2020 Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4, 2020 · NRG Stadium

Minnesota VikingsWinner

Houston Texans

HOU -3.5 upsetO 52.5 ✓DomeTexans closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Minnesota Vikings 31–23. Biggest swing: Q3 6:59, HOU +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 6:59MIN — HOU HOU ball · 2nd & 6MIN 53%

(6:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 15-W.Fuller to MIN 8 for 43 yards (20-J.Gladney).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 6:59HOU +14% win prob(6:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 15-W.Fuller to MIN 8 for 43 yards (20-J.Gladney).
Q3 · 3:31HOU +13% win prob(3:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson to HOU 39 for 23 yards (32-L.Johnson) [23-E.Murray].
Q3 · 7:29MIN +11% win prob(7:29) 5-D.Bailey 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.
Q1 · 1:18HOU +11% win prob(1:18) 2-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to HOU 34, Center-58-A.Cutting. 14-D.Carter to HOU 39 for 5 yards (23-M.Boone). FUMBLES (23-M.Boone), RECOVERED by MIN-85-D.Chisena at HOU 35. 85-D.Chisena to HOU 35 for no gain (35-K.Crossen). Penalty on HOU-35-K.Crossen, Offensive Holding, declined.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Texans
Offensive plays	63	62
Total yards	412 (edge)	386
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	6.2
Expected points added / play	0.25 (edge)	0.02
Success rate	56% (edge)	48%
Dropback rate	41%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.34 (edge)	0.12
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	-0.15
Third downs	5/12 (edge)	3/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	0	0

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

20/33, 300 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.4 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

16/22, 260 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

9.9 expected points added · +19.2% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

27 att, 130 yds, 2 TD

6.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

David JohnsonRB

16 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Adam ThielenWR

8/10 for 114 yds, 1 TD

48% of team targets · 5.8 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Will FullerWR

6/7 for 108 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 25	5	8	1:15	Punt
2	MIN	MIN 21	7	27	2:57	Punt
3	HOU	HOU 15	4	-3	1:30	Punt
4	MIN	MIN 44	8	56	4:13	Touchdown
5	HOU	HOU 25	8	16	2:17	Punt
6	MIN	MIN 20	4	4	1:41	Punt
7	MIN	HOU 35	7	22	3:26	Turnover on downs
8	HOU	HOU 25	11	43	3:55	Turnover on downs
9	MIN	MIN 25	14	75	6:53	Touchdown
10	HOU	HOU 32	9	48	1:26	Turnover on downs
11	MIN	MIN 25	2	3	0:27	End of half
12	MIN	MIN 23	5	4	2:11	Punt
13	HOU	HOU 27	8	73	3:02	Touchdown
14	MIN	MIN 25	6	48	2:23	Turnover on downs
15	HOU	HOU 45	6	48	1:54	Turnover on downs
16	MIN	MIN 25	10	75	4:49	Touchdown
17	HOU	HOU 25	5	7	1:31	Punt
18	MIN	MIN 27	7	73	3:20	Touchdown
19	HOU	HOU 23	11	82	4:58	Touchdown
20	MIN	MIN 23	9	25	2:59	Punt
21	HOU	HOU 24	10	64	1:41	Turnover on downs
22	MIN	MIN 5	2	0	1:12	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 82 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	16/22	260	1	0	3	9.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dalvin Cook	27	130	4.8	2	6.2
Alexander Mattison	7	17	2.4	1	-2.0
Adam Thielen	1	8	8.0	0	0.6
Kirk Cousins	4	5	1.3	0	1.1
C.J. Ham	1	2	2.0	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Adam Thielen	8	10	114	1	48%	5.8
Justin Jefferson	4	5	103	0	24%	8.7
Kyle Rudolph	2	2	27	0	10%	1.8
Dalvin Cook	2	2	16	0	10%	0.6
Irv Smith	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.5
Olabisi Johnson	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Eric Kendricks	5	5	0.0	1
Eric Wilson	1	6	0.0	0
Anthony Harris	3	2	0.0	0
George Iloka	4	1	0.0	0
Yannick Ngakoue	4	0	2.0	0
Jeff Gladney	4	0	0.0	1
Holton Hill	1	2	0.0	1
Cameron Dantzler	3	0	0.0	0
Shamar Stephen	1	2	0.0	0
Josh Metellus	2	0	0.0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	20/33	300	2	0	3	7.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Johnson	16	63	3.9	-0.4
Duke Johnson	5	24	4.8	0.1
Deshaun Watson	5	9	1.8	-5.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Will Fuller	6	7	108	1	23%	6.1
Jordan Akins	3	3	46	0	10%	3.7
Kenny Stills	2	4	39	1	13%	3.6
Randall Cobb	2	5	36	0	16%	-0.9
David Johnson	2	3	29	0	10%	1.4
Duke Johnson	3	4	21	0	13%	-0.5
Darren Fells	2	2	21	0	6%	1.3
Brandin Cooks	0	3	0	0	10%	-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Benardrick McKinney	3	5	0.0	0
Zach Cunningham	5	3	0.0	0
P.J. Hall	2	5	1.0	0
Bradley Roby	6	1	0.0	2
Brennan Scarlett	5	0	0.0	0
Vernon Hargreaves	3	1	0.0	0
Whitney Mercilus	2	2	2.0	0
Brandon Dunn	1	3	0.0	0
Tyrell Adams	1	2	0.0	0
Justin Reid	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -3.5
Closing total: 52.5
MIN moneyline: +154
HOU moneyline: -172

Texans closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 52.5; the game landed 54 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: MIN 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Mike Zimmer vs Bill O'Brien