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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:35 AM ET · 16 to play
2020 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
ChargersLos Angeles31
BY 7final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay38
Los Angeles Chargers 31 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38. Final.
Buccaneers -7.5 no cover
The verdict · 2020 Week 4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38, Chargers 31 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 0:12, 3rd and 7, on Jalen Guyton — 28.1 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 0:12 · 3rd and 7
Jalen Guyton
Chargers
(:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-J.Guyton for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 42.5 ✓
Buccaneers closed -7.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38–31. Biggest swing: Q3 0:12, Chargers +28.1% win probability on one snap.
28.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Michael DavisChargersQ1 4:08(4:08) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 17-J.Watson INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Davis at LAC 22. 43-M.Davis for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
24.9pts
Mike EvansBuccaneersQ4 12:51(12:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-M.Evans to LAC 7 for 48 yards (24-N.Adderley).
18.3pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Buccaneers won this one — -0.02 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.50 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Chargers at 4 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Buccaneers won this one — 4 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Chargers at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Chargers166 of 174 plays carry both curves
(:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-J.Guyton for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −28.1 for BuccaneersExpected points −7.18 for BuccaneersThe model had Chargers 7 points higher than the market did.play 132
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 0:12TB +28% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-J.Guyton for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:08LAC +25% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left intended for 17-J.Watson INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Davis at LAC 22. 43-M.Davis for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 12:51TB +18% win prob(12:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-M.Evans to LAC 7 for 48 yards (24-N.Adderley).
2nd · 0:47LAC +15% win prob(:47) (Shotgun) 27-J.Kelley up the middle to LAC 6 for -3 yards (93-N.Suh). FUMBLES (93-N.Suh), RECOVERED by TB-45-D.White at LAC 8. 45-D.White to LAC 6 for 2 yards (72-R.Groy).
4th · 11:10TB +15% win prob(11:10) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 30-K.Vaughn for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:44LAC +11% win prob(1:44) 4-M.Badgley 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ke'Shawn Vaughn's 9-yard touchdown catch with 11:10 left in the 4th put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st10:05Cameron Brate·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+70–7
4th11:10Ke'Shawn Vaughn·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom BradyLead never changed again+731–35
4th2:44Ryan Succop·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+331–38
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Chargers0–9Buccaneers
325Total yards487
6.6Yards per play7.0
35%Success rate53%
40%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns4
4Explosive plays8
13First downs26
2Sacks taken0
2Turnovers1
The read
Buccaneers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Chargers: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.17Buccaneers: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.55Chargers: +0.55 expected points added per play
+0.28Buccaneers: +0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.50Chargers: −0.50 expected points added per play
−0.02Buccaneers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 49 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 70 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 3, Buccaneers 6.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 29 pts
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Buccaneers20.7%
right on their number · +3.7 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was TB's sack or hit rate, 20.7% against a season mean of 17.0% — and TB swings 7.8 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Herbert pass+31% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-J.Guyton for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 0:12 · Chargers · 3rd & 7 at LAC 28 · gained 72 · +7.18 EP · +30.9% win probability
164 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 97 yards from the LAC 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
42%
Yards
808
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.0888%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.2362%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.3533%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.0354%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.1613%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.2417%
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Buccaneers0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
Chargers0Buccaneers6
Chargers0Buccaneers7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Chargers 3
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
Chargers6Buccaneers7
Chargers7Buccaneers7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Chargers13Buccaneers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Chargers 32
Chargers14Buccaneers7
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 22 to the Chargers 24
Punt4 plays
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
Chargers20Buccaneers7
Chargers21Buccaneers7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Chargers 7 to the Buccaneers 19
No good10 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Chargers 26
Chargers24Buccaneers7
Field goal10 plays, from the Chargers 34 to the Buccaneers 35
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to midfield
Fumble lost1 play
Chargers24Buccaneers13
Chargers24Buccaneers14
Touchdown4 plays
The period ended2 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 29
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Chargers24Buccaneers20
Chargers24Buccaneers21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to the Chargers 28
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Chargers24Buccaneers27
Chargers24Buccaneers28
Touchdown16 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Buccaneers 22
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Chargers30Buccaneers28
Chargers31Buccaneers28
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 28
4th quarter40 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Chargers31Buccaneers34
Chargers31Buccaneers35
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Chargers 4
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 34
Chargers31Buccaneers38
Field goal13 plays, from the Buccaneers 21 to the Chargers 7
The period ended1 play
Intercepted1 play
The period ended7 plays, from the Buccaneers 41 to the Chargers 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
