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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Denver Broncos 37, Jets 28 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 10:56, 3rd and 10, on Pierre Desir — 25.4 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 10:56 · 3rd and 10
Pierre Desir
Jets
(10:56) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short right intended for 10-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 35-P.Desir [91-J.Franklin] at DEN 35. 35-P.Desir for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Jets closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Denver Broncos 37–28. Biggest swing: Q4 10:56, Jets +25.4% win probability on one snap.
25.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Brian PooleJetsQ4 8:43(8:43) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short right intended for 88-N.Vannett INTERCEPTED by 34-B.Poole at DEN 46. 34-B.Poole to DEN 44 for 2 yards (88-N.Vannett).
21.9pts
Sam DarnoldBroncosQ4 2:05(2:05) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at NYJ 43 for -7 yards (55-B.Chubb).
21.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Jets owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Broncos at 3 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 2 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — +0.04 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.18 expected points per snap.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Broncos187 of 199 plays carry both curves
(10:56) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short right intended for 10-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 35-P.Desir [91-J.Franklin] at DEN 35. 35-P.Desir for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +25.4 for JetsExpected points +6.47 for JetsModel and market agree here.play 149
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 10:56DEN +25% win prob(10:56) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short right intended for 10-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 35-P.Desir [91-J.Franklin] at DEN 35. 35-P.Desir for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:43DEN +22% win prob(8:43) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short right intended for 88-N.Vannett INTERCEPTED by 34-B.Poole at DEN 46. 34-B.Poole to DEN 44 for 2 yards (88-N.Vannett).
4th · 2:05DEN +22% win prob(2:05) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at NYJ 43 for -7 yards (55-B.Chubb).
4th · 3:13NYJ +21% win prob(3:13) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.
4th · 4:11NYJ +21% win prob(4:11) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass deep left to 81-T.Patrick ran ob at NYJ 22 for 31 yards.
4th · 3:17DEN +16% win prob(3:17) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on DEN-4-B.Rypien, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 25.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brandon McManus's 53-yard field goal with 3:13 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Broncos ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Broncos: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.18Jets: −0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.04Broncos: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.13Jets: −0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Broncos: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.31Jets: −0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 58 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Jets’s 75 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 6, Jets 6.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's early-down pass rate turned over: 51.1% in week 3 against 67.9% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
DEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 75.0% in week 3 against 42.6% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · +1.2 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Jets16.1%
right on their number · +3.0 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 67.9%, 14.6 points above their season mean of 53.4% and 1.9 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Rypien pass−31% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:56) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass short right intended for 10-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 35-P.Desir [91-J.Franklin] at DEN 35. 35-P.Desir for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 10:56 · Broncos · 3rd & 10 at DEN 25 · gained nothing · -6.47 EP · −30.6% win probability
185 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 199 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 199 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 75 yards from the NYJ 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
199 of 199 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
199
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
37%
Yards
680
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR65-0.1469%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.2160%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.3741%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.6860%
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
199 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
199 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFive
Broncos0Jets6
Broncos0Jets7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Broncos 46
Broncos3Jets7
Field goal14 plays, from the Broncos 8 to the Jets 15
The period ended12 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Broncos 42
2nd quarter56 plays
Punt1 play
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Broncos9Jets7
Broncos10Jets7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Jets 48
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.7 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Broncos 35 to midfield
Drive ended11 plays, from the Jets 37 to the Broncos 10
Broncos10Jets10
Field goal1 play
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Broncos16Jets10
Broncos17Jets10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Jets 1
Broncos17Jets13
Field goal14 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Broncos 20
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 27
Broncos17Jets16
Field goal6 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Broncos 14
Broncos23Jets16
Broncos24Jets16
Touchdown16 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Jets 7
Punt10 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Broncos 48
The period ended3 plays, from the Jets 44 to the Jets 42
4th quarter64 plays
Broncos27Jets16
Field goal2 plays, from the Jets 43 to the Jets 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Broncos27Jets19
Field goal8 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Broncos 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Broncos27Jets25
Touchdown4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 39
Broncos27Jets28
Field goal6 plays, from the Broncos 44 to the Broncos 19
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Broncos30Jets28
Field goal11 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Jets 22
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFive
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Jets 25 to midfield
Broncos36Jets28
Broncos37Jets28
Touchdown2 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 31
The period ended11 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Jets 19
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Jets -1
Closing total
41
Broncos moneyline
+104
Jets moneyline
-114
Jets closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41; the game landed 65 — over by 24.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 66°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the west; 0.01 in of precipitation; partly cloudy.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Broncos 4 days · Jets 4 days
Coaches
Vic Fangio vs Adam Gase
2nd · 13:17
NYJ +14% win prob
(13:17) 4-B.Rypien pass deep right to 10-J.Jeudy for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 12:57NYJ +13% win prob(12:57) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 16-J.Smith (23-M.Ojemudia). PENALTY on DEN-23-M.Ojemudia, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards, enforced at NYJ 42 - No Play.
