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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
Washington Commanders 20 at Cleveland Browns 34. Final.
Browns -7.5 ✓O 45 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 3
Cleveland Browns 34, Commanders 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 7:41, 2nd and 25, on Karl Joseph — 16.7 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:41 · 2nd and 25
Karl Joseph
Browns
(7:41) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass deep middle intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 42-K.Joseph at CLE 16. 42-K.Joseph to WAS 35 for 49 yards (76-M.Moses). FUMBLES (76-M.Moses), recovered by CLE-20-T.Thomas at WAS 28.
Browns closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Cleveland Browns 34–20. Biggest swing: Q2 7:41, Browns +16.7% win probability on one snap.
16.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dontrelle InmanCommandersQ3 2:24(2:24) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short left to 80-D.Inman for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.8pts
Harrison BryantBrownsQ4 11:19(11:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-H.Bryant for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Browns won this one — no giveaways, against Commanders at 5 giveaways.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — +0.30 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.17 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Browns at 4 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Browns won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.12 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Commanders161 of 166 plays carry both curves
(7:41) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass deep middle intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 42-K.Joseph at CLE 16. 42-K.Joseph to WAS 35 for 49 yards (76-M.Moses). FUMBLES (76-M.Moses), recovered by CLE-20-T.Thomas at WAS 28.
Swing +16.7 for BrownsExpected points +6.15 for BrownsThe model had Commanders 19 points higher than the market did.play 59
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 7:41WAS +17% win prob(7:41) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass deep middle intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 42-K.Joseph at CLE 16. 42-K.Joseph to WAS 35 for 49 yards (76-M.Moses). FUMBLES (76-M.Moses), recovered by CLE-20-T.Thomas at WAS 28.
3rd · 2:24CLE +16% win prob(2:24) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short left to 80-D.Inman for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:19CLE +11% win prob(11:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-H.Bryant for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:22CLE +11% win prob(9:22) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin to CLE 26 for 33 yards (39-T.Mitchell; 21-D.Ward).
2nd · 12:53CLE +10% win prob(12:53) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 81-A.Hooper to WAS 29 for 8 yards (20-J.Moreland). CLE-81-A.Hooper was injured during the play. His return is Probable.
3rd · 1:00CLE +10% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham to CLE 38 for 15 yards (30-T.Apke).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Harrison Bryant's 3-yard touchdown catch with 11:19 left in the 4th put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
4th1:13Cody Parkey·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+320–34
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categoryBrowns
Commanders4–4Browns
309Total yards300
5.0Yards per play4.8
40%Success rate42%
45%Third-down rate36%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
5Explosive plays5
20First downs18
3Sacks taken2
5Turnovers0
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Browns, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Commanders: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.07Browns: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.17Commanders: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.30Browns: +0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Commanders: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.09Browns: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 62 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Browns’s 62 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 3, Browns 6.
NoteCommanders outgained Browns 309-300 but lost the turnover battle 5-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
CLE's pass rate over expected, −15.5 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 3.6 points clear of the next team along.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CLE's early-down pass rate, 34.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 4.1 points clear of the next team along.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.04× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Browns7.3%
inside their normal wobble · −3.9 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -15.5 pts, 11.6 points below their season mean of -3.9 pts and 1.5 times their own 7.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
71Wes SchweitzerG · Every snap100%64 snaps
76Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%64 snaps
67Wes MartinG · Every snap100%64 snaps
74Geron ChristianT · Every snap100%64 snaps
73Chase RoullierC · Every snap100%64 snaps
7Dwayne HaskinsQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
17Terry McLaurinWR · Full-time98%63 snaps
82Logan ThomasTE · Full-time86%55 snaps
80Dontrelle InmanWR · Heavy rotation70%45 snaps
41J.D. McKissicRB · Heavy rotation53%34 snaps
83Isaiah WrightWR · Rotational45%29 snaps
24Antonio GibsonRB · Rotational39%25 snaps
15Steven SimsWR · Rotational36%23 snaps
10Antonio Gandy-GoldenWR · Rotational28%18 snaps
85Marcus BaughTE · Situational20%13 snaps
34Peyton BarberRB · Situational11%7 snaps
87Jeremy SprinkleTE · Situational9%6 snaps
89Cam SimsWR · Situational2%1 snap
63Joshua GarnettOG · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Danny JohnsonDBJames Smith-WilliamsDECole HolcombLBSaahdiq CharlesOTAlex SmithQBBryce LoveRBDavid SharpeT
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Haskins pass−22% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:41) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass deep middle intended for 82-L.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 42-K.Joseph at CLE 16. 42-K.Joseph to WAS 35 for 49 yards (76-M.Moses). FUMBLES (76-M.Moses), recovered by CLE-20-T.Thomas at WAS 28.
Q2 7:41 · Commanders · 2nd & 25 at CLE 41 · gained nothing · -6.15 EP · −21.9% win probability
159 snaps placed · 7 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 75 yards from the WAS 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
40%
Yards
609
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.2067%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24-0.0146%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.0850%
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10+0.2630%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.2050%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.1133%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Commanders 44
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 8 to the Browns 45
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 18 to the Browns 38
Commanders6Browns0
Commanders7Browns0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Browns 17
The period ended5 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Browns 38
2nd quarter44 plays
Commanders7Browns3
Field goal10 plays, from the Browns 48 to the Commanders 24
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Browns 26
Commanders7Browns9
Commanders7Browns10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Commanders 16
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 30
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Browns 35
Intercepted3 plays, from the Commanders 16 to the Commanders 19
Commanders7Browns16
Commanders7Browns17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Commanders 9
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 34
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 33
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 15 to the Browns 19
Commanders13Browns17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Browns 49 to the Browns 2
Punt5 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Commanders19Browns17
Commanders20Browns17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Commanders 46 to the Browns 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 38
4th quarter41 plays
Commanders20Browns23
Commanders20Browns24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Commanders 49 to the Commanders 3
Intercepted5 plays
Commanders20Browns30
Commanders20Browns31
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Commanders 20
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Browns 49
Commanders20Browns34
Field goal13 plays, from the Commanders 41 to the Commanders 8
The period ended4 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 28
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Browns -7.5
Closing total
45
Commanders moneyline
+282
Browns moneyline
-331
Browns closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 45; the game landed 54 — over by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 78°F at kickoff; breezy at 14 mph out of the south; clear.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Commanders 7 days · Browns 10 days
Coaches
Ron Rivera vs Kevin Stefanski
1st · 1:50CLE +10% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass deep right to 80-D.Inman for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS-80-D.Inman, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
3rd · 3:44CLE +10% win prob(3:44) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short right to 82-L.Thomas to CLE 4 for 4 yards (42-K.Joseph).
Commanderscategory by categoryBrowns
Commanders6
Browns0
