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Baltimore Ravens 31 at Washington Commanders 17. Final.
Ravens -14.5 no coverO 45 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 4
Baltimore Ravens 31, Commanders 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 9:51, 4th and 15 — 7.1 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:51 · 4th and 15
Unnamed on the sheet
Commanders
(9:51) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to BAL 8, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.
Ravens closed -14.5, won by 14 — but didn't cover.
Baltimore Ravens 31–17. Biggest swing: Q1 9:51, Commanders +7.1% win probability on one snap.
7.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mark IngramRavensQ1 9:44(9:44) (Shotgun) 21-M.Ingram left tackle to BAL 12 for 4 yards (93-J.Allen; 53-J.Bostic).
4.5pts
J.D. McKissicRavensQ1 3:03(3:03) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short right to 41-J.McKissic to WAS 27 for -2 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), touched at WAS 29, RECOVERED by BAL-24-M.Peters at WAS 31. 24-M.Peters to WAS 34 for -3 yards (82-L.Thomas).
4.3pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Commanders at 3 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.37 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.10 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Ravens at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.27 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.03 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 46 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Ravens160 of 173 plays carry both curves
(9:51) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to BAL 8, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.
Swing +7.1 for CommandersExpected points +0.65 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 37 points higher than the market did.play 13
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:51WAS +7% win prob(9:51) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to BAL 8, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.
1st · 9:44WAS +5% win prob(9:44) (Shotgun) 21-M.Ingram left tackle to BAL 12 for 4 yards (93-J.Allen; 53-J.Bostic).
1st · 3:03BAL +4% win prob(3:03) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short right to 41-J.McKissic to WAS 27 for -2 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), touched at WAS 29, RECOVERED by BAL-24-M.Peters at WAS 31. 24-M.Peters to WAS 34 for -3 yards (82-L.Thomas).
1st · 5:11BAL +4% win prob(5:11) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL-78-O.Brown, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 35 - No Play.
1st · 14:08WAS +4% win prob(14:08) 24-A.Gibson left end to WAS 41 for 10 yards (32-D.Elliott).
1st · 11:10BAL +3% win prob(11:10) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson left end to BAL 44 for 2 yards (36-C.Clark; 54-T.Bowser).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mark Ingram's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 2:13 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st2:13Mark Ingram·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
Ravens ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.27Ravens: +0.27 expected points added per play
−0.03Commanders: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.37Ravens: +0.37 expected points added per play
−0.10Commanders: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.18Ravens: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.11Commanders: +0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 54 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Commanders’s 70 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 4, Commanders 3.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, sat 40.8 points above their season number of 25.8% — they went for it by 2.0 times their own 20.3-point weekly swing.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 20.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +1.2 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Commanders11.1%
inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 40.8 points above their season mean of 25.8% and 2.0 times their own 20.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Haskins pass−13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(3:03) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short right to 41-J.McKissic to WAS 27 for -2 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), touched at WAS 29, RECOVERED by BAL-24-M.Peters at WAS 31. 24-M.Peters to WAS 34 for -3 yards (82-L.Thomas).
Q1 3:03 · Commanders · 2nd & 11 at WAS 29 · gained nothing · -4.46 EP · −12.6% win probability
158 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 82 yards from the WAS 10 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
42%
Yards
693
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57-0.1075%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.0655%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11+0.2036%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.6256%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.0150%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.1233%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Ravens 44
Punt10 plays, from the Ravens 8 to the Ravens 35
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Commanders 13 to the Commanders 30
Ravens6Commanders0
Ravens7Commanders0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Commanders 34 to the Commanders 1
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 13 to the Commanders 19
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter57 plays
Punt3 plays
No good9 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the Ravens 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Ravens13Commanders0
Ravens14Commanders0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Ravens 44 to midfield
Ravens14Commanders6
Ravens14Commanders7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Ravens 1
Ravens20Commanders7
Ravens21Commanders7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Commanders 25
Punt10 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 41
Intercepted2 plays
Ravens21Commanders10
Field goal4 plays, from the Ravens 37 to the Ravens 25
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter36 plays
Ravens27Commanders10
Ravens28Commanders10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Commanders 22
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 39
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 33 to the Ravens 39
The period ended12 plays, from the Commanders 10 to the Ravens 32
4th quarter44 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Ravens 24 to the Ravens 10
Ravens31Commanders10
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 8 to the Commanders 27
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 45
Intercepted3 plays
Ravens31Commanders16
Ravens31Commanders17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Ravens 42 to the Ravens 1
The period ended12 plays, from the Commanders 49 to the Commanders 38
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
