2020 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2020 · Soldier Field

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

Chicago Bears

IND -3.5 ✓U 43.5 ✓Colts closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Indianapolis Colts 19–11. Biggest swing: Q1 10:11, CHI +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:11IND — CHI IND ball · 3rd & 9IND 65%

(10:11) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 14-Z.Pascal to CHI 18 for 36 yards (38-Ta.Gipson) [96-A.Hicks].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:11CHI +9% win prob(10:11) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 14-Z.Pascal to CHI 18 for 36 yards (38-Ta.Gipson) [96-A.Hicks].
Q1 · 8:15CHI +9% win prob(8:15) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 7:49CHI +5% win prob(7:49) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to CHI 43 for 12 yards (94-R.Quinn). PENALTY on CHI-94-R.Quinn, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 43.
Q1 · 12:52IND +5% win prob(12:52) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 84-C.Patterson to CHI 30 for no gain (37-K.Willis).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Bears
Offensive plays	65	59
Total yards	293 (edge)	272
Yards per play	4.5	4.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.00 (edge)	-0.15
Success rate	35% (edge)	32%
Dropback rate	46%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.22 (edge)	-0.11
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.19 (edge)	-0.27
Third downs	8/18 (edge)	4/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	14	15 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Nick FolesQB

26/42, 249 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-4.6 expected points added · -5.0% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Philip RiversQB

16/29, 190 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

6.7 expected points added · -6.4% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

17 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

10 att, 27 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Allen RobinsonWR

7/10 for 101 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Zach PascalWR

3/8 for 58 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 0.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 18	7	12	3:17	Punt
2	IND	IND 47	7	65	3:35	Touchdown
3	CHI	CHI 25	7	15	2:25	Punt
4	IND	IND 13	4	5	0:49	Punt
5	CHI	CHI 41	7	14	3:17	Punt
6	IND	IND 7	6	36	2:18	Punt
7	CHI	CHI 7	9	84	4:55	Turnover on downs
8	IND	IND 30	15	52	5:37	Turnover on downs
9	CHI	CHI 25	5	0	1:42	Punt
10	IND	IND 45	8	20	1:59	Turnover on downs
11	CHI	CHI 34	2	0	0:06	End of half
12	IND	IND 23	5	6	2:10	Punt
13	CHI	CHI 24	4	-3	1:45	Punt
14	IND	CHI 49	4	0	0:57	Punt
15	CHI	CHI 5	9	33	4:02	Fumble
16	IND	IND 20	10	54	5:11	Turnover on downs
17	CHI	CHI 17	5	8	1:49	Punt
18	IND	IND 37	4	3	1:05	Punt
19	CHI	CHI 20	9	17	2:02	Interception
20	IND	IND 22	13	51	7:12	Turnover on downs
21	CHI	CHI 10	10	92	2:12	Touchdown
22	IND	CHI 46	5	1	1:35	Turnover on downs

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 92 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	16/29	190	1	0	1	6.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	17	68	4.0	1.7
Nyheim Miller-Hines	9	24	2.7	-4.4
Jordan Wilkins	9	15	1.7	-4.1
Philip Rivers	3	-4	-1.3	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zach Pascal	3	8	58	0	29%	0.2
T.Y. Hilton	3	5	29	0	18%	0.7
Marcus Johnson	1	1	27	0	4%	2.7
Jordan Wilkins	1	1	16	0	4%	2.0
Trey Burton	2	5	16	0	18%	-0.6
Mo Alie-Cox	1	2	13	1	7%	1.9
Jack Doyle	1	1	12	0	4%	2.2
Jonathan Taylor	1	1	11	0	4%	0.3
Nyheim Miller-Hines	3	3	8	0	11%	-1.1
Daurice Fountain	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Anthony Walker	9	2	0.0	0
Bobby Okereke	6	2	0.0	0
George Odum	4	2	0.0	0
Kenny Moore	5	0	0.0	0
Justin Houston	3	1	1.0	0
Grover Stewart	1	2	0.0	0
Xavier Rhodes	3	0	0.0	2
Khari Willis	3	0	0.0	0
DeForest Buckner	1	2	0.0	1
Al-Quadin Muhammad	1	0	0.0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Foles	26/42	249	1	1	1	-4.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Montgomery	10	27	2.7	-0.3
Cordarrelle Patterson	3	5	1.7	-2.7
Nick Foles	2	-1	-0.5	-0.8
Darnell Mooney	1	-3	-3.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Robinson	7	10	101	1	24%	5.0
Darnell Mooney	5	9	52	0	21%	-2.5
Jimmy Graham	4	5	33	0	12%	1.7
David Montgomery	3	6	30	0	14%	0.4
Anthony Miller	3	5	16	0	12%	-3.8
Ted Ginn	2	2	11	0	5%	-0.6
Demetrius Harris	1	2	6	0	5%	-1.1
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	2	0	0	5%	-1.8
Cole Kmet	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Roquan Smith	10	3	0.0	0
Tashaun Gipson	8	1	0.0	1
Akiem Hicks	3	3	0.0	0
Brent Urban	2	3	1.0	0
Eddie Jackson	3	1	0.0	0
Danny Trevathan	3	1	0.0	0
Bilal Nichols	3	0	0.0	0
Josh Woods	3	0	0.0	0
Kyle Fuller	2	0	0.0	1
James Vaughters	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -3.5
Closing total: 43.5
IND moneyline: -174
CHI moneyline: +156

Colts closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 30 — under by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 52°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: IND 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Matt Nagy