2020 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2020 · FedExField

Baltimore RavensWinner

Washington Commanders

BAL -14.5 no coverO 45 ✓Ravens closed -14.5, won by 14 — but didn't cover.

Baltimore Ravens 31–17. Biggest swing: Q1 9:51, WAS +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 9:51BAL — WAS WAS ball · 4th & 15BAL 89%

(9:51) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to BAL 8, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 9:51WAS +7% win prob(9:51) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to BAL 8, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.
Q1 · 9:44WAS +5% win prob(9:44) (Shotgun) 21-M.Ingram left tackle to BAL 12 for 4 yards (93-J.Allen; 53-J.Bostic).
Q1 · 3:03BAL +4% win prob(3:03) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short right to 41-J.McKissic to WAS 27 for -2 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), touched at WAS 29, RECOVERED by BAL-24-M.Peters at WAS 31. 24-M.Peters to WAS 34 for -3 yards (82-L.Thomas).
Q1 · 5:11BAL +4% win prob(5:11) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL-78-O.Brown, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 35 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Commanders
Offensive plays	54	70
Total yards	352 (edge)	343
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	0.27 (edge)	-0.03
Success rate	44%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	50%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.37 (edge)	-0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18 (edge)	0.11
Third downs	5/11 (edge)	4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	17	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Dwayne HaskinsQB

32/45, 314 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-1.0 expected points added · -0.7% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

14/21, 193 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

10.4 expected points added · +7.9% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

7 att, 53 yds, 1 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Antonio GibsonRB

13 att, 46 yds, 1 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

10/14 for 118 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Marquise BrownWR

4/8 for 86 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 25	11	17	5:16	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 8	9	32	5:35	Punt
3	WAS	WAS 13	3	16	1:18	Fumble
4	BAL	WAS 34	3	34	0:42	Touchdown
5	WAS	WAS 13	5	6	1:42	Punt
6	BAL	BAL 40	4	1	0:45	Punt
7	WAS	WAS 18	9	46	3:16	Turnover on downs
8	BAL	BAL 44	4	56	1:30	Touchdown
9	WAS	WAS 25	12	75	5:15	Touchdown
10	BAL	BAL 25	10	75	2:52	Touchdown
11	WAS	WAS 25	7	8	1:07	Punt
12	BAL	BAL 23	2	0	0:11	Interception
13	WAS	BAL 37	3	12	0:31	Turnover on downs
14	BAL	BAL 25	12	75	6:18	Touchdown
15	WAS	WAS 25	7	14	2:10	Punt
16	BAL	BAL 33	4	11	2:10	Punt
17	WAS	WAS 10	17	87	7:47	Turnover on downs
18	BAL	BAL 8	10	49	6:19	Turnover on downs
19	WAS	WAS 25	6	20	0:52	Punt
20	BAL	BAL 12	2	-2	0:55	Interception
21	WAS	BAL 42	5	42	1:24	Touchdown
22	BAL	WAS 49	7	21	2:05	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 87 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	14/21	193	2	1	1	10.4
Sam Koch	1/1	15	0	0	0	3.4
Robert Griffin	0/1	0	0	1	0	-1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Lamar Jackson	7	53	7.6	1	-0.2
Gus Edwards	9	38	4.2	0	4.1
Mark Ingram	8	34	4.3	1	1.1
J.K. Dobbins	5	16	3.2	0	-1.3
Robert Griffin	3	3	1.0	0	-3.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquise Brown	4	8	86	0	35%	2.7
Mark Andrews	3	3	57	2	13%	8.0
Miles Boykin	2	4	28	0	17%	0.9
Willie Snead	2	2	20	0	9%	1.9
Nick Boyle	1	1	9	0	4%	1.3
Devin Duvernay	1	2	4	0	9%	-0.7
Mark Ingram	1	1	3	0	4%	-0.1
J.K. Dobbins	1	2	1	0	9%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Patrick Queen	8	3	0.0	0
Marlon Humphrey	8	1	0.0	1
Chuck Clark	3	3	0.0	0
Chris Board	2	4	0.0	0
L.J. Fort	5	1	0.0	0
Anthony Averett	5	0	0.0	1
Matt Judon	2	2	2.0	1
Calais Campbell	2	2	0.0	1
Jimmy Smith	3	0	0.0	0
DeShon Elliott	2	1	0.0	1

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dwayne Haskins	32/45	314	0	0	3	-1.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Antonio Gibson	13	46	3.5	1	0.9
Isaiah Wright	1	9	9.0	0	0.5
J.D. McKissic	2	6	3.0	0	-1.0
Peyton Barber	3	5	1.7	0	-1.0
Dwayne Haskins	3	3	1.0	1	3.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	10	14	118	32%	5.0
Antonio Gibson	4	5	82	11%	6.6
J.D. McKissic	7	8	40	18%	-5.7
Dontrelle Inman	4	5	29	11%	2.3
Isaiah Wright	4	5	20	11%	-4.3
Cam Sims	2	2	17	5%	0.1
Logan Thomas	1	4	8	9%	-2.1
Peyton Barber	0	1	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jon Bostic	6	8	0
Landon Collins	4	4	0
Kevin Pierre-Louis	4	2	0
Daron Payne	1	4	0
Jonathan Allen	1	2	0
Kamren Curl	1	2	0
Ronald Darby	2	1	0
Fabian Moreau	2	0	0
Troy Apke	1	1	1
Shaun Dion Hamilton	1	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -14.5
Closing total: 45
BAL moneyline: -958
WAS moneyline: +692

Ravens closed -14.5, won by 14 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45; the game landed 48 — over by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 65°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: BAL 6 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Ron Rivera