2020 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2020 · Bank of America Stadium

Arizona Cardinals

Carolina PanthersWinner

ARI -3 upsetU 52.5 ✓Cardinals closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Carolina Panthers 31–21. Biggest swing: Q1 9:27, CAR +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 9:27ARI — CAR CAR ball · 4th & 2ARI 55%

(9:27) 5-T.Bridgewater scrambles right end ran ob at ARI 35 for 6 yards (43-H.Reddick).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 9:27CAR +8% win prob(9:27) 5-T.Bridgewater scrambles right end ran ob at ARI 35 for 6 yards (43-H.Reddick).
Q1 · 8:39CAR +7% win prob(8:39) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 12-D.Moore pushed ob at ARI 23 for 12 yards (21-P.Peterson).
Q1 · 12:18CAR +6% win prob(12:18) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 11-R.Anderson to ARI 49 for 14 yards (20-D.Kirkpatrick).
Q2 · 13:05ARI +6% win prob(13:05) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 21-P.Peterson at CAR 38. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at CAR 38 for no gain.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Panthers
Offensive plays	55	69
Total yards	262	447 (edge)
Yards per play	4.8	6.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.08	0.29 (edge)
Success rate	49% (edge)	48%
Dropback rate	64%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13	0.48 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02	0.03 (edge)
Third downs	3/9	7/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	11 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	28 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Teddy BridgewaterQB

26/37, 276 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

12.6 expected points added · +6.3% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

24/31, 133 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

1.2 expected points added · +11.1% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Mike DavisRB

16 att, 84 yds, 1 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

6 att, 78 yds, 0 TD

4.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Robbie ChosenWR

8/11 for 99 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Curtis SamuelWR

3/4 for 51 yds, 0 TD

11% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 25	7	12	1:55	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 34	14	80	5:44	Touchdown
3	ARI	ARI 25	5	7	1:21	Punt
4	CAR	CAR 20	10	80	4:31	Touchdown
5	ARI	ARI 25	7	15	2:08	Punt
6	CAR	CAR 13	2	2	1:23	Interception
7	ARI	CAR 38	11	36	5:32	Touchdown
8	CAR	CAR 25	12	75	5:31	Touchdown
9	ARI	ARI 25	9	24	1:20	Punt
10	CAR	CAR 6	1	0	0:35	End of half
11	CAR	CAR 28	6	21	1:31	Punt
12	ARI	ARI 14	8	48	3:44	Fumble
13	CAR	CAR 26	9	61	4:19	Touchdown
14	ARI	ARI 25	9	75	4:11	Touchdown
15	CAR	CAR 18	16	78	8:30	Turnover on downs
16	ARI	ARI 25	5	1	0:49	Punt
17	CAR	CAR 37	8	39	2:51	Turnover on downs
18	ARI	ARI 32	8	44	1:52	Touchdown
19	CAR	ARI 39	5	11	2:13	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	24/31	133	3	0	1	1.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kyler Murray	6	78	13.0	4.5
Kenyan Drake	13	35	2.7	-2.5
Chase Edmonds	4	16	4.0	1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	7	9	41	0	29%	0.9
Dan Arnold	4	4	39	0	13%	3.2
Chase Edmonds	5	6	24	1	19%	3.5
Christian Kirk	3	5	19	1	16%	0.4
Larry Fitzgerald	2	3	4	0	10%	-1.5
Jordan Thomas	1	1	3	1	3%	1.5
Andy Isabella	2	3	3	0	10%	-2.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Jordan Hicks	8	4	0	0
Deionte Thompson	4	5	0	1
De'Vondre Campbell	3	5	0	0
Curtis Riley	5	1	0	0
Patrick Peterson	5	0	1	1
Charles Washington	2	2	0	1
Byron Murphy	2	2	0	0
Zach Allen	1	3	0	0
Chandler Jones	1	3	0	0
Dre Kirkpatrick	3	0	0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	26/37	276	2	1	0	12.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mike Davis	16	84	5.3	1	1.1
Reggie Bonnafon	10	53	5.3	0	1.1
Teddy Bridgewater	6	32	5.3	1	4.6
Alex Armah	1	2	2.0	0	0.4
Curtis Samuel	2	-3	-1.5	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Robbie Chosen	8	11	99	0	31%	5.7
Curtis Samuel	3	4	51	0	11%	5.7
D.J. Moore	4	6	49	0	17%	3.8
Mike Davis	5	6	27	0	17%	-1.7
Reggie Bonnafon	2	2	18	1	6%	2.8
Chris Manhertz	1	1	17	0	3%	0.4
Seth Roberts	1	1	10	0	3%	0.6
Ian Thomas	2	5	5	1	14%	-4.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jeremy Chinn	5	3	0.0	0
Juston Burris	5	1	0.0	1
Donte Jackson	2	3	0.0	1
Shaq Thompson	3	2	0.0	0
Rasul Douglas	4	0	0.0	0
Tre Boston	3	1	0.0	0
Tahir Whitehead	1	3	0.0	0
Yetur Gross-Matos	3	0	1.0	0
Marquis Haynes	2	0	0.0	0
Jermaine Carter	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ARI -3
Closing total: 52.5
ARI moneyline: -157
CAR moneyline: +141

Cardinals closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 52.5; the game landed 52 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 68°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Ronald Torbert
Rest: ARI 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: Kliff Kingsbury vs Matt Rhule