings30
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 39 to the Titans 3
Titans28Vikings30
Field goal11 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Vikings 36
Punt9 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 42
Titans31Vikings30
Field goal10 plays, from the Titans 19 to the Vikings 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 40
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Titans -3
Closing total
49.5
Titans moneyline
-155
Vikings moneyline
+139
Titans closed -3, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 61 — over by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Titans 7 days · Vikings 7 days
Coaches
Mike Vrabel vs Mike Zimmer
4th · 10:22
MIN +12% win prob
(10:22) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 82-K.Rudolph for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-D.Jones].
3rd · 15:00TEN +11% win prob(15:00) 8-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Joseph [55-J.Brown] at MIN 31. 33-J.Joseph for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on TEN-99-J.Clowney, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 26.
