For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
Minnesota Vikings 31, Texans 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 6:59, 2nd and 6, on Will Fuller — 14.0 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 6:59 · 2nd and 6
Will Fuller
Texans
(6:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 15-W.Fuller to MIN 8 for 43 yards (20-J.Gladney).
Dome
Texans closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Minnesota Vikings 31–23. Biggest swing: Q3 6:59, Texans +14.0% win probability on one snap.
14.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dan BaileyTexansQ3 7:29(7:29) 5-D.Bailey 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.
11.2pts
Justin JeffersonVikingsQ3 3:31(3:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson to HOU 39 for 23 yards (32-L.Johnson) [23-E.Murray].
12.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Texans at 0 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.20 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.15 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Texans at 6 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Vikings won this one — 5 of 12 on third down, against Texans at 3 of 12 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Vikings165 of 175 plays carry both curves
(6:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 15-W.Fuller to MIN 8 for 43 yards (20-J.Gladney).
Swing +14.0 for TexansExpected points +3.06 for TexansThe model had Vikings 7 points higher than the market did.play 107
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 6:59HOU +14% win prob(6:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 15-W.Fuller to MIN 8 for 43 yards (20-J.Gladney).
3rd · 3:31HOU +13% win prob(3:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson to HOU 39 for 23 yards (32-L.Johnson) [23-E.Murray].
3rd · 7:29MIN +11% win prob(7:29) 5-D.Bailey 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.
1st · 1:18HOU +11% win prob(1:18) 2-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to HOU 34, Center-58-A.Cutting. 14-D.Carter to HOU 39 for 5 yards (23-M.Boone). FUMBLES (23-M.Boone), RECOVERED by MIN-85-D.Chisena at HOU 35. 85-D.Chisena to HOU 35 for no gain (35-K.Crossen). Penalty on HOU-35-K.Crossen, Offensive Holding, declined.
4th · 1:15MIN +9% win prob(1:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 15-W.Fuller for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 15-W.Fuller.
2nd · 1:13HOU +9% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dalvin Cook's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 5:11 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:11Dalvin Cook·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
2nd12:45Dan Bailey·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap A.Cutting+310–0
2nd8:50Ka'imi Fairbairn·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.Weeks+310–3
Vikings ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.25Vikings: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.02Texans: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.34Vikings: +0.34 expected points added per play
+0.12Texans: +0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.20Vikings: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.15Texans: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 63 snaps at a 41% dropback rate against Texans’s 62 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 5, Texans 5.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
HOU's sack or hit rate, 30.8%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 4 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 3.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
HOU's pass rate over expected, −8.5 pts, sat 14.1 points below their season number of +5.5 pts — they ran more than the situation asked by 2.2 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Texans30.8%
off script — got home · +16.9 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+2.49× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.8%, 16.9 points above their season mean of 13.9% and 2.5 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Watson pass+18% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 15-W.Fuller to MIN 8 for 43 yards (20-J.Gladney).
Q3 6:59 · Texans · 2nd & 6 at HOU 49 · gained 43 · +3.06 EP · +17.9% win probability
163 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 77 yards from the HOU 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
47%
Yards
796
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.2063%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR25+0.4436%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR14+0.6643%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.0854%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.1336%
Texans0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR7+1.0471%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Vikings0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 33
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Texans 47
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 15 to the Texans 19
Vikings6Texans0
Vikings7Texans0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 44 to the Texans 5
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 41
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 24
The period ended3 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Texans 27
2nd quarter44 plays
Vikings10Texans0
Field goal6 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Texans 13
Vikings10Texans3
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Vikings 32
Vikings16Texans3
Vikings17Texans3
Touchdown14 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Texans 7
Vikings17Texans6
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 32 to the Vikings 10
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Vikings 27
Vikings17Texans12
Vikings17Texans13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 27 to the Vikings 24
No good7 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Texans 27
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Vikings17Texans16
Field goal6 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Vikings 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Vikings23Texans16
Vikings24Texans16
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Texans 9
The period ended4 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 27
4th quarter50 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Texans 32
Vikings30Texans16
Vikings31Texans16
Touchdown7 plays, from the Vikings 27 to the Texans 4
Vikings31Texans22
Vikings31Texans23
Touchdown13 plays, from the Texans 23 to the Vikings 24
Punt12 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Vikings 48
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Vikings 1
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Texans -3.5
Closing total
52.5
Vikings moneyline
+154
Texans moneyline
-172
Texans closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 54 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
Vikings 7 days · Texans 7 days
Coaches
Mike Zimmer vs Bill O'Brien
(1:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 88-J.Akins to MIN 20 for 26 yards (22-H.Smith, 54-E.Kendricks). HOU-88-J.Akins was injured during the play. He is Out. PENALTY on MIN-22-H.Smith, Disqualification, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 20.
3rd · 9:47HOU +8% win prob(9:47) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 19-A.Thielen pushed ob at HOU 36 for 39 yards (21-B.Roby).
1st · 10:08MIN +7% win prob(10:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 12 for -7 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
