2020 Week 4 · Thu, Oct 1, 2020 · MetLife Stadium

Denver BroncosWinner

New York Jets

NYJ -1 upsetO 41 ✓Jets closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Denver Broncos 37–28. Biggest swing: Q4 10:56, DEN +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 10:56DEN — NYJ DEN ball · 3rd & 10DEN 86%

(10:56) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short right intended for 10-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 35-P.Desir [91-J.Franklin] at DEN 35. 35-P.Desir for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 10:56DEN +25% win prob(10:56) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short right intended for 10-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 35-P.Desir [91-J.Franklin] at DEN 35. 35-P.Desir for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 8:43DEN +22% win prob(8:43) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short right intended for 88-N.Vannett INTERCEPTED by 34-B.Poole at DEN 46. 34-B.Poole to DEN 44 for 2 yards (88-N.Vannett).
Q4 · 2:05DEN +22% win prob(2:05) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at NYJ 43 for -7 yards (55-B.Chubb).
Q4 · 3:13NYJ +21% win prob(3:13) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Jets
Offensive plays	58	75
Total yards	364 (edge)	321
Yards per play	6.3 (edge)	4.3
Expected points added / play	0.04 (edge)	-0.18
Success rate	41% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	53%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	-0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	-0.31
Third downs	6/11 (edge)	8/19
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	14	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	6
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Brett RypienQB

19/31, 242 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

1.2 expected points added · +5.3% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

23/42, 230 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-13.8 expected points added · -4.9% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Melvin GordonRB

23 att, 107 yds, 2 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

6 att, 84 yds, 1 TD

8.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Tim PatrickWR

6/7 for 113 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 10.8 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Jamison CrowderWR

7/10 for 104 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 25	11	75	3:35	Touchdown
2	DEN	DEN 8	11	52	6:40	Turnover on downs
3	NYJ	NYJ 25	10	39	4:52	Punt
4	DEN	DEN 30	4	55	1:44	Touchdown
5	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	-3	1:35	Punt
6	DEN	DEN 35	2	0	0:29	Interception
7	NYJ	NYJ 37	10	41	4:44	Turnover on downs
8	NYJ	DEN 25	12	80	4:44	Touchdown
9	NYJ	NYJ 25	12	55	1:22	Turnover on downs
10	DEN	DEN 25	2	0	0:15	End of half
11	DEN	DEN 25	5	2	1:37	Punt
12	NYJ	NYJ 40	5	8	2:00	Turnover on downs
13	DEN	DEN 25	15	75	6:52	Touchdown
14	NYJ	NYJ 25	10	18	3:39	Punt
15	DEN	NYJ 44	4	8	1:41	Turnover on downs
16	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	39	2:27	Turnover on downs
17	DEN	DEN 25	4	0	0:59	Defensive touchdown
18	DEN	DEN 25	5	14	2:08	Interception
19	NYJ	DEN 44	6	25	2:14	Turnover on downs
20	DEN	DEN 25	10	35	3:15	Turnover on downs
21	NYJ	NYJ 25	8	18	1:08	Turnover on downs
22	DEN	NYJ 43	2	43	0:12	Touchdown
23	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	6	0:45	Turnover on downs
24	DEN	NYJ 31	4	0	1:03	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brett Rypien	19/31	242	2	3	0	1.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Melvin Gordon	23	107	4.7	2	0.9
Jeff Driskel	1	9	9.0	0	1.4
Royce Freeman	3	6	2.0	0	-1.2
Brett Rypien	5	-5	-1.0	0	-4.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tim Patrick	6	7	113	1	25%	10.8
Jerry Jeudy	2	4	61	1	14%	-1.4
Noah Fant	5	6	35	0	21%	2.1
Melvin Gordon	2	3	11	0	11%	-0.0
DaeSean Hamilton	1	3	9	0	11%	-3.8
Nick Vannett	1	2	7	0	7%	-3.9
Royce Freeman	2	2	6	0	7%	0.4
Jake Butt	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Josey Jewell	7	2	2.0	1
Bryce Callahan	6	1	0.0	1
Alexander Johnson	3	3	1.0	0
Kareem Jackson	5	1	0.0	0
Justin Simmons	5	0	0.0	0
Bradley Chubb	3	2	2.5	0
Malik Reed	2	2	0.0	0
Mike Purcell	2	2	0.0	0
De'Vante Bausby	3	0	0.0	3
Essang Bassey	3	0	0.0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	23/42	230	0	0	6	-13.8
Joe Flacco	2/2	16	0	0	0	-0.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Sam Darnold	6	84	14.0	1	8.0
Frank Gore	13	30	2.3	0	-4.7
La'Mical Perine	5	15	3.0	0	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jamison Crowder	7	10	104	23%	4.3
Jeff Smith	7	9	81	21%	2.0
Chris Hogan	4	8	23	19%	-1.3
Kalen Ballage	2	3	11	7%	-0.3
Christopher Herndon	1	3	11	7%	-0.6
Ryan Griffin	3	3	10	7%	-0.4
Frank Gore	1	2	6	5%	-1.7
Braxton Berrios	0	3	0	7%	-1.9
Lawrence Cager	0	2	0	5%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Neville Hewitt	5	4	0	0
Pierre Desir	7	1	2	2
Avery Williamson	3	3	0	1
Brian Poole	4	0	1	1
Bradley McDougald	4	0	0	0
Quinnen Williams	2	1	0	0
Marcus Maye	1	1	0	0
Lamar Jackson	2	0	0	1
Henry Anderson	1	1	0	0
Thomas Hennessy	1	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NYJ -1
Closing total: 41
DEN moneyline: +104
NYJ moneyline: -114

Jets closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41; the game landed 65 — over by 24.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 64°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: DEN 4 days · NYJ 4 days
Coaches: Vic Fangio vs Adam Gase