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2020 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2020 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
JaguarsJacksonville25
BY 8final margin
BengalsCincinnati33
Jacksonville Jaguars 25 at Cincinnati Bengals 33. Final.
Bengals -1 ✓O 50 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 4
Cincinnati Bengals 33, Jaguars 25 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 9:25, 3rd and 1, on Myles Jack — 13.9 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:25 · 3rd and 1
Myles Jack
Jaguars
(9:25) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 89-D.Sample INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Jack at JAX -5. Touchback (89-D.Sample).
Bengals closed -1 and covered, winning by 8.
Cincinnati Bengals 33–25. Biggest swing: Q2 9:25, Jaguars +13.9% win probability on one snap.
13.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tee HigginsBengalsQ2 11:29(11:29) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 85-T.Higgins to JAX 8 for 30 yards (27-C.Claybrooks).
8.6pts
Joe MixonBengalsQ3 12:37(12:37) 28-J.Mixon right end for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bengals won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 9 chunk plays.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.26 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at +0.02 expected points per carry.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bengals won this one — 4 of 11 on third down, against Jaguars at 2 of 9 on third down.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Bengals at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Jaguars176 of 188 plays carry both curves
(9:25) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 89-D.Sample INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Jack at JAX -5. Touchback (89-D.Sample).
Swing −13.9 for BengalsExpected points −6.38 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 3 points higher than the market did.play 55
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 9:25JAX +14% win prob(9:25) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 89-D.Sample INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Jack at JAX -5. Touchback (89-D.Sample).
3rd · 12:37CIN +9% win prob(12:37) 28-J.Mixon right end for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:29CIN +9% win prob(11:29) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 85-T.Higgins to JAX 8 for 30 yards (27-C.Claybrooks).
1st · 13:04JAX +9% win prob(13:04) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short middle intended for 88-T.Eifert INTERCEPTED by 50-J.Evans (30-J.Bates III) at JAX 43. 50-J.Evans to JAX 43 for no gain (88-T.Eifert). {Ball was deflected at JAX 47 by CIN 30 and intercepted at JAX 43}
1st · 0:27CIN +7% win prob(:27) 15-G.Minshew II pass short left to 17-D.Chark Jr. for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:11CIN +7% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon up the middle to JAX 9 for 2 yards (94-D.Smoot).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Joe Mixon's 34-yard rushing touchdown with 12:37 left in the 3rd put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st2:46Randy Bullock·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+30–3
4th1:50Randy Bullock·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+322–33
4th0:12Aldrick Rosas·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+325–33
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryBengals
Jaguars1–7Bengals
429Total yards507
6.8Yards per play7.3
48%Success rate52%
22%Third-down rate36%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
9Explosive plays12
21First downs27
3Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Bengals ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Jaguars: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.25Bengals: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.22Jaguars: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.24Bengals: +0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Jaguars: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.26Bengals: +0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 63 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Bengals’s 69 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 5, Bengals 6.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 27 pts
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Bengals8.9%
inside their normal wobble · −3.6 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was JAX's early-down pass rate, 69.2% against a season mean of 62.6% — and JAX swings 7.6 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
68Andrew NorwellG · Every snap100%68 snaps
75Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%68 snaps
60A.J. CannG · Every snap100%68 snaps
15Gardner MinshewQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
69Tyler ShatleyC · Every snap100%68 snaps
17D.J. CharkWR · Full-time85%58 snaps
74Cam RobinsonT · Heavy rotation78%53 snaps
30James RobinsonRB · Heavy rotation76%52 snaps
84Keelan ColeWR · Heavy rotation74%50 snaps
88Tyler EifertTE · Heavy rotation68%46 snaps
10Laviska Shenault Jr.WR · Heavy rotation54%37 snaps
80James O'ShaughnessyTE · Heavy rotation51%35 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass−16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:25) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 89-D.Sample INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Jack at JAX -5. Touchback (89-D.Sample).
Q2 9:25 · Bengals · 3rd & goal at JAX 1 · gained nothing · -6.38 EP · −15.5% win probability
174 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 88 yards from the CIN 11 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
45%
Yards
934
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.2277%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.4245%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.4382%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.2371%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.3040%
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5-0.3780%
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Bengals0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 41
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 43 to the Jaguars 40
No good10 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Bengals 30
Jaguars0Bengals3
Field goal10 plays, from the Bengals 38 to the Jaguars 16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Jaguars6Bengals3
Jaguars7Bengals3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Bengals 11
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back and three tight endsDefense on the fieldFive linemen, three linebackers and three backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxTen defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted12 plays, from the Bengals 26 to the Jaguars 1
Jaguars10Bengals3
Field goal11 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Bengals 14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Jaguars10Bengals9
Jaguars10Bengals10
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Jaguars 9
Jaguars13Bengals10
Field goal10 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Bengals 2
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Jaguars13Bengals16
Jaguars13Bengals17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Jaguars 34
Punt6 plays
Jaguars13Bengals23
Jaguars13Bengals24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 39 to the Jaguars 23
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 32
Jaguars13Bengals27
Field goal9 plays, from the Bengals 41 to the Jaguars 22
The period ended9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Bengals 25
4th quarter50 plays
Jaguars16Bengals27
Field goal2 plays
Jaguars16Bengals30
Field goal12 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Jaguars 28
Jaguars22Bengals30
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Bengals 2
Jaguars22Bengals33
Field goal14 plays, from the Bengals 22 to the Jaguars 11
Jaguars25Bengals33
Field goal7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Bengals 12
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
