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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Cardinals167 of 176 plays carry both curves
(9:27) 5-T.Bridgewater scrambles right end ran ob at ARI 35 for 6 yards (43-H.Reddick).
Swing +7.5 for PanthersExpected points +2.87 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 16 points higher than the market did.play 17
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:27CAR +8% win prob(9:27) 5-T.Bridgewater scrambles right end ran ob at ARI 35 for 6 yards (43-H.Reddick).
1st · 8:39CAR +7% win prob(8:39) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 12-D.Moore pushed ob at ARI 23 for 12 yards (21-P.Peterson).
1st · 12:18CAR +6% win prob(12:18) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 11-R.Anderson to ARI 49 for 14 yards (20-D.Kirkpatrick).
2nd · 13:05ARI +6% win prob(13:05) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 21-P.Peterson at CAR 38. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at CAR 38 for no gain.
3rd · 9:00CAR +6% win prob(9:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep right to 10-C.Samuel pushed ob at ARI 48 for 24 yards (28-C.Washington).
2nd · 5:30CAR +5% win prob(5:30) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 11-R.Anderson pushed ob at ARI 39 for 16 yards (21-P.Peterson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mike Davis's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 7:25 left in the 1st put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:25Mike Davis·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
Panthers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Cardinals: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.29Panthers: +0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.13Cardinals: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.48Panthers: +0.48 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Cardinals: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.03Panthers: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 55 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Panthers’s 69 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 3, Panthers 5.
NotePanthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.1 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.40× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Panthers11.4%
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 9.0 pts, 7.5 points above their season mean of 1.5 pts and 1.4 times their own 5.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Bridgewater scrambles+9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(9:27) 5-T.Bridgewater scrambles right end ran ob at ARI 35 for 6 yards (43-H.Reddick).
Q1 9:27 · Panthers · 4th & 2 at ARI 41 · gained 6 · +2.87 EP · +8.7% win probability
165 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 80 yards from the CAR 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
45%
Yards
706
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.4776%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21-0.0471%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.1447%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.2231%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR15-0.0173%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.8244%
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.2529%
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Panthers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 37
Cardinals0Panthers6
Cardinals0Panthers7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Panthers 34 to the Cardinals 1
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 32
Cardinals0Panthers13
Cardinals0Panthers14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Cardinals 18
The period ended6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 39
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Cardinals 36 to the Cardinals 40
Intercepted4 plays, from the Panthers 13 to the Panthers 14
Cardinals6Panthers14
Cardinals7Panthers14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Panthers 38 to the Panthers 1
Cardinals7Panthers20
Cardinals7Panthers21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Cardinals 1
Punt11 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Panthers 36
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 28 to the Panthers 49
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Cardinals 14 to the Panthers 38
Cardinals7Panthers27
Cardinals7Panthers28
Touchdown10 plays, from the Panthers 26 to the Cardinals 2
Cardinals13Panthers28
Cardinals14Panthers28
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Panthers 3
The period ended4 plays, from the Panthers 18 to the Panthers 20
4th quarter48 plays
Cardinals14Panthers31
Field goal15 plays, from the Panthers 21 to the Cardinals 9
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 26
No good11 plays, from the Panthers 37 to the Cardinals 24
Cardinals20Panthers31
Cardinals21Panthers31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cardinals 32 to the Panthers 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the Cardinals 28
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
