2020 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2020 · Paul Brown Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

CIN -1 ✓O 50 ✓Bengals closed -1 and covered, winning by 8.

Cincinnati Bengals 33–25. Biggest swing: Q2 9:25, JAX +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 9:25JAX — CIN CIN ball · 3rd & 1CIN 55%

(9:25) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 89-D.Sample INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Jack at JAX -5. Touchback (89-D.Sample).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 9:25JAX +14% win prob(9:25) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 89-D.Sample INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Jack at JAX -5. Touchback (89-D.Sample).
Q3 · 12:37CIN +9% win prob(12:37) 28-J.Mixon right end for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 11:29CIN +9% win prob(11:29) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 85-T.Higgins to JAX 8 for 30 yards (27-C.Claybrooks).
Q1 · 13:04JAX +9% win prob(13:04) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II pass short middle intended for 88-T.Eifert INTERCEPTED by 50-J.Evans (30-J.Bates III) at JAX 43. 50-J.Evans to JAX 43 for no gain (88-T.Eifert). {Ball was deflected at JAX 47 by CIN 30 and intercepted at JAX 43}

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Bengals
Offensive plays	63	69
Total yards	429	507 (edge)
Yards per play	6.8	7.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.16	0.25 (edge)
Success rate	48%	52% (edge)
Dropback rate	71%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.22	0.24 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02	0.26 (edge)
Third downs	2/9	4/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Gardner MinshewQB

27/40, 351 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

10.3 expected points added · +8.0% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

25/36, 300 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

8.9 expected points added · +7.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

25 att, 151 yds, 2 TD

5.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

17 att, 75 yds, 0 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

D.J. CharkWR

8/9 for 95 yds, 2 TD

25% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Tyler BoydWR

7/8 for 90 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 25	6	16	2:02	Interception
2	CIN	JAX 43	4	3	1:28	Punt
3	JAX	JAX 20	9	45	4:52	Turnover on downs
4	CIN	CIN 38	9	55	3:57	Turnover on downs
5	JAX	JAX 25	7	40	2:20	Touchdown
6	CIN	CIN 11	13	83	6:00	Interception
7	JAX	JAX 20	11	66	5:36	Turnover on downs
8	CIN	CIN 25	11	75	2:49	Touchdown
9	JAX	JAX 25	9	73	0:53	Turnover on downs
10	CIN	CIN 25	2	0	0:03	End of half
11	CIN	CIN 25	7	75	2:31	Touchdown
12	JAX	JAX 25	6	5	0:52	Punt
13	CIN	CIN 39	8	56	3:09	Touchdown
14	JAX	JAX 25	5	7	1:34	Punt
15	CIN	CIN 41	8	37	3:25	Turnover on downs
16	JAX	JAX 25	10	43	3:56	Turnover on downs
17	CIN	CIN 25	11	57	5:13	Turnover on downs
18	JAX	JAX 25	10	71	3:06	Touchdown
19	CIN	CIN 22	11	66	4:28	Turnover on downs
20	JAX	JAX 25	7	63	1:38	Turnover on downs
21	CIN	JAX 45	2	0	0:08	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 83 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a interception.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Gardner Minshew	27/40	351	2	1	3	10.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Robinson	17	75	4.4	0.1
Gardner Minshew	2	9	4.5	-1.4
Laviska Shenault Jr.	1	5	5.0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Chark	8	9	95	2	25%	9.3
Laviska Shenault Jr.	5	6	86	0	17%	5.7
Keelan Cole	4	5	46	0	14%	1.2
Chris Conley	3	4	44	0	11%	2.5
James Robinson	4	4	32	0	11%	3.2
James O'Shaughnessy	1	2	26	0	6%	1.1
Tyler Eifert	2	6	22	0	17%	-5.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Josh Jones	6	4	0	0
Andrew Wingard	5	5	0	1
Chris Claybrooks	6	2	0	1
Dakota Allen	2	4	0	0
Joe Schobert	2	4	0	0
Davon Hamilton	1	4	0	0
Myles Jack	3	1	1	1
Dawuane Smoot	3	0	0	0
D.J. Hayden	3	0	0	1
Tre Herndon	2	0	0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	25/36	300	1	1	1	8.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	25	151	6.0	2	5.5
Giovani Bernard	2	19	9.5	0	1.1
Tee Higgins	1	13	13.0	0	1.0
Joe Burrow	4	11	2.8	0	-0.4
Alex Erickson	1	7	7.0	0	0.3
Tyler Boyd	1	4	4.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Boyd	7	8	90	0	23%	7.2
Tee Higgins	4	7	77	0	20%	4.7
Drew Sample	3	5	47	0	14%	-4.0
Joe Mixon	6	6	30	1	17%	3.5
Cethan Carter	1	1	24	0	3%	1.5
Auden Tate	1	1	15	0	3%	2.0
Alex Erickson	1	1	9	0	3%	-0.2
Mike Thomas	1	1	5	0	3%	0.0
A.J. Green	1	5	3	0	14%	-4.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jessie Bates	6	4	2
LeShaun Sims	5	2	1
Vonn Bell	2	3	0
William Jackson	4	1	0
D.J. Reader	2	3	0
Christian Covington	1	3	0
Sam Hubbard	2	2	0
Josh Bynes	1	3	0
Germaine Pratt	2	2	0
Darius Phillips	2	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -1
Closing total: 50
JAX moneyline: +101
CIN moneyline: -112

Bengals closed -1 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 50; the game landed 58 — over by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 64°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: JAX 10 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Doug Marrone vs Zac Taylor