2020 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2020 · Allegiant Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

Las Vegas Raiders

BUF -3 ✓53 pushDomeBills closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.

Buffalo Bills 30–23. Biggest swing: Q4 12:39, BUF +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 12:39BUF — LV LV ball · 2nd & 11BUF 79%

(12:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller to BUF 32 for 4 yards (29-J.Norman, 21-J.Poyer). FUMBLES (29-J.Norman), RECOVERED by BUF-29-J.Norman at BUF 33. 29-J.Norman pushed ob at BUF 40 for 7 yards (83-D

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 12:39BUF +10% win prob(12:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller to BUF 32 for 4 yards (29-J.Norman, 21-J.Poyer). FUMBLES (29-J.Norman), RECOVERED by BUF-29-J.Norman at BUF 33. 29-J.Norman pushed ob at BUF 40 for 7 yards (83-D.Waller).
Q3 · 6:16LV +9% win prob(6:16) 19-I.McKenzie right end pushed ob at LV 36 for 14 yards (27-T.Mullen).
Q1 · 2:41LV +8% win prob(2:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 19-I.McKenzie to LV 31 for 18 yards (26-N.Lawson; 25-E.Harris).
Q3 · 3:19BUF +8% win prob(3:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 26 for -7 yards (92-D.Johnson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Raiders
Offensive plays	57	68
Total yards	339	383 (edge)
Yards per play	5.9 (edge)	5.6
Expected points added / play	0.27 (edge)	-0.02
Success rate	47%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	61%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.53 (edge)	0.14
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14 (edge)	-0.43
Third downs	7/12 (edge)	8/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	19	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Raiders outgained Bills 383–339 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

32/44, 311 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.1 expected points added · +0.9% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

24/34, 288 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

18.6 expected points added · +5.3% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

18 att, 56 yds, 1 TD

-4.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

15 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-7.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

6/7 for 115 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 9.1 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Darren WallerTE

9/11 for 88 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 0.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 25	10	70	4:23	Touchdown
2	LV	LV 16	13	48	5:35	Turnover on downs
3	BUF	BUF 25	13	70	5:14	Touchdown
4	LV	LV 25	13	59	5:10	Turnover on downs
5	BUF	BUF 25	12	44	5:25	Turnover on downs
6	LV	LV 25	13	75	4:00	Touchdown
7	BUF	BUF 25	2	0	0:13	End of half
8	LV	LV 25	12	73	6:24	Turnover on downs
9	BUF	BUF 25	11	39	3:32	Punt
10	LV	LV 20	6	6	2:41	Punt
11	BUF	LV 45	7	45	2:34	Touchdown
12	LV	LV 38	6	39	2:21	Fumble
13	BUF	BUF 40	5	60	1:11	Touchdown
14	LV	LV 25	5	9	1:30	Turnover on downs
15	BUF	LV 34	5	2	2:27	Punt
16	LV	LV 20	4	40	1:59	Fumble
17	BUF	BUF 40	4	0	1:50	Punt
18	LV	LV 20	9	34	2:02	Touchdown
19	BUF	LV 43	4	9	1:29	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 75 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	24/34	288	2	0	1	18.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devin Singletary	18	56	3.1	1	-4.4
Isaiah McKenzie	2	11	5.5	0	1.9
Josh Allen	3	-1	-0.3	1	-1.4
Andre Roberts	1	-3	-3.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	6	7	115	0	22%	9.1
John Brown	4	5	42	0	16%	3.0
Cole Beasley	3	4	32	1	13%	5.2
Gabe Davis	1	1	26	1	3%	3.1
Devin Singletary	5	6	21	0	19%	-1.0
Isaiah McKenzie	1	1	18	0	3%	3.2
Dawson Knox	2	3	16	0	9%	0.6
Tyler Kroft	1	3	12	0	9%	-0.2
Andre Roberts	1	1	6	0	3%	0.2
T.J. Yeldon	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	8	5	0.0	0
Jordan Poyer	4	5	0.0	0
Tre'Davious White	6	2	0.0	1
Taron Johnson	5	2	0.0	0
Micah Hyde	5	1	0.0	1
Matt Milano	3	3	0.0	1
Josh Norman	2	1	0.0	0
Ed Oliver	2	0	0.0	0
Trent Murphy	1	0	0.0	0
Quinton Jefferson	1	0	1.0	0

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	32/44	311	2	0	2	10.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Jacobs	15	48	3.2	-7.7
Derek Carr	4	20	5.0	0.7
Theo Riddick	2	13	6.5	0.9
Jalen Richard	1	6	6.0	1.1
Alec Ingold	1	-1	-1.0	-2.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darren Waller	9	11	88	0	26%	0.5
Hunter Renfrow	5	8	57	0	19%	1.2
Nelson Agholor	4	4	44	1	9%	8.1
Zay Jones	4	7	32	0	16%	-0.3
Alec Ingold	2	2	29	0	5%	2.6
Josh Jacobs	3	4	25	0	9%	0.4
Jason Witten	2	2	18	1	5%	2.7
Jalen Richard	2	4	10	0	9%	-1.8
Foster Moreau	1	1	8	0	2%	0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Erik Harris	7	2	0
Trayvon Mullen	6	1	0
Cory Littleton	5	1	0
Nevin Lawson	4	1	0
Lamarcus Joyner	4	0	0
Johnathan Abram	2	1	0
Nick Kwiatkoski	2	1	0
Maurice Hurst	1	1	1
Amik Robertson	1	1	0
Carl Nassib	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -3
Closing total: 53
BUF moneyline: -172
LV moneyline: +154

Bills closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 53 and landed exactly there — a push.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: BUF 7 days · LV 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Jon Gruden