2020 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2020 · AT&T Stadium

Cleveland BrownsWinner

Dallas Cowboys

DAL -3.5 upsetO 56.5 ✓DomeCowboys closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cleveland Browns 49–38. Biggest swing: Q4 3:37, DAL +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 3:37CLE — DAL CLE ball · 1st & 10CLE 79%

(3:37) 13-O.Beckham right end for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 3:37DAL +15% win prob(3:37) 13-O.Beckham right end for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 10:01DAL +11% win prob(10:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 88-C.Lamb for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 12:21DAL +11% win prob(12:21) (No Huddle) 80-J.Landry pass deep left to 13-O.Beckham for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 3:47DAL +11% win prob(3:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Cowboys
Offensive plays	70	82
Total yards	510	572 (edge)
Yards per play	7.3 (edge)	7.0
Expected points added / play	0.39 (edge)	0.15
Success rate	57%	59% (edge)
Dropback rate	47%	77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.38 (edge)	0.17
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.39 (edge)	0.09
Third downs	5/11	6/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	12 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	31	39 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Cowboys outgained Browns 572–510 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

41/58, 502 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

11.3 expected points added · +0.9% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

19/30, 165 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.8 expected points added · +11.3% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

D'Ernest JohnsonRB

13 att, 95 yds, 0 TD

3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Kareem HuntRB

11 att, 71 yds, 2 TD

4.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

Amari CooperWR

12/16 for 134 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Odell BeckhamWR

5/8 for 81 yds, 2 TD

31% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 25	5	5	1:37	Punt
2	CLE	CLE 31	5	69	1:10	Touchdown
3	DAL	DAL 12	7	88	2:20	Touchdown
4	CLE	CLE 23	10	28	3:43	Punt
5	DAL	DAL 16	10	84	4:02	Touchdown
6	CLE	CLE 25	11	80	4:01	Touchdown
7	DAL	DAL 27	5	7	1:52	Fumble
8	CLE	DAL 34	5	34	1:53	Touchdown
9	DAL	DAL 25	2	24	0:11	Fumble
10	CLE	CLE 49	7	51	1:51	Touchdown
11	DAL	DAL 25	9	29	3:27	Punt
12	CLE	CLE 10	13	71	3:53	Turnover on downs
13	CLE	CLE 30	9	65	4:09	Touchdown
14	DAL	DAL 23	5	-4	1:17	Punt
15	CLE	CLE 41	4	5	1:39	Punt
16	DAL	DAL 37	9	30	2:29	Turnover on downs
17	CLE	CLE 34	8	25	4:46	Turnover on downs
18	DAL	DAL 23	13	79	3:16	Touchdown
19	CLE	CLE 25	7	15	4:03	Punt
20	DAL	DAL 16	8	81	1:50	Touchdown
21	CLE	CLE 25	5	5	0:31	Punt
22	DAL	DAL 20	12	82	2:18	Touchdown
23	CLE	50	2	50	0:17	Touchdown
24	DAL	DAL 25	10	67	1:49	Interception
25	CLE	CLE 4	4	12	1:36	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 88 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	19/30	165	2	0	2	6.8
Jarvis Landry	1/1	37	1	0	0	3.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Ernest Johnson	13	95	7.3	0	3.9
Odell Beckham	2	73	36.5	1	6.0
Kareem Hunt	11	71	6.5	2	4.4
Nick Chubb	6	43	7.2	0	1.1
Dontrell Hilliard	5	19	3.8	0	-0.9
Baker Mayfield	3	6	2.0	0	2.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Odell Beckham	5	8	81	2	31%	4.6
Jarvis Landry	5	6	48	0	23%	4.9
Harrison Bryant	4	4	37	0	15%	2.1
Austin Hooper	5	7	34	1	27%	2.8
Dontrell Hilliard	1	1	2	0	4%	2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Terrance Mitchell	11	1	0.0	0	0
Tavierre Thomas	7	0	0.0	0	0
B.J. Goodson	5	2	0.0	0	0
Karl Joseph	4	2	0.0	0	0
Denzel Ward	4	0	0.0	1	2
Sione Takitaki	1	3	0.0	0	0
Andrew Sendejo	2	2	0.0	0	0
Malcolm Smith	4	0	0.0	0	0
Myles Garrett	2	1	2.0	0	0
M.J. Stewart	2	1	1.0	0	0

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	41/58	502	4	1	3	11.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	12	54	4.5	0	-4.2
Tony Pollard	3	16	5.3	1	2.9
Dak Prescott	2	12	6.0	0	1.8
CeeDee Lamb	1	3	3.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amari Cooper	12	16	134	1	28%	6.1
CeeDee Lamb	5	7	79	2	12%	2.6
Dalton Schultz	4	8	72	1	14%	3.2
Ezekiel Elliott	8	8	71	0	14%	4.0
Noah Brown	4	4	43	0	7%	2.9
Cedrick Wilson	3	6	34	0	10%	1.1
Michael Gallup	2	5	29	0	9%	-0.2
Blake Bell	2	2	24	0	3%	1.5
Tony Pollard	1	2	16	0	3%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Donovan Wilson	6	4	1.0	0
Trevon Diggs	4	4	1.0	0
Jaylon Smith	2	5	0.0	0
Xavier Woods	3	4	0.0	0
Joe Thomas	6	0	0.0	1
Daryl Worley	5	0	0.0	0
Everson Griffen	3	1	0.0	0
Trysten Hill	2	1	0.0	0
Demarcus Lawrence	3	0	0.0	0
Darian Thompson	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -3.5
Closing total: 56.5
CLE moneyline: +157
DAL moneyline: -175

Cowboys closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 56.5; the game landed 87 — over by 30.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: CLE 7 days · DAL 7 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Mike McCarthy