For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Browns193 of 205 plays carry both curves
(3:37) 13-O.Beckham right end for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −15.2 for CowboysExpected points −4.53 for CowboysThe model had Browns 3 points higher than the market did.play 188
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:37DAL +15% win prob(3:37) 13-O.Beckham right end for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:01DAL +11% win prob(10:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:21DAL +11% win prob(12:21) (No Huddle) 80-J.Landry pass deep left to 13-O.Beckham for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:47DAL +11% win prob(3:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:23CLE +10% win prob(11:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 30 for -8 yards (95-M.Garrett). FUMBLES (95-M.Garrett), RECOVERED by CLE-54-O.Vernon at DAL 34.
2nd · 9:26DAL +9% win prob(9:26) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:13DAL +8% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Austin Hooper's 1-yard touchdown catch with 9:26 left in the 2nd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Browns ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.39Browns: +0.39 expected points added per play
+0.15Cowboys: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.38Browns: +0.38 expected points added per play
+0.17Cowboys: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.39Browns: +0.39 expected points added per play
+0.09Cowboys: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 70 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 82 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Browns 6, Cowboys 6.
NoteCowboys outgained Browns 572-510 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DAL's early-down pass rate, 80.3%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 4 — 5.8 points clear of the next team along.
66 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.5 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 63 dropbacks
Cowboys9.1%
inside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 80.3%, 21.0 points above their season mean of 59.3% and 1.9 times their own 11.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass+16% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 10:01 · Cowboys · 2nd & 11 at CLE 43 · gained 43 · +4.45 EP · +16.1% win probability
191 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 205 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 205 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 88 yards from the DAL 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
205 of 205 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
205
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
53%
Yards
1082
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR68+0.3379%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26+0.6662%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17+0.3259%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.4145%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+0.5720%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.0633%
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.2113%
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
205 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
205 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter47 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 30
Browns6Cowboys0
Browns7Cowboys0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Cowboys 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Browns7Cowboys6
Browns7Cowboys7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cowboys 12 to the Browns 42
Punt10 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Cowboys 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Browns7Cowboys13
Browns7Cowboys14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the Browns 20
The period ended8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Cowboys 34
2nd quarter51 plays
Browns13Cowboys14
Browns14Cowboys14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 18 to the Cowboys 4
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Cowboys 27 to the Cowboys 38
Browns20Cowboys14
Browns21Cowboys14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 34 to the Cowboys 1
Fumble lost2 plays
Browns27Cowboys14
Browns28Cowboys14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 49 to the Cowboys 2
Punt10 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Browns 46
Browns31Cowboys14
Field goal16 plays, from the Browns 10 to the Cowboys 19
3rd quarter41 plays
Browns37Cowboys14
Browns38Cowboys14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Cowboys 14
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Cowboys 25
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 41 to the Browns 46
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Cowboys 37 to the Browns 33
Browns41Cowboys14
Field goal9 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Cowboys 26
The period ended4 plays, from the Cowboys 23 to the Cowboys 33
4th quarter66 plays
Browns41Cowboys20
Browns41Cowboys22
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Browns 1
Drive ended5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 43
Punt3 plays
Browns41Cowboys28
Browns41Cowboys30
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the Browns 26
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Browns41Cowboys36
Browns41Cowboys38
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Browns 5
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Browns47Cowboys38
Browns49Cowboys38
Touchdown3 plays
Intercepted10 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Browns 8
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 4 to the Browns 16
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
