2020 Week 4 · Mon, Oct 5, 2020 · Lambeau Field

Atlanta Falcons

Green Bay PackersWinner

GB -5 ✓U 56.5 ✓Packers closed -5 and covered, winning by 14.

Green Bay Packers 30–16. Biggest swing: Q2 2:34, GB +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 2:34ATL — GB GB ball · 3rd & 14GB 84%

(2:34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 85-R.Tonyan for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 2:34GB +8% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 85-R.Tonyan for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 5:18GB +7% win prob(5:18) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to ATL 33 for 14 yards (20-K.Sheffield).
Q2 · 12:30GB +6% win prob(12:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to GB 19 for 19 yards (25-W.Redmond; 23-J.Alexander) [31-A.Amos].
Q1 · 13:46ATL +6% win prob(13:46) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep right to 18-C.Ridley (26-D.Savage).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Packers
Offensive plays	68	59
Total yards	327	404 (edge)
Yards per play	4.8	6.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.04	0.29 (edge)
Success rate	49%	56% (edge)
Dropback rate	66%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07	0.74 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.37
Third downs	3/12	6/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	21
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0	0

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

27/33, 327 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

25.9 expected points added · +17.2% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

28/39, 285 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

1.5 expected points added · +6.7% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

15 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Todd GurleyRB

16 att, 57 yds, 2 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Robert TonyanTE

6/6 for 98 yds, 3 TD

18% of team targets · 12.2 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Jamaal WilliamsRB

8/8 for 95 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	5	4	1:27	Punt
2	GB	GB 27	8	73	3:32	Touchdown
3	ATL	ATL 25	5	4	0:56	Punt
4	GB	GB 34	9	65	5:51	Turnover on downs
5	ATL	ATL 1	20	94	10:36	Turnover on downs
6	GB	GB 25	13	75	5:10	Touchdown
7	ATL	ATL 25	5	-5	0:51	Punt
8	GB	50	8	60	0:51	Touchdown
9	ATL	ATL 32	4	11	0:46	End of half
10	GB	GB 21	8	9	3:18	Punt
11	ATL	ATL 33	9	62	4:22	Touchdown
12	GB	GB 49	6	51	2:02	Touchdown
13	ATL	ATL 25	15	64	7:26	Touchdown
14	GB	GB 25	11	41	6:57	Turnover on downs
15	ATL	ATL 25	9	49	2:17	Turnover on downs
16	GB	GB 26	7	30	1:52	Punt
17	ATL	ATL 20	8	44	1:41	Turnover on downs
18	GB	GB 36	1	0	0:05	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 94 scrimmage yards over 20 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	28/39	285	0	0	4	1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Todd Gurley	16	57	3.6	2	2.5
Matt Ryan	2	10	5.0	0	1.7
Brian Hill	4	10	2.5	0	-1.3
Ito Smith	2	3	1.5	0	-0.8
Russell Gage	1	-2	-2.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Olamide Zaccheaus	8	9	86	23%	5.4
Hayden Hurst	4	6	51	15%	1.5
Christian Blake	3	5	47	13%	1.1
Julio Jones	4	4	32	10%	4.3
Ito Smith	3	3	24	8%	1.3
Russell Gage	2	3	22	8%	0.5
Brian Hill	2	2	13	5%	-0.3
Todd Gurley	1	1	6	3%	0.3
Keith Smith	1	1	4	3%	-0.1
Calvin Ridley	0	5	0	13%	-6.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	5	3	0.0	0
Deion Jones	5	2	0.0	0
Kendall Sheffield	6	0	0.0	1
Damontae Kazee	3	2	0.0	0
Jamal Carter	4	1	0.0	0
Jaylinn Hawkins	3	2	0.0	0
Isaiah Oliver	3	1	0.0	0
Grady Jarrett	2	1	0.0	0
Steven Means	2	1	0.0	0
Charles Harris	2	0	1.0	0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	27/33	327	4	0	1	25.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Aaron Jones	15	71	4.7	-1.4
Jamaal Williams	8	10	1.3	-7.4
Aaron Rodgers	1	5	5.0	0.0
A.J. Dillon	1	3	3.0	-0.2
Tim Boyle	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Robert Tonyan	6	6	98	3	18%	12.2
Jamaal Williams	8	8	95	0	24%	5.3
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	4	8	45	0	24%	3.0
Aaron Jones	5	5	40	1	15%	2.7
Darrius Shepherd	2	3	21	0	9%	1.2
Malik Taylor	1	1	20	0	3%	2.8
Tyler Ervin	1	2	8	0	6%	0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Raven Greene	4	3	1.0	0
Za'Darius Smith	5	2	3.0	0
Jaire Alexander	4	2	0.0	0
Darnell Savage	5	1	0.0	1
Krys Barnes	4	2	0.0	0
Ty Summers	4	1	0.0	0
Will Redmond	3	2	0.0	0
Tyler Lancaster	1	3	0.0	0
Adrian Amos	4	0	0.0	1
Kevin King	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -5
Closing total: 56.5
ATL moneyline: +195
GB moneyline: -221

Packers closed -5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 56.5; the game landed 46 — under by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 53°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: ATL 8 days · GB 8 days
Coaches: Dan Quinn vs Matt LaFleur