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Buffalo Bills 30, Raiders 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 12:39, 2nd and 11, on Darren Waller — 9.7 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 12:39 · 2nd and 11
Darren Waller
Bills
(12:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller to BUF 32 for 4 yards (29-J.Norman, 21-J.Poyer). FUMBLES (29-J.Norman), RECOVERED by BUF-29-J.Norman at BUF 33. 29-J.Norman pushed ob at BUF 40 for 7 yards (83-D.Waller).
Dome
Bills closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Buffalo Bills 30–23. Biggest swing: Q4 12:39, Bills +9.7% win probability on one snap.
9.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Isaiah McKenzieBillsQ1 2:41(2:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 19-I.McKenzie to LV 31 for 18 yards (26-N.Lawson; 25-E.Harris).
7.7pts
Isaiah McKenzieBillsQ3 6:16(6:16) 19-I.McKenzie right end pushed ob at LV 36 for 14 yards (27-T.Mullen).
9.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Raiders at 2 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.27 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.02 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bills won this one — -0.14 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.43 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.53 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at +0.14 expected points per dropback.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Bills165 of 175 plays carry both curves
(12:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller to BUF 32 for 4 yards (29-J.Norman, 21-J.Poyer). FUMBLES (29-J.Norman), RECOVERED by BUF-29-J.Norman at BUF 33. 29-J.Norman pushed ob at BUF 40 for 7 yards (83-D
Swing −9.7 for RaidersExpected points −4.79 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 3 points higher than the market did.play 131
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 12:39BUF +10% win prob(12:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller to BUF 32 for 4 yards (29-J.Norman, 21-J.Poyer). FUMBLES (29-J.Norman), RECOVERED by BUF-29-J.Norman at BUF 33. 29-J.Norman pushed ob at BUF 40 for 7 yards (83-D.Waller).
3rd · 6:16LV +9% win prob(6:16) 19-I.McKenzie right end pushed ob at LV 36 for 14 yards (27-T.Mullen).
1st · 2:41LV +8% win prob(2:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 19-I.McKenzie to LV 31 for 18 yards (26-N.Lawson; 25-E.Harris).
3rd · 3:19BUF +8% win prob(3:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 26 for -7 yards (92-D.Johnson).
3rd · 5:43BUF +7% win prob(5:43) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary right tackle to LV 33 for 3 yards (99-A.Key; 90-J.Hankins). LV-90-J.Hankins was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on BUF-75-Da.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 36 - No Play.
2nd · 0:19LV +7% win prob(:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 82-J.Witten for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Gabe Davis's 26-yard touchdown catch with 10:44 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Bills ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.27Bills: +0.27 expected points added per play
−0.02Raiders: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.53Bills: +0.53 expected points added per play
+0.14Raiders: +0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Bills: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.43Raiders: −0.43 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 57 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Raiders’s 68 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Bills 5, Raiders 4.
NoteRaiders outgained Bills 383-339 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 33 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.4 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Raiders17.1%
inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLV's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 71.2%, 17.1 points above their season mean of 54.1% and 1.4 times their own 12.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass−11% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(12:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller to BUF 32 for 4 yards (29-J.Norman, 21-J.Poyer). FUMBLES (29-J.Norman), RECOVERED by BUF-29-J.Norman at BUF 33. 29-J.Norman pushed ob at BUF 40 for 7 yards (83-D.Waller).
Q4 12:39 · Raiders · 2nd & 11 at BUF 36 · gained 3 · -4.79 EP · −10.7% win probability
163 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 80 yards from the LV 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
43%
Yards
720
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.2957%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.0476%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.2061%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR11+0.0882%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.0129%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Bills6Raiders0
Bills7Raiders0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Raiders 26
Bills7Raiders3
Field goal13 plays, from the Raiders 16 to the Bills 35
The period ended11 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Raiders 14
2nd quarter49 plays
Bills13Raiders3
Bills14Raiders3
Touchdown3 plays
Bills14Raiders6
Field goal15 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Bills 19
Bills17Raiders6
Field goal13 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Raiders 16
Bills17Raiders12
Bills17Raiders13
Touchdown15 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Bills 3
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Bills17Raiders16
Field goal13 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Bills 7
Punt12 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Raiders 36
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 33
The period ended6 plays, from the Raiders 45 to the Raiders 15
4th quarter53 plays
Bills23Raiders16
Touchdown2 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Raiders 38 to the Bills 35
Bills29Raiders16
Bills30Raiders16
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bills 40 to the Raiders 2
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 34
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 34 to the Raiders 20
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Bills 33
Punt6 plays
Bills30Raiders22
Bills30Raiders23
Touchdown11 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Bills 7
The period ended6 plays, from the Raiders 43 to the Raiders 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -3
Closing total
53
Bills moneyline
-172
Raiders moneyline
+154
Bills closed -3 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 53 and landed exactly there — a push.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Bills 7 days · Raiders 7 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Jon Gruden
1st · 10:44LV +7% win prob(10:44) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 13-G.Davis for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 14:53LV +7% win prob(14:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 11-C.Beasley for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV-29-L.Joyner was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Billscategory by categoryRaiders
Bills6
Raiders0
