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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
Indianapolis Colts 19, Bears 11 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 10:11, 3rd and 9, on Zach Pascal — 9.3 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:11 · 3rd and 9
Zach Pascal
Colts
(10:11) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 14-Z.Pascal to CHI 18 for 36 yards (38-Ta.Gipson) [96-A.Hicks].
Colts closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Indianapolis Colts 19–11. Biggest swing: Q1 10:11, Colts +9.3% win probability on one snap.
9.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mo Alie-CoxColtsQ1 8:15(8:15) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.6pts
Jonathan TaylorColtsQ2 7:49(7:49) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to CHI 43 for 12 yards (94-R.Quinn). PENALTY on CHI-94-R.Quinn, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 43.
5.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Colts won this one — no giveaways, against Bears at 2 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Colts won this one — 8 of 18 on third down, against Bears at 4 of 14 on third down.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Colts won this one — +0.22 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.11 expected points per dropback.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Colts at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Colts167 of 180 plays carry both curves
(10:11) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 14-Z.Pascal to CHI 18 for 36 yards (38-Ta.Gipson) [96-A.Hicks].
Swing −9.3 for BearsExpected points −3.90 for BearsThe model had Bears 17 points higher than the market did.play 15
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:11CHI +9% win prob(10:11) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 14-Z.Pascal to CHI 18 for 36 yards (38-Ta.Gipson) [96-A.Hicks].
1st · 8:15CHI +9% win prob(8:15) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 7:49CHI +5% win prob(7:49) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left tackle to CHI 43 for 12 yards (94-R.Quinn). PENALTY on CHI-94-R.Quinn, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 43.
1st · 12:52IND +5% win prob(12:52) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 84-C.Patterson to CHI 30 for no gain (37-K.Willis).
3rd · 1:00CHI +5% win prob(1:00) 3-R.Blankenship 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
2nd · 1:12CHI +4% win prob(1:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Hilton [96-A.Hicks]. PENALTY on CHI-23-K.Fuller, Defensive Pass Interference, 28 yards, enforced at CHI 38 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mo Alie-Cox's 13-yard touchdown catch with 8:15 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:15Mo Alie-Cox·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip RiversLead never changed again+77–0
2nd9:28Cairo Santos·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+37–3
2nd3:50Rodrigo Blankenship·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+310–3
2nd0:10Rodrigo Blankenship·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+313–3
3rd1:00Rodrigo Blankenship·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+316–3
4th3:51Rodrigo Blankenship·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+319–3
4th1:41Allen Robinson·16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Folesfrom Nick Foles · two-point good+819–11
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryBears
Colts5–2Bears
293Total yards272
4.5Yards per play4.6
35%Success rate32%
44%Third-down rate29%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays4
14First downs15
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers2
The read
Colts ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.00Colts: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.15Bears: −0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.22Colts: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.11Bears: −0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Colts: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.27Bears: −0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 65 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Bears’s 59 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Colts 4, Bears 2.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's early-down pass rate, 32.6%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 4 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Bears10.0%
inside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteIND's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 32.6%, 20.1 points below their season mean of 52.7% and 1.7 times their own 12.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
72Braden SmithG · Every snap100%72 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Every snap100%72 snaps
64Mark GlowinskiG · Every snap100%72 snaps
17Philip RiversQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
78Ryan KellyC · Every snap100%72 snaps
74Anthony CastonzoT · Full-time94%68 snaps
14Zach PascalWR · Heavy rotation75%54 snaps
13T.Y. HiltonWR · Heavy rotation75%54 snaps
84Jack DoyleTE · Heavy rotation63%45 snaps
80Trey BurtonTE · Heavy rotation50%36 snaps
83Marcus JohnsonWR · Rotational47%34 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational46%33 snaps
28Jonathan TaylorRB · Rotational46%33 snaps
21Nyheim HinesRB · Rotational35%25 snaps
16Ashton DulinWR · Rotational25%18 snaps
10Daurice FountainWR · Situational21%15 snaps
20Jordan WilkinsRB · Situational17%12 snaps
62Le'Raven ClarkOG · Situational6%4 snaps
63Danny PinterOG · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
T.J. CarrieCBRon'Dell CarterDEEli AnkouDTJacob EasonQBNoah TogiaiTEDezmon PatmonWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Rivers pass+14% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:11) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 14-Z.Pascal to CHI 18 for 36 yards (38-Ta.Gipson) [96-A.Hicks].
Q1 10:11 · Colts · 3rd & 9 at IND 46 · gained 36 · +3.90 EP · +14.1% win probability
165 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 90 yards from the CHI 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
34%
Yards
560
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.2253%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.0879%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR15+0.3520%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.0275%
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR7-0.8957%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Bears0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR2——
Colts0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 18 to the Bears 35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Colts6Bears0
Colts7Bears0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 47 to the Bears 13
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 40
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 13 to the Colts 18
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 41 to the Colts 40
The period ended5 plays, from the Colts 7 to the Colts 34
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Colts 43
Colts7Bears3
Field goal10 plays, from the Bears 7 to the Colts 9
Colts10Bears3
Field goal15 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Bears 3
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 28
Colts13Bears3
Field goal11 plays, from the Colts 45 to the Bears 8
The period ended3 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 23 to the Colts 32
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 5 to the Bears 38
Colts16Bears3
Field goal10 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Bears 22
The period ended4 plays, from the Bears 17 to the Bears 22
4th quarter52 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 37 to the Colts 40
Intercepted11 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Colts 26
Colts19Bears3
Field goal16 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Bears 10
Colts19Bears9
Colts19Bears11
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 10 to the Colts 16
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Bears 46 to the Bears 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Colts -3.5
Closing total
43.5
Colts moneyline
-174
Bears moneyline
+156
Colts closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 30 — under by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 53°F at kickoff; breezy at 14 mph out of the north; mainly clear.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Colts 7 days · Bears 7 days
Coaches
Frank Reich vs Matt Nagy
1st · 11:19IND +4% win prob(11:19) 28-J.Taylor right guard to CHI 44 for 11 yards (58-R.Smith). PENALTY on IND-84-J.Doyle, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 45 - No Play.
2nd · 12:56CHI +4% win prob(12:56) 9-N.Foles pass deep middle to 12-A.Robinson to IND 31 for 27 yards (32-J.Blackmon).
