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Atlanta Falcons 16 at Green Bay Packers 30. Final.
Packers -5 ✓U 56.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 4
Green Bay Packers 30, Falcons 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 2:34, 3rd and 14, on Robert Tonyan — 7.9 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:34 · 3rd and 14
Robert Tonyan
Packers
(2:34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 85-R.Tonyan for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.9 mph wind
Packers closed -5 and covered, winning by 14.
Green Bay Packers 30–16. Biggest swing: Q2 2:34, Packers +7.9% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.9 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
7.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Julio JonesFalconsQ2 12:30(12:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to GB 19 for 19 yards (25-W.Redmond; 23-J.Alexander) [31-A.Amos].
6.3pts
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingPackersQ2 5:18(5:18) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to ATL 33 for 14 yards (20-K.Sheffield).
6.6pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Packers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Falcons at 2 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.74 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at +0.07 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Packers won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Falcons at 3 of 12 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.37 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Falcons159 of 172 plays carry both curves
(2:34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 85-R.Tonyan for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +7.9 for PackersExpected points +4.17 for PackersThe model had Falcons 4 points higher than the market did.play 63
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:34GB +8% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 85-R.Tonyan for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:18GB +7% win prob(5:18) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to ATL 33 for 14 yards (20-K.Sheffield).
2nd · 12:30GB +6% win prob(12:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to GB 19 for 19 yards (25-W.Redmond; 23-J.Alexander) [31-A.Amos].
1st · 13:46ATL +6% win prob(13:46) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep right to 18-C.Ridley (26-D.Savage).
2nd · 9:47GB +6% win prob(9:47) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles right tackle to GB 5 for 6 yards (31-A.Amos).
2nd · 2:28ATL +4% win prob2-M.Crosby extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
1st · 12:50
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Aaron Jones's 6-yard touchdown catch with 10:05 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
4th6:00Mason Crosby·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.Bradley+316–30
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryPackers
Falcons1–7Packers
327Total yards404
4.8Yards per play6.8
49%Success rate56%
25%Third-down rate55%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
2Explosive plays9
23First downs21
4Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Packers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.74 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Falcons: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.29Packers: +0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Falcons: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.74Packers: +0.74 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Falcons: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.37Packers: −0.37 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 68 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Packers’s 59 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 3, Packers 5.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ATL's sack or hit rate, 2.9%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 4 — 1.9 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 3.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
GB's sack or hit rate turned over: 5.3% in week 3 against 15.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.7 points.
ATL's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 3 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 31.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.4 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−1.81× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Packers15.6%
inside their normal wobble · +2.7 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.9%, 10.4 points below their season mean of 13.3% and 1.8 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ryan pass+9% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(12:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to GB 19 for 19 yards (25-W.Redmond; 23-J.Alexander) [31-A.Amos].
Q2 12:30 · Falcons · 4th & 3 at GB 38 · gained 19 · +4.17 EP · +9.5% win probability
157 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 94 yards from the ATL 1 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
46%
Yards
730
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.0470%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR21-0.1552%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+1.0280%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.2045%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.3267%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Packers3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Packers1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Packers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Packers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 29
Falcons0Packers6
Falcons0Packers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 27 to the Falcons 6
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 29
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Falcons 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Falcons 1 to the Falcons 23
2nd quarter52 plays
Falcons3Packers7
Field goal15 plays, from the Falcons 28 to the Packers 5
Falcons3Packers13
Touchdown14 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Falcons 15
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 31
Falcons3Packers19
Falcons3Packers20
Touchdown11 plays, from midfield to the Falcons 8
The period ended6 plays, from the Falcons 32 to the Packers 49
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Packers 33
Falcons9Packers20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 33 to the Packers 5
Falcons9Packers26
Falcons9Packers27
Touchdown6 plays, from the Packers 49 to the Falcons 21
The period ended14 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Packers 30
4th quarter47 plays
Falcons15Packers27
Falcons16Packers27
Touchdown5 plays, from the Packers 14 to the Packers 3
Falcons16Packers30
Field goal13 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Falcons 28
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Packers 22
Punt10 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Falcons 44
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Packers 31
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
