2020 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium

Los Angeles Chargers

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

TB -7.5 no coverO 42.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -7.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38–31. Biggest swing: Q3 0:12, TB +28% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 0:12LAC — TB LAC ball · 3rd & 7TB 80%

(:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-J.Guyton for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 0:12TB +28% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-J.Guyton for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 4:08LAC +25% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 17-J.Watson INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Davis at LAC 22. 43-M.Davis for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 12:51TB +18% win prob(12:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-M.Evans to LAC 7 for 48 yards (24-N.Adderley).
Q2 · 0:47LAC +15% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 27-J.Kelley up the middle to LAC 6 for -3 yards (93-N.Suh). FUMBLES (93-N.Suh), RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at LAC 8. 45-D.White to LAC 6 for 2 yards (72-R.Groy).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	49	70
Total yards	325	487 (edge)
Yards per play	6.6	7.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.12	0.17 (edge)
Success rate	35%	53% (edge)
Dropback rate	59%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.55 (edge)	0.28
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.50	-0.02 (edge)
Third downs	4/10	5/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	26 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

30/46, 369 yds, 5 TD, 1 INT

12.7 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

20/25, 290 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

13.7 expected points added · +14.0% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Ronald JonesRB

20 att, 111 yds, 0 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

5 att, 14 yds, 0 TD

1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

7/8 for 122 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Scott MillerWR

5/7 for 83 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	12	75	5:00	Touchdown
2	LAC	LAC 25	6	75	1:46	Touchdown
3	TB	TB 33	8	35	4:19	Defensive touchdown
4	TB	TB 25	5	6	2:01	Punt
5	LAC	LAC 22	4	2	0:54	Punt
6	TB	TB 37	4	0	0:55	Punt
7	LAC	LAC 3	14	65	6:15	Touchdown
8	TB	TB 29	10	45	3:56	Turnover on downs
9	LAC	LAC 34	8	41	3:17	Turnover on downs
10	TB	TB 25	8	10	0:50	Punt
11	LAC	LAC 9	1	-1	0:09	Fumble
12	TB	LAC 6	4	6	0:16	Touchdown
13	LAC	LAC 25	6	-5	0:22	Punt
14	LAC	LAC 25	1	0	2:10	Turnover on downs
15	TB	TB 31	9	69	4:28	Touchdown
16	TB	LAC 25	15	124	6:42	Touchdown
18	LAC	LAC 25	5	75	0:52	Touchdown
19	TB	TB 25	9	90	3:55	Touchdown
20	LAC	LAC 25	5	9	2:20	Punt
21	TB	TB 21	12	72	6:05	Turnover on downs
22	LAC	LAC 25	3	3	0:18	Interception
23	TB	TB 41	5	16	2:22	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 124 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	20/25	290	3	1	2	13.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Justin Herbert	5	14	2.8	1.6
Austin Ekeler	2	12	6.0	0.9
Justin Jackson	6	9	1.5	-3.2
Joshua Kelley	9	7	0.8	-6.8
Gabe Nabers	1	4	4.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jalen Guyton	1	1	72	1	4%	7.2
Keenan Allen	8	11	62	0	44%	-1.4
Tyron Johnson	1	1	53	1	4%	4.6
Hunter Henry	2	4	39	0	16%	1.9
Joshua Kelley	3	3	26	0	12%	2.3
Donald Parham	1	1	19	1	4%	2.9
Justin Jackson	2	2	12	0	8%	0.4
Gabe Nabers	1	1	5	0	4%	-0.1
Austin Ekeler	1	1	2	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Kenneth Murray	5	4	0	0
Kyzir White	6	2	0	1
Denzel Perryman	2	4	0	1
Michael Davis	3	2	1	1
Casey Hayward	4	1	0	0
Uchenna Nwosu	2	2	0	2
Nasir Adderley	4	0	0	0
Desmond King	3	1	0	0
Rayshawn Jenkins	1	2	0	0
Jerry Tillery	1	2	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	30/46	369	5	1	0	12.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ronald Jones	20	111	5.5	1.2
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	3	4	1.3	-1.4
LeSean McCoy	1	3	3.0	-0.3
Tom Brady	3	-3	-1.0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	7	8	122	1	18%	10.2
Scott Miller	5	7	83	1	16%	5.3
O.J. Howard	3	6	50	1	13%	2.7
Justin Watson	4	6	40	0	13%	-7.6
Rob Gronkowski	1	3	29	0	7%	1.5
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	2	3	22	1	7%	2.9
Ronald Jones	6	9	17	0	20%	-3.6
LeSean McCoy	1	1	3	0	2%	-0.9
Cameron Brate	1	1	3	1	2%	2.1
Kenjon Barner	0	1	0	0	2%	1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Lavonte David	9	1	0.0	0	1
Shaquil Barrett	4	2	1.0	0	0
Jordan Whitehead	4	0	1.0	0	0
Ndamukong Suh	1	3	0.0	0	0
Devin White	1	3	0.0	0	0
William Gholston	2	1	0.0	0	0
Carlton Davis	2	1	0.0	1	2
Vita Vea	2	0	0.0	0	0
Jamel Dean	2	0	0.0	0	0
Antoine Winfield	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -7.5
Closing total: 42.5
LAC moneyline: +282
TB moneyline: -331

Buccaneers closed -7.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 69 — over by 26.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 75°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: LAC 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Anthony Lynn vs Bruce Arians